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TPS NFL Weekly Locks: Week 5

by: JamieD On  Friday, October 9, 2009

pittsburgh-steelersTotal Pro Sports – Week four was yet another .500 weekend for us as our picks went 2-2.  The Denver Broncos used a big play by Brandon Marshall to pull of the victory as underdogs, while the Giants dominated the Chiefs from the start and easily built up a large enough cushion to cover the spread.  Unfortunately the Chargers comeback was shut down before they could bring the game to within six points and the Jets were able to neutralize a strong Saints offense, it was New Orleans’ defense that put the game out of reach.  As a result we now stand at 7-9 on the year and will now have to look to week five as our breakout week.

Here is how we see things shaping up in four games for week five of the NFL season.

Game: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -10 1/2

Reason: The Lions have been hit hard with injuries as both Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford may have to sit out in week five.  That would already be a big issue for Detroit but with the Steelers coming to town, that becomes even more problematic.  When you factor in the possibility of Troy Polamalu‘s return to the Pittsburgh secondary, it could be a long day for the Lions.  Big Ben and the Steelers offense should also be able to put up some big numbers against an weak Lions defense.  Expect Pittsburgh to score a lot and allow very little on route to the big win.

Game: Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills

Pick: Cleveland Browns +6

Reason: These are two teams that appear to be headed in opposite directions.  The Browns have yet to win a game this season, but they did put up a much better performance against the Cincinnati Bengals last week.  Derek Anderson seemed to get more comfortable with the offense as the game progressed and should be even better againsta  beat up Bills secondary.  The Bills on the other hand have looked worse with each passing week.  they were impressive in their first week loss to the Patriots, but the play of quarterback Trent Edwards has continued to decline from there and it hit an ultimate low last week when he threw three interceptions to a poor Dolphins secondary.  The Browns should be able to put some points on the board and contain Edwards an the Bills offense.  If they can do that, they will cover the spread in this one.

Game: Minnesota Vikings @ St. Louis Rams

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -10 1/2

Reason: Although I often prefer to stay away from large road favorites, here is another one that is too tempting to resist.  The Vikings have got themselves off to a hot start and are strong on both sides of the ball.  The opposite should be said of their week five opponent, the St. Louis Rams.  Brett Favre may not have the best track record in domes, but he seems to have got used to it playing in the Metrodome, so don’t expect that to be a problem.  Adrian Peterson and Favre should be able to put points on the board all game against a Rams team that has allowed an average of 27 points against per game.  With their defense expected to shut down a dreadful St. Louis offense, that should be more the minnesota offense should do more than enough to cover the double-digit spread.

Game: New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Pick: New York Jets -1 1/2

Reason: This AFC East divisional battle on Monday Night should be an interesting one.  The Dolphins boast a strong running game and it was at its best last week against the Buffalo Bills, but they will face a much tougher Jets defense in week five and that could spell trouble for them.  The Jets will be hungry after suffering their first loss of the season and Mark Sanchez should be able to bounce back after a disappointing performance against the Saints.  The Dolphins pass defense has been rather poor (ranked 24th) and that should allow the Jets to put up some points.  As for the Miami offense, expect Rex Ryan’s blitz schemes to confuse Chad Henne and with the ground game limited against a strong Jets front seven, points may be hard to come by for the Dolphins.  It should be a close one, but look for the Jets to pull it off on the road and get back to their winning ways.

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