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TPS NFL Weekly Locks: Week 10
It took us half of the season, but I think it is safe to say we may finally have things under control after our second consecutive 3-1 week. The Green Bay Packers were an enormous disappointment, losing the game outright to a lowly Bucs team, but not even that was enough to dampen our spirits as the rest of week nine’s games were a success. Carolina took an early lead, and although they squandered it late, they were still able to hold on and cover the 13-point spread. A late touchdown pass from Rivers to Vincent Jackson gave the Chargers the cover, and the outright victory (as we also predicted). As for the Monday night game between the Broncos and Steelers, it was close, but as we preached, the Steelers defense did enough to keep it under the 40 1/2 total. The back-to-back winning weekends now bring us to 18-18 on the year. We are now back at the .500 mark, and with half the season remaining there is still plenty of time to build up the winnings.
Here is how we see things shaping up in the following four week 10 games.
Game: Denver Broncos @ Washington Redskins
Pick: Denver Broncos -3 1/2
Reason: It has been a rough season thus far for the Washington Redskins, and with eight games still to play that likely will not change anytime soon. Currently sitting at 2-6, their only wins have come against the St. Louis Rams and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, while they have lost to the likes of the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs. This week they return home to take on the Denver Broncos who have lost two straight since starting the season 6-0. They will be looking to bounce back in a strong way and prove that their stellar first half record was no fluke. Denver’s run defense has been exposed somewhat in recent games, but that should not be a worry against a Washington team that will be without starting running back Clinton Portis (concussion), and backup Ladell Betts is also nursing a sprained ankle (his status remains questionable). With their offensive line also experiencing several injuries, it may be a long day for quarterback Jason Campbell and the Redskins offense. Expect the Broncos to cover this rather low spread.
Game: New Orleans Saints @ St. Louis Rams
Pick: New Orleans Saints -13 1/2
Reason: The Saints ground defense has been somewhat exposed recently and they have struggled to assert themselves early against the Dolphins and Panthers, but that should not be much of an issue when they travel to the Edward Jones Dome to take on the 1-7 Rams. St. Louis currently ranks 22nd against the pass, but things could be a lot worse had teams not been able to run the clock out at the end of games after establishing rather large leads. Drew Brees will get the air show under way early and with Marc Bulger expected to do a lot of passing down the stretch, you can count on the Saints defense to add a score or two of their own, as they have done throughout the year. That should be more than enough to outscore a poor Rams offense and cover the 13 1/2-point spread in the process.
Game: Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders
Pick: Under 37
Reason: This may be one of the worst games to bet on as doing so would force you to sit and watch two horrible offenses take on each other. So what is the best way to make such an experience enjoyable? Bet the under! Both the Chiefs and the Raiders have allowed an average of over 25 points against per game, but they each rank 30th and 32nd respectively in scoring offense. What this means is while their defenses may be susceptible, that is only the case when they are playing teams with offensive capabilities above what you would expect from division II NCAA schools. The Chiefs have been able to score an average of 15.8 PPG while Oakland has posted an embarrassing 9.8 PPG through their first eight games. Unless it is the defenses doing the scoring, don’t expect much to come out of this comedy of errors. Go with the under here.
Game: Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Pick: Carolina Panthers -1 1/2
Reason: With the Saints currently sitting at 8-0, top spot in the NFC South may already be decided, but that has not taken away from the importance of this divisional match up between the Carolina Panthers and the Atlanta Falcons. Both clubs are still in the wild card hunt and will be looking to make an impact down the stretch in hopes of securing a playoff birth. The Panthers have come on strong in recent weeks, beating up on the Arizona Cardinals before losing a close one to the Saints. Now they will take on the Falcons in a rematch of their week 2 game looking for revenge, and with their running game back on track we think they will get just that. Both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have been great in recent weeks as the Panthers continue to look more and more like the team that won their division last season. If they can establish that ground attack once again in this one, it should be enough to put away the Falcons 24th ranked run defense. Look for the home team to take this one in what shold be a close game.
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