2010 NFL Weekly Locks: Week 11
It was an even-steven week ten for our picks, however, that 2-2 record can be quite deceiving. Why, you ask? For the answer to that question, we turn to the battle between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions. Sometimes patience can be a virtue, and it was for us in this game. While the spread on Friday, and the one we posted here, read -2.5 for the Bills, that quickly dropped to -1 come Sunday morning. And as it would turn out, the Bills would manage to hold onto a two-point victory for their first win of the season. So while we will still chalk that one up as a loss on this site, we did manage to come away with a win in our pockets, which is where it counts the most.
Couple that with a high scoring affair between the Giants and Cowboys, an easy blow-out victory for the Bucs, and a win, but failure to cover for the 49ers, and we were left with a .500 record on the week. That leaves us at 16-23-1 on the season. With only seven weeks remaining in the season, we are beginning to run out of time as we look to march ourselves back above the .500 mark for the season. Hopefully we can begin to make a big charge this Sunday.
Here is a look at our TotalProSports.com 2010 NFL Weekly Locks for week eleven.
The Game: Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots
The Pick: Over 49.5
The Reason: Since 2003, these two teams have faced one another each of the past seven regular seasons. Of those seven games, four have gone over the total of 49.5 points, while three have gone under. Although, we should note that one of those unders came during the 2008 season, when Brady was out with a knee injury. The other two games that fell under 49.5 points did so just barely, with totals of 44 and 47 points coming in the 2007 and 2006 seasons, respectively. It is no secret that when the Pats and Colts play one another, points are bound to be scored, and this year should be no different. Especially when you consider the fact that the Patriots and their inexperienced secondary have allowed an average of 23.8 points against per game, while the Colts will be without several of their starting defensive players. Expect both Brady and Manning to put on an air show as this game turns into a high-scoring shootout at Gillette Stadium.
The Game: Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings
The Pick: Packers -3
The Reason: The last time these two teams met was in week 7, when the Packers came away with a 28-24 home victory. So will home field advantage be enough to help the Vikings cover the 3-point spread and come away with the victory this time around? Don’t count on it! Brett Favre is only getting more banged up. As is Percy Harvin. And they no longer have Randy Moss. When you also consider the fact that the Packers will be well rested coming off their bye, it is not hard to see why we believe they will be able to stick the final nail in the Vikings’ 2010 coffin.
The Game: Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
The Pick: Over 47
The Reason: The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the biggest disappointments this season, and much of that has to do with the fact that their defense has been incredibly lousy. Going into week 11, they have allowed the third most points against per game (28). We should also note that each of the Cowboys’ last four games and five of their last six have gone over 47 total points. When you also take into consideration the fact that they will be up against a Lions team that has allowed an average of 22.4 points against per game, it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see this game go well over the total.
Game: Denver Broncos @ San Diego Chargers
Pick: Over 50
Reason: On Monday night, fans will be treated to a battle between two AFC West division rivals that boast two of the better scoring offenses in the league, and two of the weaker scoring defenses. The Chargers and Broncos offenses have each averaged 26.6 and 22.6 points per game, respectively, while allowing an average of 21.9 and 28 points against per game. This game will also feature two of the top passers in the league as Philip Rivers and Kyle Orton currently rank one and two in the NFL in passing yards. Look for this game to turn into an air show on Monday night as these two passers light up the sky with footballs, and light up the scoreboard with points.
Overall Record: 16-23-1 (Last Week’s Record: 2-2)