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Here Is A Timeline Graph Detailing The Red Sox Epic Collapse

by: JamieD On  Thursday, September 29, 2011

According to the folks at SportsClubStats.com, the Boston Red Sox entered the 2011 MLB season with a 27.33% chance of making the post-season.  After losing their first six game of the season, their chances of making the playoffs fell to 3.81%.  Following a loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on April 15, they would fall to 2-10 on the season and their odds of making the playoffs reached its lowest point, a 1.97% chance.

They would turn things around from there, giving themselves a 95.72% change of making the post-season after improving their record to 44-29 by June 21st.  Their odds of playing baseball in October would remain above 99% throughout most of August, and with a 9-game lead over the Rays in the AL Wild Card standings, the Sox stood a 99.85% chance of making the playoffs on September 2nd.

However, things went downhill from there.  After losing three of four to the Rays and being swept by the Orioles last week, their odds dropped to 80.9%.  A weekend series with the Yankees would improve their chances to 87.5% heading into their final series of the season against the Orioles, but the Rays would eventually take advantage of that other 12.5%, capping off their incredible run with an unthinkable comeback against the Yankees last night, coupled with an epic ninth inning collapse by the Red Sox.

If you’d like to see how the Red Sox playoff hopes looked at each point in the season, you can click on the graph below, which will take you to an interactive graph that provides the odds of the Sox making the playoffs after each game of the season.  And the next time someone tells you that there is a 99% chance your team will, or won’t, make the post-season, you can tell them that 1% is more than enough.  After all, 0.15% was all the Rays needed in 2011.

red sox collapse graph

Hat Tip – [SportsClubStats.com]




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