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2011 Weekly NFL Locks: Week 4

by: JamieD On  Saturday, October 1, 2011
Tags:  Gambling   NFL   Picks  

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Things were looking great for the New England Patriots and terrible for the Detroit Lions through the first half of each of those games last week, but that all changed in the second half, as the Bills mounted an incredible comeback victory over Tom Brady and company, while the Lions were able to march back from 20 points down, to beat the Vikings in overtime.  Unfortunately, Detroit was only able to come away with a push.  While that did save us from going 0-3, it also left us without a victory last week.  Hopefully we can turn things around and get back to our winning ways in week 4.

Here is a look at our picks for this weekend’s games.

Game: Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Lions +2.5
Reason: Here is a word of advice to all of you gamblers out there.  If you can bump this spread up to +3 for the Lions, do it!  Why, you ask?  Because the Cowboys’ last nine regular season games have all been tight games that have been decided by a field goal, or less.  Detroit continues to roll, as they are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight and they have won four of their last five on the road.  Look for the Lions’ offense to put points on the board, and Ndamukong Suh to give Tony Romo fits as Detroit covers the spread and comes away with the win.

Game: Buffalo Bills @ Cincinnati Bengals
Pick: Bills -3
Reason: This spread appears to be moving in favor of the Bengals, so if you can get the Bills at -2.5, or have the option of moving them down to that, I suggest you do it.  For anyone who doubted them, the Bills proved that they are the real deal during their incredible upset victory over the Patriots.  They were able to pick off Brady four times, and now they will take on a rookie quarterback in the Bengals’ Andy Dalton.  Buffalo has won the last eight meetings between these two teams, and they have covered the spread in seven of those games.  After the Bengals couldn’t beat the 49ers or keep the game within three points at home last week, we are having a tough time believing they will be able to do so against a much better Bills team this week.

Game: Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers
Pick: Chargers -7
Reason: Philip Rivers has struggled thus far this season, but he should be able to get back on track against a Dolphins defense that has allowed eight touchdowns through the air and an average of 311 passing yards against through the first three games of the season.  Perhaps the only bright spot for the 0-3 Dolphins this season has been rookie running back Daniel Thomas, but he didn’t make the trip with the team to San Diego due to a hamstring injury.  Look for the Chargers to dominate, as they win this game by more than a touchdown.

Last Week’s Record: (0-2-1), 2011 Record: (3-4-2)




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