| Pos |
Team |
Player |
Comments |
Best Case/Worst Case |
Change |
| 1 |
 |
Eugene Monroe, Virginia, OT |
Monroe has emerged as the top LT to this point, and is better against speed than Andre Smith. Stafford is the popular pick here, but poses a risk that Detroit cannot afford to take. |
B- Walter Jones
W- Chris Samuels |
6 |
| 2 |
 |
Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech, WR |
With the top OT going number one, the Rams decide not to reach on a lineman. Instead, they take the best player and biggest lock in the draft to eventually replace aging Torry Holt. The thinking here is value. |
B-Michael Irvin
W-Keyshawn Johnson |
- |
| 3 |
 |
Matt Stafford, Georgia, QB |
Filling a desperate need, the Chiefs make a desperate decision in taking the biggest arm of the draft. They have their work cut out for them though, as he needs a lot of work from the neck up. Boom or bust. |
B-Jay Cutler
W-Kyle Boller |
- |
| 4 |
 |
Mark Sanchez, USC, QB |
Huge upside, but needs some polishing. Hasselbeck's future is up in the air in Seattle, and his best days are behind him. Sanchez will take no more than one year to learn, and will be ready to lead in 2010. |
B-Carson Palmer
W-Trent Edwards |
- |
| 5 |
 |
Aaron Curry, Wake Forrest, OLB |
A one man army! Curry will be a beast pass rusher from jump in Cleveland's 3-4. A no brainer for a team that needs a lot of help. |
B-Demarcus Ware
W-Julian Peterson |
- |
| 6 |
 |
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia, RB |
Moreno is one of the top handful of prospects in this draft, and could end up in the top five. Cincinnati needs a big play back, and has for years, to take the pressure off of Palmer. |
B-Ladainian Tomlinson
W-Brian Westbrook |
13 |
| 7 |
 |
Andre Smith, Alabama, OT |
Al Davis will think about taking speedster Jeremy Maclin here, but will get better value with Smith, who will protect Jamarcus Russell as he learns to read NFL defenses. |
B-Walter Jones
W-Leonard Davis |
6 |
| 8 |
 |
Michael Oher, Ole Miss., OT |
Jacksonville lands the franchise tackle they desperately need, but takes a slight risk on Oher. Great tangibles, but must improve consistency. |
B-Orlando Pace
W-D'Brickeshaw Furgeson |
2 |
| 9 |
 |
BJ Raji, Boston College, DT |
With the hiring of Dom Capers as the new DC, Green Bay needs a monster nose tackle to anchor its new 3-4 scheme. Look no further at 330 plus pounds. Raji's play during Senior Bowl week has made him a virtual top ten lock. |
B-Kris Jenkins
W-Barry Cofield |
- |
| 10 |
 |
Jason Smith, Baylor, OT |
Fans may want a "sexier" pick than a tackle here, but the 49ers led the NFL in sacks allowed in '08. This upgrades two spots on the O-line by allowing Joe Staley to move to the right side, where he belongs. |
B-Tony Boselli
W-Joe Staley |
4 |
| 11 |
 |
Brian Orakpo, Texas, DE |
The best pure DE in the draft with enormous ability, Orakpo may not slide to eleven, but he will not get past the Bills. Buffalo desperately needs a pass rusher, and this guy is explosive. |
B-Julis Peppers
W-Adewale Ogunleye |
- |
| 12 |
 |
Rey Maualuga, USC, ILB |
Denver will convert to the 3-4, and gets the best ILB in the draft, powering up that run defense which surrendered an average of 5.0 yards per rush in '08. |
B-Junior Seau
W-Lavar Arrington |
4 |
| 13 |
 |
Everett Brown, Florida State, DE |
A need pick here. An aging group of ends has caused diminished productivity at that position. The Redskins will be considering the future with this decision. |
B-Mario Williams
W-Jamaal Anderson |
- |
| 14 |
 |
Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State, CB |
In a weak draft for DB's, New Orleans takes the best one in the draft. Speed question marks have Jenkins sliding out of the top ten. He will help sure up that porous pass defense. |
B-Champ Baily
W-Antoine Winfield |
6 |
| 15 |
 |
Vontae Davis, Illinois, CB |
Davis slides to Houston, where he will play opposite Duante Robinson, dramatically improving the secondary and the pass rush. |
B-Nnamdi Asomugha
W-Will Allen |
1 |
| 16 |
 |
James Laurinaitis, Ohio State, ILB |
Excellent tackler with good range and instincts. Laurinaitis will be a good fit as a 3-4 ILB, improving San Diego's run defense. |
B-Derrick Brooks
W-Andy Katzenmoyer |
12 |
| 17 |
 |
Jeremy Maclin, Missouri, WR |
The Jets desperately need someone to stretch the field. Maclin is a big play guy who can do just that. It's a mystery who will be throwing to him though. The Favre watch is fully underway. |
B-Santana Moss
W-Devin Hester |
2 |
| 18 |
 |
Michael Johnson, Georgia Tech, DE |
Pure speed and agility! A sack specialist, which the Bears have a great need for. Best player available considering the needs they have. |
B-Javon Kearse
W-Gaines Adams |
- |
| 19 |
 |
Percy Harvin, Florida, WR |
The new regime in Tampa is committed to building an explosive offense. Harvin is the definition of explosive. |
B-Steve Smith
W-Sinorice Moss |
2 |
| 20 |
 |
Peria Jerry, Ole Miss, DT |
Trade From Dallas: Despite what I think the Lions should do here, they opt to improve the D-line, with the top 4-3 tackle available. Excellent value pick! |
B-Tommie Harris
W-Broderick Bunkley |
8 |
| 21 |
 |
Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State, TE |
McNabb needs this for Philly to stay in the hunt. There are no wide outs available at 21 that pose good enough value to pass up the best TE in this draft. |
B-Tony Gonzalez
W-Jason Witten |
- |
| 22 |
 |
Josh Freeman, Kansas State, QB |
Three glaring needs for the Vikes: QB, WR, and DB. Minnesota takes a bit of a reach on a huge quarterback with a huge arm, and huge up-side. |
B-Ben Roethlisberger
W-Jim Druckenmiller |
- |
| 23 |
 |
Aaronn Maybin, Penn State, OLB |
Slightly undersized backer who plays big with excellent speed from the edge. The Pats OLB's aren't the youngest group in the league. Maybin will fit well in the New England 3-4, and produce some much needed sacks. |
B-Shawn Merriman
W-Manny Lawson |
- |
| 24 |
 |
William Moore, Missouri, S |
I believe that reports of Moore's "stock falling" are seriously exaggerated. He has not performed well of late, but Atlanta simply cannot ignore the tangibles. 6'0", 223lbs, 4.44 speed. |
B-LaRon Landry
W-Josh Bullocks |
1 |
| 25 |
 |
DJ Moore, Vanderbilt, CB |
Moore is clearly the third best corner in the draft, and will improve the Dolphin secondary quickly. |
B-Ronde Barber
W-Kelvin Hayden |
18 |
| 26 |
 |
Brian Cushing, USC, OLB |
Baltimore needs a speed receiver badly, but are forced to replace free agent Terrell Suggs with the best OLB available, keeping that defense an elite group. |
B-Terrell Suggs
W-Bobby Carpenter |
- |
| 27 |
 |
Chris Wells, Ohio State, RB |
Wells runs a 4.5 and slides to 27. The Colts have to get stronger in the running game. Indy becomes a two-headed backfield, with Wells and Addai. Wells obviously plays the "Smash" role. |
B-Larry Johnson
W-Eddie George |
- |
| 28 |
 |
Ebon Britton, Arisona, OT |
Trade From Carolina: Both Eagle starting tackles are in their mid 30's. Britton can play either side, and will replace Tra Thomas eventually. |
B-Jordan Gross
W-Ryan Diem |
4 |
| 29 |
 |
Kenny Britt, Rutgers, WR |
Britt is 6'4" and highly athletic. If he runs in the 4.4 area at the combine, he will go higher. Britt will begin filling the void left by Plaxico Burress, if Plex does not return, or will be a nice compliment to him. |
B--Plaxico Burress
W-Reggie Williams |
- |
| 30 |
 |
Derrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland, WR |
Tennessee needs a deep threat receiver to complete their offense. Heyward-Bey is tall and fast, but raw. Boom or bust pick. |
B-Santonio Holmes
W-Charles Rodgers |
- |
| 31 |
 |
LeSean McCoy, Pittsburgh, RB |
In Arizona's offense, this makes perfect sense. Edge James probably won't be coming back, leaving a big hole to fill. This becomes a two back system, with McCoy as "Dash". |
B-Chris Johnson
W-Kevin Faulk |
- |
| 32 |
 |
Alex Mack, California, C |
Pittsburgh is thrilled that Mack has slid to them. Since Roethlisburger won't get rid of the ball on time, they need guys to protect longer. |
B-Andre Gurode
W-Matt Birk |
12 |
I really think that someone(s) is going to make a huge mistake and over estimate the impact of crabtree’s injury and he’ll slide in the draft. Yeah he came into the combine a little shorter than expected, but he’s still the real deal with massive arms and hands.
What I dont understand is how his foot injury was only discovered now. These players and their agents pour in tens of thousands of dollars in their preparation for the combine/pro day/draft, and they overlooked this injury? That’s worse management than whoever is advising Andre Smith.
Chad, I dont think in any way that there’s going to be a team that trades with the Lions for the top spot. It just takes too much to do so. Also, I dont think any team is going to be that enamored with Stafford/Sanchez to risk it all to move up and take them. Clearly the Lions would love an opportunity to trade away #1 and get more picks, but I don’t see that happening. My prediction is that they’re going to take Monroe or Smith.
Sy…I agree with you in part (you know I could never agree with anyone completely). You’re right about his strength and hands, and his skills as a receiver are unmatched in this draft. That being said, I don’t think the injury itself will hurt his draft stock, unless he is unable to run a 40 before draft day. Many personnel people question his speed, and need to see that he runs a sub 4.5. If he can’t run before the draft, it may cause some of them to pass on him in the top five. The bigger concern, I think, is that this cannot be a surprise to the Crabtree camp. They had to know about this, which brings his integrity or character into question. Not so much for me, but for some “high moral ground” guys. Long story short, if he does slide, he will not get past Al Davis at number seven.
Poor Andre Smith…his stock fell off a cliff because of his mouth and his actions at the combine. The biggest thing that concerns me is the fact that when asked if he was the best tackle in the draft, he was uncomfortable answering. NO CONFIDENCE whatsoever. That is the classic sign of an underachiever. Coversely, Jason Smith impressed me with his answer, acting almost offended at the notion that he was not the number one guy. “All you have to do is put on my Baylor tape, and its obvious I’m the best.”…or something to that effect. He also said he tries to “physically assault” people on the football field. He is highly talented, a fierce competitor, and has a mean streak. I like it. I LIKE IT A LOT!
You are probably right about the Lions and the top pick. A lot will depend on Stafford. As much as it pains me to say it, I fear that the Lions will take Stafford if they can’t trade the pick. I’m with you, and would take the best left tackle, but the upside of a strong-armed young quarterback may hypnotize them into making that choice. Lots of drama, and it’s just beginning! Can’t wait to see Sanchez, Shonn Greene, Chris Wells and others tomorrow.
Hey Chad what would you think about going with your #1 pick, then grabbing up an LB like Cushing with #2, then in Rd2 or top of Rd3 trying to get a decent value DT like that Sammie Hill, a big dude like Raji to plug up the middle? Maybe I’m looking at it as a “best value” approach rather than “best player available” tactic.
I’m sure you will address all that in Version 4.0 soon! Man I really hope we do NOT come out of this with a QB. It’s not that I think stafford be bad for the team or doesn’t have the potential to be a star, I think it’s just a case of bad timing for this team to be making this pick.
However I did read that after the wine-n-dine he had with Lions management he said he’s ready when they are to negotiate. Makes me wonder if they led him to believe he’s the one they want first. I’m pondering if in order to get the glory of being #1 he’s willing to give them a reasonable deal in order to get some guaranteed money and ensure he doesn’t fall any lower, then also there’d be no hard-nosed negotiating or holdouts after the draft and they could get right to work with him. IF they are picking him, it does make sense but it’d be a shame if they did all that before the combine really even started and gave them a chance to see what else was out there.
klungemonger…Those are not bad suggestions. Everything depends on the Stafford situation. If they take him at number one, they will almost certainly take a left tackle at number twenty. If they go tackle at number one, then Cushing is a decent option at twenty. If Peria Jerry is there, I don’t see them passing on him at that spot. He likely won’t be available anyway, so they could do a lot worse than Cushing. I think the SAM role is a better fit for Cushing than some of the other scenarios he could land in, which makes him less than perfect for Detroit, as Ernie Sims currently holds that billet. They would benefit more from a MIKE linebacker like Maualuga or Laurinaitis than Cushing, or a pass rushing DE like Robert Ayers or Kruger. I doubt that the Lions will target a 3-4 nose tackle of the BJ Raji mold. Their scheme will require pressure by the front four, which is usually a weakness for most nose tackles.
“Best player available” is just another way of saying “best value”. If you take the best player on the board, there is no question that he poses the best value. Who the best player actually is, of course, is highly subjective and no one can be certain how the Lions will arrange its draft board.
Whoever Detroit takes number one will almost certainly be signed before the draft. In this economy, with all of the problems that exist on its roster, Detroit will make sure that the number one pick is signable quickly. In terms of getting a good deal, financially, the Lions would have to look at someone other than Stafford. He will not be willing to negotiate down just to be drafted number one. He will still make more than any non quarterback selected at number one, even if he slides to the Chiefs at three (just like Matt Ryan’s deal from last year). If money is that important to them, they won’t take Stafford.
Well, they do have $30mil in cap space, even before the cuts and renegotiating with Culpepper.
I guess what I meant by “best value” is someone like Smith was last year who is underrated and wouldn’t have been a reach had they been taken higher. Or if a mess of teams are drafting positions of need instead of BPA so they slide because of that. Do I make any sense or are these incorrect assumptions? I got lots to learn still…
klungemonger…You make perfect sense. We’re just using differrent terminology, but I agree with your point. They need to take the best players on the board. Smith was huge last year, and was one of my favorite players in the draft. I thought he was one of the best running backs in the draft, and should’ve been talked about with guys like McFadden, Jones, Stewart, Mendenhall, and Johnson. The rest of the NFL simply “missed” on Smith, as they missed on Tom Brady when he entered the draft. Those types of situations are rare, but Detroit can expect to find first round guys in the second, second round guys in the third, and so on. Being at the top of each round is a huge advantage, and should result in an awesome draft!
with andre smith just killing his stock this weekend. where does he fall in the battle of offensive lineman
jason smith
eugene monroe
michael oher
warren beatty
andre smith
eben britton
curry, cushing, laurninatis all looked good today. but i think clay matthews really help himself today. what about maulauga injury, does that hurt him.
Scott I would guess that since he’s a 72-yr old actor, Warren Beatty will likely fall to a later round in this draft, but I hear Connecticut OT William Beatty is a real contender…
Sorry, couldn’t resist that one!
Yeah Chad I am pretty stoked we have basically 3 first-rounders. Now if they can only get them right this time…
scott…Its official, Andre Smith is a bona fide idiot! Having said that, he’s still the best run blocking tackle in this draft. He will no longer be considered in the top five for sure. Whether or not he makes it out of the top ten will depend on what he does from now until draft day. Players with his abilities are rare, and that is an inescapable fact. I think that Jacksonville is loving this, and will snatch him up if he’s still there at number eight. On the other hand, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him slide to the 49ers at ten. I doubt Mike Singletary will worry about being able to motivate anyone. Worst case scenario, he continues his trend of bad decisions, and slides to Detroit, at number 20. If they take Stafford number one, there is no way they pass up a player of Smith’s calibre at 20.
I have my tackles (up to the minute) as follows:
1. Eugene Monroe (just SLIGTLY ahead) (LT)
2. Jason Smith (LT)
3. Andre Smith (LT?)
5. Michael Oher (LT?)
6. William Beatty (LT?)
7. Eben Britton (RT)
There is a slim chance that Oher could go ahead of Smith, but that will be a reach provoked by desperate need at left tackle. I’m not sold, as of yet, that Oher or Beatty can be starting left tackles in the NFL. Some would disagree with me. We’ll have to see.
Curry impressed the HELL out of me! To run a 4.56 at his size is insane. I can’t see him sliding past Kansas City at this point. Cushing “is what I thought he was”, the top 4-3 SAM linebacker in the draft. I don’t think his stock moves much. Laurinaitis may have helped himself, and has proven to be an intense young man with many physical gifts. I still don’t see him as a game changing hitter. He stays about where I had him, maybe moving up a few spots. You’re absolutely right about Matthews. He made a real case for himself to be considered at the end of round one, and will now be seen as an excellent value early in round two. I’m not sure he can play SAM though. I see him as an awesome WILL backer in the NFL. Those guys are usually not first rounders, but I may be surprised.
Maualuga will be fine. There were question marks about him before the combine. Any team that was swayed by those questions will also be concerned about the injury. Any team that was not concerned before will probably not worry about this either. He’s a tough guy who can flat out hit. He will be an immediate impact player, and will not slide due to injury. Let’s be honest, he wasn’t going to run a 4.5 anyway. It would be a different story if he were a wide receiver instead of a middle linebacker.
klungemonger…Very funny stuff! The Oscars last night have all of us thinking about Hollywood. By the way, I think you could get four first rounders. This draft is about 75 players deep, in my view, meaning that you could find guys with first round ability all the way to the 75th pick. Detroit’s third round selection is number 65 overall. Another Kevin Smith perhaps? Keep your fingers crossed.
I wonder if it’s worth the gamble to go with a DE/DT first then see if Andre Smith has slid to #20. Would he still be a good value there, or is that just not realistic even after his combine silliness? Or is he showing lack of discipline and inability to maintain game-day condition in the off-season and we should pass either way?
klungemonger…Highly unlikely that Smith will fall that far. As the combine finishes up, I’m getting more concerned that Detroit will take Stafford. That decision would demand that they take a tackle at number 20. William Beatty will be the best one on the board at 20.
His problems say more about his lack of maturity than anything else. He will grow up quickly in the NFL. I do think teams will be careful in evaluating him. He’ll probably end up going to a team with a disciplinarian style head coach. You won’t see Lovie Smith or Tony Dungee types drafting someone with Smith’s issues. Mike Singletary or Bill Parcels types would maximize his abilities.
well since we can get warren beatty in later rounds, had to change my philosphy. but very good, catching that….
but watching the cb’s and safeties, not a great class. when you look at the speed factor, right now…. vontae davis looked good compared to malcolm jenkins. u have to be even more impressed by aaron curry. maybe we can draft aaron curry #1 and make him our lock down corner… of course i jest… but it looks like nic harris and kevin ellison our headed for the linebacker corps(not fast enough to play safety), but louis delmas looked very quick. plus i have to like him, i graduated from western michigan. and clemons from clemson and hodge from tcu also have some speed……..
scott…Definately a weak DB class. With only two lock first round corners, and no safeties locked to go in round one, this is the worst DB class that I can recall. There will be a run on both in round two. My draft update, which should be posted on Thursday, includes a total of eight going in round two. You hit the nail on the head, that top-line speed is just not there in this class, at ALL positions.
This is probably the deepest tackle class I’ve ever seen, with first year starters being drafted all the way through round three. It is absolutely the best LB class I’ve ever seen. Has Aaron Curry made a case to be the first linebacker to go number one overall? It’s possible. Detroit is talking to him.
Zoiks, lots of free agent activity already! Is your draft mostly set already or will you wait to include some of this movement before next Thursday? Especially the big bomb drop, Chiefs grabbing Cassel AND Vrabel in one swoop! Lions pick up another veteran corner for Kitna, they seem to have a knack for taking advantage of J.Jones! I bet we could give him his first-rounder back for DeMarcus Ware!
Haynesworth to the Skins! Guess they won’t need Everett Brown now either! Free agency really is jacking up many mocks. What’s your take on Lions signing Maurice Morris for 3yrs? Another old dude but probably got more left in him than R.Johnson did.
we have updated our 2009 NFL Mock Draft 4.0 check it out!!
http://www.totalprosports.com/blog/index.php/2009/03/2009-nfl-mock-draft-4/
After seeing how free-agency is going for the lions, i think they will draft like this.
1a- matthew stafford qb georgia
1b- james laurinaitis ilb ohio st
2 – michael johnson de geor tech if not there they will chose between( duke robinson, william beatty, ron brace, darius butler or alphonso smith)
3- herman johnson or craig urbik ol
3b dorell scott dt clemson
i think they will draft stafford, then get there qb on defense with laurnaitis… then build there offensive and defensive lines. look for them to find a wr and te later.
i showed you what i think the lions will do…. now this is what i would do
1a- aaron curry olb wake forest( u know i like this guy)
1b- peria jerry dt mississippi
2- duke robinson g oklahoma
3a- herman johnson t lsu
3b- joesph franz ilb florida atlantic
scott…Check out the newest update (4.0). The link is listed by “Author, Editor” one comment above yours. I’m taking all questions and comments regarding the draft there. I like your picks. I just think Detroit will take Stafford, at this point. That will cause a chain reaction throughout the rest of their draft.