2009 NFL Mock Draft: 5.0
NFL Mock Draft: | 1.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 4.0 | 5.0 |
Updated (Mar 17, 2009)
We have updated to NFL Mock Draft 6.0 Check it out!
Total Pro Sports - Introducing the Total Pro Sports Mock Draft, version 5.0. Many changes have occurred in the first three rounds as a result of the recent scouting combine, pro days, free agency, and other off-season transactions. With free agency still fully underway, you can expect frequent changes in the coming weeks as team needs change.
It is our intention to add more, more, MORE to this section as the draft approaches, making TPS your one stop shop for draft analysis. Changing team needs, player workout results, in-depth film study, character assessments, and all the other "measurables" play significant roles in where players are drafted. As new information becomes available, watch as players move up or down the draft board, possibly landing on your favorite team's roster.
Leave your comments or questions below and share your thoughts with us, as well as other NFL fans around the globe. I will respond to as many questions and comments as I can, so check back often. Let's talk talent!
Best Case - Refers to a player's "up-side". My view of what a player is likely to become in the NFL, in terms of production or equivalent talent, assuming that he reaches his full potential.
Worst Case - Refers to a player's "down-side" or "bust" potential. If you find a great NFL player's name used to describe a draftee's worst case scenario, then I am not concerned about a bust possibility, as is the case with Knowshon Moreno.
(Best Case/Worst Case are used only in the first round)
Lets take a look at the 2009 Mock NFL Draft: 5.0
Round 1
| Pos | Team | Player | Comments | Best Case/Worst Case | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ![]() |
Jason Smith, Baylor, OT | Recent off-season moves has made it less likely that the Lions will draft a QB number one. Smith is the most talented left tackle in the draft. | B- Walter Jones
W- D'Brickeshaw Furgeson |
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| 2 | ![]() |
Eugene Monroe, Virginia, OT | A top heavy class of tackles allows the Rams to select the franchise left tackle to replace aging, and often injured, Orlando Pace. | B- Tony Boselli
W- Chris Samuels |
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| 3 | ![]() |
Aaron Curry, Wake Forest, OLB | With Cassel now a Chief, KC is able to take the top defender in the draft. Curry is one of the most talented football players I've ever seen--PERIOD. | B- Demarcus Ware
W-Julian Peterson |
- |
| 4 | ![]() |
Matt Stafford, Georgia, QB | Hasselbeck's days in Seattle are numbered. New coach drafts new quarterback. What else is new? This is ideal for the young Stafford, giving him much needed time to develop. | B- Jay Cutler
W- Kyle Boller |
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| 5 | ![]() |
Brian Orakpo, Texas, OLB | An explosive pass rusher who could produce ten plus sacks as a rookie. A no brainer for a team that needs a lot of help. | B-Julius Peppers
W- Adewale Ogunleye |
- |
| 6 | ![]() |
Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech, WR | With both value left tackles gone and TJ now a Seahawk...Duh! | B- Michael Irvin
W- Keyshawn Johnson
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| 7 | ![]() |
Andre Smith, Alabama, OT | Okay, so Al Davis decides not to draft the speedy receiver in round one. He's not new to risks, however, and Smith is exactly that. Huge talent with huge question marks. | B-Jeff Otah
W- Leonard Davis |
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| 8 | ![]() |
Vontae Davis, Illinois, CB | In a weak draft for DB's, Jacksonville takes arguably the best one on the board. Could possibly be Malcolm Jenkins here. | B-Nnamdi Asomugha
W- Will Allen
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| 9 | ![]() |
BJ Raji, Boston College, DT | With the hiring of Dom Capers as the new DC, Green Bay needs a monster nose tackle to anchor its new 3-4 scheme. Look no further at 330 plus pounds. | B- Kris Jenkins
W-Barry Cofield |
- |
| 10 | ![]() |
Mark Sanchez, USC, QB | The 49ers need a left tackle and a rush linebacker. None are available that pose the value Sanchez does. The Alex Smith era is officially over. Sanchez is perfect for this offense. | B- Carson Palmer
W-Trent Edwards |
- |
| 11 | ![]() |
Everett Brown, Florida State, DE | Buffalo desperately needs a pass rusher, as they finished near the bottom of the league in sacks. Brown is a gifted athlete with a huge upside. | B- Mario Williams
W-Jamaal Anderson |
- |
| 12 | ![]() |
Rey Maualuga, ILB, USC | The ideal 3-4 inside backer. Maualuga will play side by side with newly signed Andre Davis in the middle of Denver's new 3-4. | B- Junior Seau
W- Antonio Pierce |
- |
| 13 | ![]() |
Michael Oher, Ole Miss, OT | A need pick here. The Skins badly need a right tackle and Oher is the best one on the board. | B-Orlanndo Pace
W- Joe Staley |
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| 14 | ![]() |
Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State, CB | In a weak draft for DB's, New Orleans takes arguably the best one in the draft. To quote Charles Davis, of the NFL Network, "Corner? Safety? Player!" | B- Champ Baily
W- Antoine Winfield
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| 15 | ![]() |
Sean Smith, Utah, S | Texans fill a huge need here, and upgrade the strong safety spot with the 6'4" Smith. Could be considered a slight reach. With no value corner on the board, Houston will look to trade down. | B- Roy Williams
W- Atari Bigby |
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| 16 | ![]() |
Tyson Jackson, LSU, DE | Igor Olshansky is gone. Jackson should be able to step in right away and produce. | B- Justin Tuck
W- Philip Merling |
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| 17 | ![]() |
Josh Freeman, Kansas State, QB | Huge arm and huge upside. The Jets QB situation is sad, to say the least. With all the value corners off the board, Freeman is their guy. Maclin is another possibility here. | B- Ben Roethlisburger
W- Jim Druckenmiller |
- |
| 18 | ![]() |
Jeremy Maclin, Missouri, WR | Pure speed and agility! The Bears need a true number one receiver with speed. Maclin fits that description better than anyone on the board. DE Robert Ayers is another possibility. | B- Chad Johnson
W- Devin Hester |
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| 19 | ![]() |
Knowshon Moreno, Georgia, RB | The new regime in Tampa is committed to building an explosive offense. Moreno will be productive immediately in this new, more open, offense. Should go sooner, via trade. | B- LaDainian Tomlinson
W- Brian Westbrook |
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| 20 | ![]() |
Peria Jerry, Ole Miss, DT | Trade From Dallas: Jerry will replace and upgrade the hole created by the departed Cory Redding. | B- Kevin Williams
W- Broderick Bunkley |
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| 21 | ![]() |
Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State, TE | McNabb needs this for Philly to stay in the hunt. There are no wide outs available at 21 that pose good enough value to pass up the best TE in this draft. | B- Jason Witten
W- Algae Crumpler |
- |
| 22 | ![]() |
Alex Mack, California, C | With Matt Birk gone, the Vikings must replace him with an equal to keep that explosive running game intact. Tough to do, but Mack can do it. | B- Andre Gurode
W- Matt Birk |
- |
| 23 | ![]() |
Aaronn Maybin, Penn State, OLB | Slightly undersized backer who plays big with speed off the edge. The Pats OLB's aren't the youngest group in the league. Maybin will fit well in the New England 3-4, and produce some much needed sacks. | B- Shawn Merriman
W- Manny Lawson |
- |
| 24 | ![]() |
Brian Cushing, USC, OLB | Cushing is a complete linebacker and will eventually replace aging Keith Brooking. | B- Lance Briggs
W- Scott Fujita |
- |
| 25 | ![]() |
Larry English, Northern Illinois, OLB | This draft is not short on rush linebackers, and the Dolphins are thrilled. They have more pressing needs, but won't find better value. | B- Joey Porter
W- Karlos Dansby |
- |
| 26 | ![]() |
Derrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland, WR | Baltimore needs a speed receiver badly and are thrilled that DHB slides to 26. | B- Joey Galloway
W- Charles Rogers |
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| 27 | ![]() |
Hakeem Nicks, North Carolina, WR | With Marvin Harrison's release, the Colts must fill a huge hole. Nicks is perfect for Indy's system with great hands and runs precise routes. | B-Reggie Wayne
W- Muhsin Muhammad |
- |
| 28 | ![]() |
William Beatty, Connecticut, OT | Trade From Carolina: With Tra Thomas gone, and an aging incumbent right tackle, Beatty can play either side and will replace Tra Thomas eventually. | B- Matt Light
W- Levi Brown |
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| 29 | ![]() |
Kenny Britt, Rutgers, WR | Britt is 6'4" and highly athletic. Britt will begin filling the void left by Plaxico Burress, if Plex does not return, or will be a nice compliment to him. | B-Plaxico Burress
W- Reggie Williams |
- |
| 30 | ![]() |
Percy Harvin, Florida, WR | Finally a speed receiver! Too late for Vince Young to benefit perhaps, but much needed to keep defenses honest against that potent rushing attack. | B- Steve Smith
W- Sinorice Moss |
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| 31 | ![]() |
Chris Wells, Ohio State, RB | Filling a huge need, Arizona finally gets the power back with speed that should keep them in contention. | B- Larry Johnson
W- LenDale White |
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| 32 | ![]() |
Eben Britton, Arizona, OT | Pitt fills a huge need and should be able to upgrade the right tackle spot immediately. Britton could develop into a solid left tackle in the future. | B- Jordan Gross
W-Ryan Diem |
Round 2
Round 3
Check back often for frequent changes during the free agency period. Leave your questions or comments below. I will respond to as many as I can.




































Yes i agree that Matt Stafford shouldn’t be the 1st round pick for the Lions, but i don’t think the seahawks will need to pick him up, the have matt Hasselbeck, why would they waste their first round pick to make your pick a back up QB?
If anything i think Matt Stafford will go to the 49ers or the jaguars (i don’t see that happening too though) and Mark Sanchez in Tampa.
I’m not a big fan of mock drafts, because they typically never work out. So its a bunch of speculation on stuff thats never going to happen, but fun to imagine the possibilities.
Personally, I’m not paying much attention to the mock’s because I think the Jay Cutler situation is going to throw a big loop in the deal. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Lions trade the number one pick for Cutler leaving the Broncos to take Stafford/Sanchez or maybe Aaron Curry or trade Cutler could be traded to San Fran and Broncos pick up Sanchez.
I feel the Mock Draft is pretty accurate though and I think if Detroit ends up keeping the pick I think they are too cheap to take a QB; so its pretty much a toss up between Smith and Stafford.
Bad Bengals pick.
How many wide receivers do people think the Bengals need?
We have Chad Johnson, Laveraneus Coles, Chris Henry, and drafted WR’s in the second and third rounds of last years draft.
I think they should go with B.J. Raji or the best available offensive linemen.
it depends on a few things. 1 does cutler get traded. if he does to whom? detroit…maybe, san fran? the jets, bears, vikings. all of those teams have picks in the first part of the middle round. if detroit manages to get cutler and keep first overall pick then they will go ot.
Yay, the Lions draft is back where it ought to be! Heavy on the D, but one thing I might do is skip the TE and add an MLB in there, we signed a blocking TE yesterday and still have a hole in the middle of the defense. Other than that I couldn’t complain much about this.
Maybe they have their eye on some linebackers and corners in next years draft too, it does seem they are not trying to plug every hole permanently this year just stick a finger in some of them for the season.
Gina. You’ve made comments on this blog before and I understand your desire to address the Bengals more immediate needs. You could be right, and the Bengals may take a lineman (either offensive or defensive) but teams that contstantly run around putting out fires in round one find themselves drafting high every year– like the Bengals, for example.
Johnson and Coles are both in their 30’s and Chris Henry is, well…Chris Henry. Johnson’s cap number is not small. He will not be a Bengal in 2010 without a miracle. Crabtree is a rare talent. He is not someone the Bengals have the opportunity to draft very often. When guys like him come along, you take them. Save the fireman work for later rounds and free agency. Ask the Vikings how they feel about taking Adrian Peterson a couple years ago, even though they already had two good running backs on the roster.
Lance…Carson Palmer was drafted #1 overall several years back and didn’t take a single snap in his rookie season. Philip Rivers was the fourth pick and didn’t start for two years. The list goes on and on. Hasselbeck is old. Again, drafts don’t only address immediate needs, they also build teams for the future.
I hope we don’t trade for Cutler. I don’t see him doing any better here than Kitna only he’d do it with a bad attitude and lots of crybabying.
If Clay Matthews is there the Giants will Take Him
LB has been a problem for way to long
klungemonger…Good thought on the linebacker thing in round three. If one slides, I’m sure they’ll take him. The way my draft panned out, the last third round inside backer was picked out from under their noses at 80. Jordon Dizon is still developing. He is probably as good as anyone they’d have a shot at in round three.
Some things I disagree with.
1) Stafford going #4 to the Seahawks. Makes no sense. No one has been talking about them taking a QB at all, and there’s no reason to. They should still take Crabtree. I don’t care if they have TJ, 2 good WRs are better than 1.
2) Andre Smith at #7. I mean, Al Davis is senile, he’s stupid, he makes poor decisions. Even he isn’t that dumb to take Smith that high. You’re talking about a guy who has major character flaws and had a pro-day workout that was awful. He’s at least played himself out of the top of the first round, some scouts even think he’s played himself out of the first day. He might be worth taking a chance on with a later pick, but not that high.
3) Sanchez at #10. This guy sucks more than Stafford. I think even #17 to the Jets is a stretch. This guy started one year in college and thinks he’s ready for the NFL? Maybe its a good move by him, because given next years QB class he probably wouldn’t even be drafted on the first day. I can see maybe taking him late first round, though he’s really not even deserving of that.
4) Josh Freeman to the Jets at #17. He is worse than Stafford and Sanchez. With this weak QB class, there’s no way there are 3 first round QBs in this draft. If for some odd reason Stafford and Sanchez are off the board at #17, the Jets should just pass on a QB rather than waste a first round pick on Freeman. I’d rather have Kellen Clemens starting over any QB in this draft.
5) Percy Harvin at #30. I just see him going higher than that. Maybe mid 20s somewhere.
GO…I have the Giants taking a linebacker in round three. They also signed Boley during free agency. That offense has been neglected in the draft for years, in my opinion. They’ve asked Eli Manning to do too much with too little for too long. This is the year they make it right.
i think the charger will go for rey magulagua, and denver for BJ Raji
Jimmy…It would take up too much space to reply to your assessment properly. What I will say is this:
1. Stafford: Hasselbeck is old and injury prone. A replacement is needed long term. When will they be picking in the top five again?
2. Andre Smith: You’re WAY OFF on your assessment of his pro day and of him as a player. Character issues, yes. Out of the first day?..YOU’VE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME. I’ve read some of the same articles you’ve obviously read. Instead of taking that rhetoric seriously, though, I laughed. Watch the draft. He will not fall past 13 overall to the Redskins.
3. Sanchez: Again, I don’t know where you get your information and I don’t have the time to explain how talent is evaluated, but Sanchez is probably even better than Stafford. Had he waited to come out next year, he’d have been the consensus number one pick.
4. Freeman: 17 is probably a little high for him but the weak QB class will see him go in the first round. Last year, Joe Flacco was projected to be a second round pick. He went at 18, and the Ravens went to the AFC title game.
5. Harvin: The least polished of all the receivers projected to go in the late first/early second round. Throw in durability concerns and he might not go until round two. Great college players don’t always make great pros.
Amber…If Raji is available at 12, I agree with you. I seriously doubt he will be.
I agree that the Lions will take the OL from Baylor. I do not agree with Andre Smith staying that high or Mark Sanchez going anywhere close to the top 10. Also I noticed a silly comparison; comparing Knowshon Moreno to:
Best Case- LaDainian Tomlinson
Worst Case- Brian Westbrook
Please. He won’t be near either of them.
Rob K…On all counts, we will see.
Looking at the first round:
Seattle taking a 1st round QB just doesn’t feel right this year. I don’t think they’re ready to go younger yet (as evidenced by the TJ Houshmandzadeh signing), so I think they’ll try to get a player with more immediate impact.
It seems overly optimistic on the best/worse case for Orakpo. I think Cleveland’s coaching staff is more offense oriented, and I’d bet they try to get a weapon to replace Winslow.
I don’t think SF takes another young QB after the Alex Smith experience.
The Vikings took John Sullivan at C last year and are pretty happy with the way he’s developed. Their current RT is also a converted center. They won’t waste a high pick on another rookie C — which isn’t even a premier position in the NFL.
Nice zig on the Pat’s pick. Everyone else is saying Laurinitis.
I really like the Skins and Jets analysis.
Overall, this is a very nice analysis and guide to the draft.
Interesting. I don’t know about an OT being the first round pick for the Lions.
Jaydizza, who can accurately predict what the Lions will do? We are banking that this new management will break with the past tradition of making poor choices. A quality left tackle is a great choice…whether they make that choice is another matter for discussion altogether.
I like a lot of these picks since they challenge the norm, but having said that I think what teams should do will often sadly be detattached from what they end up doing.
I would flip the Malualuga and Tyson Jackson picks. The guy’s big enough to play 3-4 end and he’ll help run stop, solving two Denver problems with one stone, whilst Malualuga’s stock has slid. I also believe the Chargers trade down come draft day so it’s a little irrelevant.
Moreno with Ward is a really nice one-two combo, but sadly Tampa seem to be thinking Ward can carry the work load alone with Earnest Graham used sparingly. I think they get Cutler, and go Peria Jerry or whoever the top corner is come draft day.
Also, if the Eagles can’t rely on Westbrook to stay healthy and want a second guy then they go big. It’s Wells or Moreno or no-one. I doubt they ’settle’ for a McCoy, especially since he is that shifty sort of player who catches out of the backfield and there isn’t a world of difference between him and Westbrook. If they do pass on Wells then I find Shonn Greene is a nicer fit, but more than likely they would pass on a ‘lesser’ back (remember they traded for and like Lorenzo Booker) in favour of a big framed WR opposite Jackson like a Britt or Robiskie.
Why would the Bucs take a RB?? They have Ward, Graham,& maybe Wms.. They need a DT, OLB, CB, & WR.
I agree with Gina that there’s no way the Bengals tab Crabtree, for exactly the reasons she lays out. My other team is the Falcons, and while I like the idea of Brian Cushing, I have to question the credibility of anyone who says he ‘will eventually replace aging Keith Brooking’. Brooking is already long gone – get yourself up to speed TPS.
The only pick that makes sense for the Dolphins in your mock is Pat White.
1) You have Miami picking “rush linebacker” Larry English. Instead of a WR like DHB, Harvin, or Hicks. I know Bill doesn’t usually pick WR in the first round, but any of those three make more sense than Larry English. I would think that if Miami is going to draft a 3-4 OLB in the first it is going to be Clint Sintim, b/c he has played the position and excelled in it and he is not a project pick.
2a) You have the Dolphins selecting S Louis Delmas from Western Michigan, why? They have signed two S for mulitple years what would be the point? Why not a NT like Ron Brace?
2b) Why a G here, why not WR or CB?
JOEinPHX…As you can see, we’ve done five of these drafts and wrote many of these comments before Brooking moved on, but you’re absolutely right. The truth is that I noticed a couple others like that as well. The Brooking comment was written before he left ATL, as were others prior to free agency. I will go back over it and make an update to the comments. Addressing your comment further…I’m not sure how a simple oversight would relate to credibility, but you have the right to your opinion. I think most would agree that the pick makes sense. After all, isn’t that the whole purpose of a mock draft?
As far as Crabtree, you could be right. If you are, don’t be surprised if the Bengals are drafting a receiver in round one next year because Chad Johnson may not be there. Even if he is, he is not the same receiver he once was. Coles will not be effective without a legit number one target opposite him and EVEN HIS best days are behind him. I’d be surprised if the Arizona Cardinals had the sixth pick in the draft and passed on Crabtree, but who knows?
Mike J…Knowshon Moreno is a unique talent and yes, the Bucs did sign Ward, but he has never carried the load. Moreno and Ward would be a dynamic backfield, much like Dunn and Alstott were the last time the Bucs were a contender. Graham provides depth, but Moreno gives the Bucs a two headed monster such as the Giants, Titans, and Panthers all had last year. It’s no surprise to me why those teams posted some of the top winning percentages in the league. If the Bucs want a dominant offense, it has to start with a dominant running game. I’m sorry but Ward cannot do that on his own.
On a side note, I seriously doubt that Moreno will be there at 19 anyway. I strongly believe that he’ll go in the top ten, in a “surprise pick” scenario (say Cleveland or Cincinatti), or someone will trade up to take him between 11 and 15. The entire league are going to be kicking themselves next year for not recognizing how special this guy is.
Max Barry…I don’t disagree with most of what you said. All of the points you make are valid and plausible. The one scenario we’ll have to “agree to disagree” on is that I just can’t see the Eagles taking a big back like Wells or Greene. If Westbrook were completely done, I’d agree with you that they would probably consider Wells in round one, were he available at 28. Until Westbrook is gone, the production that can be expected from any back brought in to join him will be limited. Having two quality backs is a luxury, I think you’d agree. It isn’t one that the Eagles can afford in 2009, I don’t believe. They lost Tra Thomas (LT) to Jacksonville and Jon Runyan (RT) is 35 years old. Those facts force the Eagles to use one of their first round picks on a tackle. The other pick will go to help McNabb complete passes on third down. You could make a case for a power back in later rounds, like Liberty’s Rashad Jennings, if he’s there in the third. When the team desperately needs a big tight end or wideout, I don’t see them passing on one in favor of a short yardage back. It comes down to production with that pick. They could use a back to carry a hundred balls a year and convert some tough short yardage situations. That’s not enough production to spend a first round pick, in my opinion, as long as Westbrook is getting the Lion’s share of the touches. Additionally, I think the eventual replacement for Westbrook will be a guy like him–an “all pupose back”. Someone like McCoy fits that mold better than a bruiser like Greene or even a down hill runner like Wells, even though I agree that McCoy is not the ideal replacement–Moreno would be. Now, if HE’S there at 21, all bets are off. Hire two bus drivers to play tackle for all I care, just pick Moreno! That scenario is highly unlikely, in my opinion, despite what the rest of blogdom might think. He’s a top ten talent. Someone will trade up to take him in that area. Just my opinion. Thanks for posting!
Gary L…Delmas, “upon further review”, is probably not the way to go, now that the Fins have signed G. Wilson. I simply missed that one. You’ll see the change in the next mock. Thanks for pointing it out.
As far as the first round pick, I think Sintim is a slight reach in the first round, but Parcels might see it differently. English is more athletic and will easily learn the in’s and out’s of the 3-4 during his rookie season. I had him going before Sintim simply because he has a better upside and is worthy, from a scouting perspective, of that pick. Parcells has his standards, which I am not 100% privied to, so he’ll pick ‘em how he sees ‘em. I know that he loves picking defense in round one, and all of the receivers you mentioned are projects. They drafted a HIGH first round project a few years back in Ginn. He has yet to prove he deserved it. DHB and Harvin both have similar developmental issues. If they want a receiver, it will be someone fairly polished, like Robiskie, early in round two. In my mock, he was already gone by then. Considering value, I had them take Levitre with pick two of the second. They have basically made it public that they will be looking to upgrade the left guard position early in the draft–another Parcells type pick. They like LSU’s Herman Johnson a lot as well, a late 2nd to early third round guy. Thanks for your comments!
I like your draft, except for the fact that you have not solved one of there biggest problems the MLB position. Who is going to play the MLB? Lenon and thank god for that has been released, they have no one. The only change I would make to your draft is I would take a MLB with my first pick in the third round and a CB or Safety with my second pick in the third round. TE is a need, but they have three on the roster and they just signed Heller from the Seahawks. If they draft Smith first like you have it then Backus goes to the left guard and they resigned there other RG. Not that I am fan of either Backus or Peterman, but it is what it is.
Like Matt, I like your mock but the Lions biggest need is MLB. They should fill that place at #20. Andre Fluellen will be an upgrade at the DT position so Cory Redding won’t be missed.
For the 2nd round, NT is a bigger area of need than DE. Dewayne White is adequate and Cliff Avril was turning into a sack master at the end of the season. Drafting Ron Brace at #33 would be a need pick, but I don’t really like it.
Mayhew is making good on his word that he won’t tip his hand what they are planning to do. They are giving attention to the top candidates at EVERY need position by bringing them for private workouts, not saying much after they are gone, and the FA acquisitons are balanced and don’t reveal any draft strategy either. Honestly I think he’s waiting to see if another team tips it’s hand on wanting one of these guys then he’ll make like he wants them too & try to pounce on a trade-down. Smart, but frustrating for us with this waiting game!
Leaving the MLB spot open I still think Curry is a possibility, I’d definitely like to see that but Raji just had a workout and although everyone says he needs to go to a 3-4 I don’t see the difference, he needs a double team and will bust up a line in a 4-3 just the same. An acceptable compromise to me! He can stuff a run, that’s our #1 weakness so I’m all about him too.
To the Lions Faithful…I agree that Detroit needs to upgrade the Mike backer spot. The fact that they need so many holes filled at so many positions keeps me from giving them one in the first three rounds. Matt makes a good point about the tight end pick in round three. They could probably wait a year to pick a tight end. If they do, that might be the spot they take a Mike. The positional value of a middle linebacker just does not compare to their defensive linemen counterparts. With their first five picks (if you count the tight end pick), I have them taking five linemen. That will build the foundation needed to begin construction on a winning football team. Middle backers can be gotten in later rounds, in most drafts, and are largely ineffective anyway without protection from a solid front four. If they really want one, Laurinaitis would be a decent value at 33, though I see him with huge bust potential. I like Darry Beckwith. If he is there at the top of round three, they might take him there. I’d rather build the two lines with my first three rounds then go from there; but I’m not the one pulling the trigger. We’ll see if the new Detroit management team agrees with me or not. Thanks to all for your comments. 6.0 is coming soon!
Chad I agree with your thoughts, and if the Lions hadn’t traded there fifth round pick for Peterson, then I would think the Lions could take Brinkley the MLB from South Carolina, and if they could or could have done that and add the rest of your draft then I agree with your concept and they did build a foundation, except for Backus at left tackle, but it is what it is. I like the lay out of your entire draft, you have a much better concept then the so called experts and you should e-mail and give them a reality check, Kiper are you listening.
The only thing that could happen to throw this draft into a spin is if the Lions acquire Cutler and what would it take to do it. It would include a third team and draft picks switching that would make it interesting and guess what Kiper and the other so called experts will be moving to your draft prognosis.
I hope we don’t end up with Cutler…please no!
I can get with a full line rebuild on both sides, if we need it it’s all good.
klungemonger and Matt…I agree with you regarding Cutler. It’s not that I don’t think he could lead the team to a Super Bowl in four to five years, it’s just that they would have to give up more than they can afford to lose at this stage. Quarterback is an issue, but the Lions could do a lot of good by keeping the picks they have in the next two drafts. Loved the Peterson trade, but getting Cutler and giving up at least one first round pick is too much right now. Another team may have the luxury of making that move–not Detroit. I see him going to Chicago, Tampa Bay, or New York–Chicago is the favorite, I think.
On a side note, I always liked Culpepper, before he had his string of injuries. He was once a league MVP candidate and a Pro Bowler. His 39 TD pass season (2004) is still one of the best QB seasons of all time. I may be underestimating the impact those injuries have had, but I think he can approach that level of play once again. All he needs is a solid o-line, which we all hope is addressed in this draft. He’s already got a nice running back and a “Randy Moss” type receiver. This will be his second consecutive season with one team. I think that will do his confidence and development a lot of good. He should be ready to roll this year. Based on the contract he was awarded, I think Detroit might be inclined to agree. If they’re not sold, they are definately hoping. Thanks again.
I totally agree with your statement. The Lions would better served by using all of there picks to fix holes and I believe they need to find out if Stanton can play. If he can’t you have Caulpepper already under contract.
I believe they will take the best MLB available with there first pick in the third round. They could take Beckum, but if Sidbury is there you take him, because of his upside.
They should take Brandstater if he is available in the 6th round. He has the most upside of any QB and could be ready next year or the following year. From what I saw of him at the combine he impresses me the most of any of the QB’s.
But your right stick with the picks the next two years and build from the trenches out and then look for a QB, if you don’t already have one.
Being a ……gulp……Lion fan, this is the first mock that I agree with!!
I’ve always been taught that you start with the lines. If they don’t exist….your skill players are in for a rough go of it.
Good job!
Recent interviews with Lions coaching staff reveals they plan to incorporate a mixture of 4-3 and 3-4 defensive schemes, and they state that they basically want to “cross-train” the linebackers so they are functional as weakside or strongside, in whatever configuration. This could be a ploy to confuse all of us guessers even further, but if it’s true it leaves wide open the option to go with a defender at #1 like Raji or Curry. They also stated they like Curry’s versatility to play any LB spot so I wouldn’t rule anything out.
Correct me if I’m wrong but when you say “positional value”, are you talking about the money associated with a high pick position being out of sync with the salary associated with the players position, or are you referring to the impact the player’s position has on the game being relative to the pick number of the draft?
The Lions are negotiating with players right now to see who will give the best deal and sign in order to go #1, I think if they find a guy who realizes his position only nets a certain amount of money and will agree to play for that (rather than demand a J.Russell or M.Ryan contract just for going first) they will draft that guy regardless of position. So it seems to me that if you get the BPA at a salary commensurate with the other top guys playing his position, the value is there.
I read that Stafford’s agent is known for instigating hold-outs and stuff, let’s hope he botches up any chance for Matty Blue Skies to come here! Also they are now checking out Sanchez, have to wait and see what that’s all about…
klungemonger…Good question. I apologize for not clarifying earlier. Positional value relates to all of the variables that you brought up: dollars/impact/draft position/player’s position. Let’s take wide receivers, for example…Basically the reason why wide receivers rarely go number one is that they don’t make an impact on every play like a quarterback or a left tackle would make. In addition, the difference in terms of talent between a Michael Crabtree and a Hakeem Nicks isn’t glaring enough for most teams to spend a top five pick. Many feel that they could draft a guy in the second round who would produce numbers close to what that stud top five guy could produce at a fraction of the cost. Passing on the wideout in the first allows them to spend that top five pick on a position where the talent differences between the top five of the first and second rounds IS glaring–like left tackle, for example. Looking at quarterbacks, since so few can be had in free agency who play that position EXTREMELY well, it makes the value of a supremely gifted quarterback extremely high on draft day. Then there is the element of technical skill versus ability…Some positions require more technique, which can be taught, while others require more innate ability, which can’t be taught. Another word for something that isn’t or can’t be taught is TALENT. Some of those abilities in the NFL are: instincts, leaping ability, speed, size, quickness, armstrength, etc. Looking at that list, there are some positions which need those traits more so than others to be successful in the NFL. Long story short it takes more talent to play left tackle than it does to play center. It takes more talent to play rush linebacker than it does to play middle linebacker. Thus, those positions are typically in higher demand, obviously causing those players to be drafted higher.
In the case of Aaron Curry, depending on how he’s used, (should be a rush linebacker in my opinion, ala DeMarcus Ware) he has excellent value in this draft and is a lock top five pick. Having said that, his “positional value” is still not as great as Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe because the combination of skills it takes to be a top NFL left tackle is more difficult to find that the skills it takes to be a top rush linebacker. I have Clint Sintim, Larry English, Aaron Maybiin, and a few others rated as late first/early second round picks. While Curry is better than all of them, he is not three times better than any of them. That same statement CAN’T be made for the left tackles. Not only are Monroe and Smith much better than their second round counterparts, it is unlikely that any of those second round guys will even start at left tackle in the NFL, at least not as rookies, because they don’t have the skill set to match up against the Julius Peppers’ or Dwight Freeney’s of the world. After J. Smith and Monroe, there are no sure left tackles in this draft. Oher, A. Smith, Britton, Beatty, and the rest are all first year right tackles, in all likelihood, and many of them will NEVER develop into starting left tackles. Two players in an entire draft, at a given position, who can come in and start immediately–that is the definition of positional value.
Again I love your draft, but as much as I would love to see them replace Backus altogther, they can’t trade him because of his contract. So, although you and I both agree they need a really good OG, they can’t afford to pass on a MLB with the first pick in the Third round. Keep the TE, but lose Johnson, I like Johnson much better the Backus or Backup as we like to call him. I Iike either Blackwith or Brinkley or Ellerbe or McGrath in that order. Then the Lions would have pulled off a very good draft. Oh, almost forgot take Brandstater with there 6th round pick and then they have pulled off a very good draft. Caulpepper will work for a year or two while Brandstater gets ready.
Matt…Even with Backus moving inside to left guard, Stephen Peterman at right guard needs to be upgraded. If there were a good enough linebacker to take with the 65th pick, I’d have them take him. It’s a value thing for me. Herman Johnson is a second round prospect. If you have a chance to get him in the third, I think you do. There will be other Mike backers later in the draft. Signing a free agent or trading a late round pick for one is another option. Everyone keeps forgetting that they just drafted Dizon out of the second round last year. Teams rarely give up on a player after one season. We’ll see.
Yes I agree that they should not give up on Dizon, but Mayhew said in an interview about a month ago, “that they looking for a MLB, because there is no one on the roster who can handle it, and we don’t think Dizon is the answer. We believe he is a backup/ special teams player”, article Detroit Free Press. Look I have been a scout for two NFL pro teams, I have heard it all and yes that article could just be posturing, but I don’t think so. Dizon was a reach last year and I watched him, yes he can make tackles the problem is that he gets blocked and can’t get off of the block. He is not big enough or strong enough to shed his blocker. And yes I totally agree that Johnson is a much better prospect then Peterman, who I think is a journeyman at best, but they will start Peterman with his new contract. I agree that they could take a MLB later in the draft, Brinkley comes to mind, but they don’t have a fourth round or fifth round pick and we have to use what we have now to develop a mock. Johnson is a second round talent, but I like the TE idea better with the second pick and take the best MLB available with that pick. If Blackwith drops or McGrath is there you take them.
Now if you take Johnson and McGrath, I guess you can reach and take Brinkley that is also a very good move. We have to remember this is the Lions and yes we have to give a little credit that the new front office has done a decent job in the off season, but I still question there drafting until they can prove to me that they are capable of picking the right players, and there are no MLB’s left in FA worth anything.
So, what does it all mean. I agree with your draft if they can trade to pick up another pick that brings them Brinkley. Then I would go with your draft and say it was a great draft by Lions standards. They would have solved there LT needs for ten years, They would have added an impact DT and DE. They would have added a starting OG, well really two OG’s Backus and Johnson, and a starting TE. Most importantly Brinkley would give them a strong and fast MLB that hits like a freight train.
It not fair that we get to look at your draft and make comments without giving you the same opportunity. I have only completed my first round, and we are in synch with most of the picks take a look and let me know how you feel.
Thanks
Although everybody says Stafford is a franchise QB. Well the numbers don’t agree. Cutler who had less talent against the same competition was very successful then Stafford who had better talent surrounding him. He never won the big game and his stats, his footwork says that no team, especially a team that has taken flash over substance in past drafts, should invest $80 million in him. Instead, build the trenches, J. Smith, Peria, and maybe pick up Mack for a Riola trade and a late pick, is a good start. Then add Chung SS, followed by either McGrath or Blackwirth MLB then either Parson or Asher at the CB or Pegus at safety or the Beckum the TE from Wisconson. That’s a very good draft, they have filled some of there holes and they have built a foundation for a future. Take a QB next year or take Brandstater in the 6th round. He has better potential then a lot of the QB’s taken before him.
Updated 3/25/09
1 – DET: Smith, Jason – OL – Baylor
Swartz wants to build from the trenches, and Smith is the answer for the next ten years.
2 – STL: Monroe, Eugene – OL – Virginia
They need a replacement for Pace and he fits the bill.
3 – KC: Orakpo, Brian – DE – Texas
KC is making the transition to a 3-4 and Orakpo is a great fit.
4 – SEA: Stafford, Matthew – QB – Georgia
Hasselbecks days are numbered.
5 – CLE: Curry, Aaron – OLB – Wake Forest
Curry’s forty time will help a slow defense, put pressure on the QB, and give them an impact LB.
6 – CIN: Raji, B.J. – DT – Boston College
This will help the middle of a very week defense against the run.
7 – OAK: Harvin, Percy – WR – Florida
The Raiders could go Bey here, but the fact that Davis fell in love with Harvin at the combines makes this an easy decision.
8 – JAX: Crabtree, Michael – WR – Texas Tech
Jax has looked for a big time receiver that can get deep to stretch the defense. Bey fits the need here.
9 – GB: Brown, Everette – DE – Florida State
Its a toss up here Johnson or BRown. Alphabetical order reigns.
10 – SF: Smith, Andre – OL – Alabama
Singeltary takes risk here, but they need a OT and he fits the bill.
11 – BUF: Johnson, Michael – DE – Georgia Tech
The Bills need to pressure on the QB and Jackson is the best of what is left.
12 – DEN: Jackson, Tyson – DE – LSU
Denver needs to find a player to put pressure on the QB in there new 3-4 system.
13 – WAS: Ayers, Robert – DE – Tennessee
They need a pass rushing DE to replace Taylor.
14 – NO: Jenkins, Malcolm – CB – Ohio State
They need to find help for there weak secondary. Malcolm can play either the FS or the CB on the next level and that will help a very weak secondary.
15 – HOU: Cushing, Brian – OLB – USC
I think its to early for Cushing, but the Texans are in need of a big play OLB and Cushing fits there bill.
16 – SD: Maualuga, Rey – ILB – USC
They could take Oher, but the need to fill there MLB, out weighs there OL needs.
17 – NYJ: Freeman, Josh – QB – Kansas St.
Favre retires enough said. They like his potential and his big arm, Ryan has seen what a big armed QB can do in Baltimore with a great defense.
18 – CHI: Heyward-Bey, Darrius – WR – Maryland
They missed out on the top prospects, but the need for speed on the offense out weighs the need for a CB.
19 – TB: Sanchez, Mark – QB – USC
Unless they find away to trade for Cutler the Bucks need a QB very badly.
20 – DET: Jerry, Peria – DT – Mississippi
The Lions continue to build the trenches. Peria is a major upgrade over Cory Redding.
21 – PHI: Oher, Michael – OL – Mississippi
They take the best OL to fill there need at LT.
22 – MIN: Maclin, Jeremy – WR – Missouri
The only top receiver prospect left on the board.
23 – NE: Barwin, Connor – OLB – Cinncinnati
Barwin’s stock is rising after his pro day, when he ran a sub 4.50 forty.
24 – ATL: Hood, Evander – DT – Missouri
They lost Jackson and need to replace him. Hood is the best of the DT’s left.
25 – MIA: English, Larry – DE – Northern Illinois
He is a perfect fit for there 3-4 scheme.
26 – BAL: Laurinaitis, James – ILB – Ohio State
They need to find a replacement for Bart Scott.
27 – IND: Nicks, Hakeem – WR – North Carolina
The inside defense is a major concern, but with all of the first round DT’s off the board they take a young fast receiver to give Manning a new option to try and replace Harrison.
28 – PHI: Moreno, Knowshon – RB – Georgia
They need to fill there RB hole behind Westbroke who always in injured, and they do it with this pick.
29 – NYG: Britt, Kenny – WR – Rutgers
The only top receiver left to help a weak receiving core.
30 – TEN: Matthews, Clay – OLB – USC
The Titan LB’s are getting older. With all of the top receivers off the board they take a BPA.
31 – ARI: Wells, Chris – RB – Ohio State
He could fall into the second round, but with Moreno gone, they take the next best RB to compliment Hightower.
32 – PIT: Mack, Alex – OL – California
The Steelers are looking for a Center and would like to find a veteran. The Lions are tired of Raiola’s game and he comes cheap to the Steelers, cheaper then a first round selection. The Lions could make a deal with Pittsburgh, but either way the Mack goes here.
We have updated our mock draft take a look
http://www.totalprosports.com/blog/index.php/2009/03/2009-nfl-mock-draft-6/
Matt…I hadn’t heard that comment made about Dizon. While I believe it is authentic, I’m surprised that the Lions organization would call out one of their own players to that degree–wait, we are talking about the Lions–nevermind, I’m not surprised. At any rate, you and klungemonger have sold me on the their intentions at MLB. I’m sure you’ll be pleased with my latest mock. It is up now. Click on the link above this comment.
Impressive first round! I agree with your logic on most of the picks. It’s a hung jury right now on “Jay-Lau”. I think he’s a little soft to be a Mike backer in the NFL. His best fit, in my opinion, would be in a Tampa-Two scheme, or as a 4-3 Will. Since the Tampa-two teams won’t be going linebacker in the first, I think he drops to round two. Curry switching spots with Orakpo is an interesting idea. If that happens, its a case of Curry’s versatility hurting his draft stock, if that makes any sense (Jack of all trades, master or none, kind of thing). I think you’re probably right about Stafford going to Seattle. They will need some balls to make that pick and I’m not sure they’re ready to do it, though it will be strongly considered at the very least. Harvin going before Crabtree made me smile. I could see Al Davis doing something like that because of Harvin’s speed, though I think he’d still take Crabtree if he were available at seven. THAT is a pick that would take a HUGE pair. Davis has that, if nothing else. The way we see the receivers coming off the board differs a little, but again I can’t argue with your logic. Sanchez falling to 19 is probably the only thing that I completely disagree with. Based on film evaluation, I just think he is the best QB prospect in this draft and will go far ahead of Freeman–maybe even Stafford by the time all is said and done. That’s another case of the jury being out. If you asked ten people what they thought of the QB’s in this draft, the opinions would vary substantially. Nice job overall. You’ll have to send me the link to your website or get in touch with TPS. Maybe we can do a link swap. Don’t forget to check out 6.0!