After struggling through injuries and inconsistency throughout the first three seasons of his career, the Lions decided to let Smith walk during the offseason.  But with Best out and back-up running back Maurice Morris struggling to carry the load, they decided to give Smith another shot, and it paid off yesterday afternoon in a big way.  Smith carried the ball 16 times against the Carolina Panthers and recorded 140 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.  He also added four receptions for 61 yards and a touchdown through the air, as the Lions offense exploded during a 49-35 victory.

Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford also had himself quite the day, recording 335 yards and five touchdowns through the air, but it was Smith’s breakout performance that shocked everyone and earned him “The Stat Line of the Night” for Sunday, November 20, 2011.

Here is a look at some of last year’s rookies who performed well and whether you should worry about going after them in your draft as they enter their second seasons.

Quarterbacks:

Matt Ryan, ATL : Matt Ryan had an impressive debut season throwing for 3440 yards and 16 TDs.  We expect him to continue to improve as the go-to quarterback in Atlanta.  No sophomore jinx expected here.

Joe Flacco, BAL : If there is one QB we expect to get hit by the jinx, it would be Flacco.  His leash is shorter than Ryan’s with Troy Smith also waiting in the wings.  Remember, the starting job was Smith’s until he got hurt.  He never played himself out of it.

Running Backs:

Darren McFadden, OAK : Although Oakland still looks to be in quite a mess, I expect McFadden to have a breakout year this season, especially if Russell or Garcia can provide some help through the air.

Jonathan Stewart, CAR : Here is one back I expect to be hit by the jinx.  If he is healthy he should fair well behind the Panthers great offensive line, but already dealing with injury problems in preseason, this may be a setback season for Stewart.

Felix Jones, DAL :  He was playing great before going down with an injury, but if Jones stays healthy, he could be the Cowboys started sooner rather than later.  That, however, is a big “if”.

Chris Johnson, TEN : Johnson showed what he can do with the ball in his hands and only got stronger as the year progressed.  He should be even better this year and may receive more carries between the 20s.  Hopefully he will have Kevin Mawae back in time as well.

Matt Forte, CHI : It is hard to believe that Forte can improve on his great 2008 campaign, but with Cutler now the QB for the Bears, that is a very real possibility.  He will also be given some added rest with the addition of Kevin Jones to the backfield.

Ray Rice, BAL : He was not given as much responsibility as a rookie, but Rice should be set to start for the Ravens.  That is great news as he will likely receive the majority of the carries on a team that tends to rush the ball more than any other in the NFL.

Kevin Smith, DET : Detroit did not get the opportunity to rush the ball very often last year and this season may be somewhat similar, but when Kevin Jones is given the chance, he has proven he can produce.  Expect the Lions to improve this year and Smith’s numbers should do the same.

Steve Slaton, HOU : After impressing in his rookie year, Slaton has been given full control of the Texans backfield.  With strength at the receiver position and a quarterback who can spread the ball out, this may be the season that the Texans’ offense breaks out.  Slaton, of course, will benefit from this.

Wide Receivers:

Donnie Avery, STL : Avery is the starter which is good, but for the Rams, which is bad.  Because of the latter handicap, I would expect a quiet season for him, but a bright future is in sight.

DeSean Jackson, PHI : The Eagles offense is once again loaded.  With depth at all skill positions, the points should be coming in bunches in Philadelphia.  Expect Jackson to lead the charge as the number one receiver.

Eddie Royal, DEN : He was great last season but will no longer have Cutler throwing to him.  Now with Orton under center, Royal may be hard pressed to produce 91 catches and 980 yards, but he does give Orton a good check-down option and has the ability to break a short pass for a long gain.

Tight Ends :

Dustin Keller, NYJ : He was one of Favre’s favorite targets last season and it could be the same story with Mark Sanchez at QB.  You can bet the rookie QB will be looking for his TE more often than not.

John Carlson, SEA : He was Seattle’s leading receiver last year, but that was the result of injuries at WR.  With most of the wideouts back, expect Carlson to be used less, but things could change quickly when the injuries begin to come again.

The ultimate high profile team of this, and any draft, is the team which holds the top spot. In 2009, that team is the lowly Detroit Lions, who will have two selections in round one, and five of the first ninety picks overall. It is perfectly understandable then why so many feel that Detroit’s future depends, in large part, on the decisions that are made or not made this April. Speculation as to what the Lions will do has reached a fever pitch, as armchair GM’s from around the globe are deciding the fate of the 0-16 Lions on blogs everywhere. It’s time for Total Pro Sports to weigh in!

First, let’s begin by examining the obvious. They need everything! They need help at every position. Understanding that, what positions make the most impact on game day in deciding victories? Quarterback, right? In the case of the Detroit Lions—WRONG! I don’t dispute that having a great veteran quarterback in Detroit, such as a Peyton Manning, would instantly make that team respectable. That being said, taking one in the draft, even the best one available, would be a mistake for this team at this time in this draft. We’ll come back to that topic…

Second, let’s look at the current strengths of the team. Detroit has one of the best young play makers in football in Calvin Johnson, and a very talented young running back in Kevin Smith. Defensively there isn’t much, unless you count linebacker Ernie Sims, who has yet to live up to his first round draft selection (9^th overall) in April of 2006. Being that defense is the bigger weakness of the two units the Lions should focus on defense more so than offense, right? Again, WRONG, and again we’ll come back to that.

Finally, Detroit has to completely map out the upcoming draft and determine its strengths and weaknesses, assessing the talent at every position, as well as the needs of every other team in the league. This will help them to create a blueprint for draft success, which is used to closely estimate when and where certain players will go. This is a process that every team struggles with, but it allows them to gauge which players represent the greatest value to them, at certain spots on the board, and where they can obtain the best value for their own draft picks. Executing this task poorly has been the largest contributing factor to the Lions ineptitude. With Matt Millen gone, I can only speculate that the Lions’ war room will be much improved, and their draft soldiers better prepared to take the field.

As of today, Matt Stafford is the fan and media favorite to be drafted by Detroit with the number one overall selection. As we approach April 25^th, however, I believe that those perceptions will change. Take a look at the video we’ve provided below. This video is only one game, but it shows every pass he threw in that game—some good, and some not so good. Look at his eyes, his pocket presence, his accuracy, his feet, and his decisions. Most of his completions and yards were designed plays to a primary target (screens, quick throws, etc.). While he did find wide open receivers down field, as is typical at Georgia, even then his accuracy was a problem, preventing run after the catch opportunities.

There were few situations where he had to read the defense, process information, and make an independent decision. When he did that, he did not do it well consistently, often staring down receivers leading to incompletions, defended passes, and interceptions. He did make some major league throws in the game, threading the needle a few times, but it is obvious to me that he is a player that relies heavily on his arm strength to beat defenders rather than creating separation with his eyes and “throwing receivers open” with good anticipation. This is a formula for disaster in the NFL. The list is far too long to name every quarterback that contracted the Matt Stafford disease after making the quantum leap from college to pro football. The truth is that they all were carriers of the illness before. The college game just provided some temporary relief. He has unlimited physical ability, but quarterbacks are not judged on arm strength in the NFL. They are judged primarily on decision making and accuracy. These are Stafford’s biggest problems. Could he be a great quarterback with some hard work, and time to improve? He ABSOLUTELY could—but not in a situation like Detroit. He needs to be on a team that has a solid offensive line, and a decent defense, so his mistakes won’t be the reason the team loses early on in his development. In Detroit there will be too much pressure to play well immediately. He will be asked to do too much, and he is far from being ready to do that. I believe that type of situation could lead to his being benched, crushing his confidence, sending him spiraling into the Ryan Leaf/Vince Young, pit of despair.

No, taking Stafford is not a risk that Detroit can afford to take. They need to pave the road for their future quarterback by getting him an outstanding offensive line and developing a nice running game. With Kevin Smith, the usually trailing Lions have a back that somehow managed better than four yards per carry and nearly a thousand yards rushing, given a limited number of opportunities, behind a group of furniture movers. He will become a Pro Bowl caliber player behind a better line, and Calvin Johnson will only become more productive once the quarterback, whoever it is, has time to find him down the field.

I’m of the Bill Parcels philosophy, believing that you build the offensive and defensive fronts first—then take care of the rest. Why? With a great offensive line, average players can produce like elite players. They open more holes for backs, they allow quarterbacks and receivers more time to make big plays instead of constantly checking down, and they keep the chains moving by creating more push in short yardage. Additionally, by converting more third downs, the defense will be better rested, and will be more effective as a result. They make the whole team better! On the defensive line, linebackers and safeties make far more plays when they are not being blocked. Good defensive linemen protect those guys, allowing them to make more tackles and bigger hits, forcing turnovers and giving the ball back to the offense. If Detroit fixes the D-line first, however, what is the offense going to do with those extra possessions? Punt the ball and put a tired group of players back on the field, that’s what.

In this league, you have to score points to win. Without an excellent offensive line, that is extremely difficult, if not impossible. In this draft, Detroit holds three of the top 33 selections. If they can’t trade the number one pick, they must take Andre Smith, OT from Alabama, at that spot. If they do make the trade, there will still be an elite left tackle available later in the first round. There are four guys in this draft that should go in the top 15-20, three of which probably go in the top 10, and five or six that will go in the first round. They drafted their right tackle last year. They need to get the left tackle this year. With the 20^th pick, they should take the best guard in this draft, Duke Robinson from Oklahoma, or look at TE Brandon Pettigrew from Oklahoma State, if he’s available. Pettigrew is the most complete TE in the draft, and is an excellent blocker at that position. Robinson is a mauler who will bring toughness to that offensive front, and open holes for Kevin Smith in the running game. With the first pick in the second round, they should go with Max Unger or Alex Mack, depending upon how they would be used. Unger or Mack can both play guard, but Mack is a better pure center. One of those two might not be there, so the decision may be an easy one. Other players that could be considered at 20 and 33 are Andy Levitre (G), and Chase Coffman (TE). Obviously, their selections will depend upon what the other teams do first.

My “dream scenario” for Detroit would be to take Andre Smith number one, Brandon Pettigrew number twenty, and Duke Robinson number thirty-three. That is a very plausible scenario, as Robinson could slide some being that he is a guard, a notoriously undervalued position in past drafts. They can now use the remainder of their draft, which includes two 3^rd round picks, to start improving that defense. Free agency is another resource that they could use to add talent to the defensive unit.

As always, there are lots of possibilities for what those wacky Lions might do. I, for one, retain hope that they have seen the light, and will adopt a draft strategy which will improve their ability to win in the long term, not one that improves their ability to sell tickets in the short term. Sorry Stafford.

Teams are becoming ever more frugal with their draft choices, and major college programs are being coached now, more than ever, by men with NFL ties or experience. These and other factors have spawned the conditions which exist today: college football players are better prepared to enter the draft, and teams have the increased luxury of being very selective, due to the large number of high quality players available. It’s a buyer’s market without a doubt!

Of course, the very top end talent (top 5 picks) will always be heavily coveted and fought over, thus the obscene signing bonuses that they command. The rest of the “NFL ready” players inevitably make up the remainder of the first round, primarily drafted in round one because of their tremendous size, strength, speed, quickness, and potential. Obviously those standards vary, depending on positional requirements but, regardless of position, the history of the draft as well as the league itself has shown that “size matters” and “speed kills”. Players are also frequently drafted early when they are perceived to be polished, and ready to compete for a starting job immediately. Conversely, rounds two and three are typically high talent guys that have one or more holes in their game and need some polishing. In rounds four through seven you will likely find developmental projects, special teams, and backups. Those expectations are changing, and changing quickly!

The current draft climate has moistened the soil in the second and third rounds which has yielded, and will continue to yield, some of the sweetest fruit of the annual harvest. Last year, there were too many immediate impact players selected in the second round to mention even half of them in one article, but Bears RB Matt Forte and Eagles WR DeSean Jackson lead the pack. More of the same in round three, with Lions RB Kevin Smith, Falcons WR Harry Douglas, and Panthers FS Charles Godfrey leading an outstanding group. If you’re looking for maximum value in the draft these days, look no further than the second and third rounds.

This year’s draft promises more overall talent and depth than last year’s—and that’s saying something! Who will be the steal of the draft come April 25^th? I offer two possibilities. In the second round, there should be a running back available from the University of Iowa named Shonn Greene. All you have to do is look at the film, and you’ll see a player that has all the tools to be a FEATURED back in the NFL. At 235 lbs, he runs between the tackles better than most current pros, has excellent power, great vision, and AWESOME balance. Can you say YAC (yards after contact)? How about consistency? All he did was gain over 100 yards rushing in EVERY GAME this season (13 total), including a 121 yard, three TD, performance in the Outback Bowl vs. South Carolina, a top rated run defense.

Greene will likely not be drafted in the first round because of his perceived weakness as a receiver and lack of break-neck speed. For my money, I don’t care if he runs a 4.6 at the combine, which he might. He will be a more productive back right away than guys that, undoubtedly, will take home much larger game checks. Despite the wealth of information available to talent evaluators, straight line speed remains the most overrated attribute in a running back. Reggie Bush is extremely fast, and was taken with the second overall pick in 2006, but won’t be making a Pro Bowl roster as a running back any time soon. On the other hand, I seem to remember a 4.55-4.60 back taken late in round one nearly 20 years ago. What was his name? Oh yeah, Emmitt Smith ring any bells?

To make a comparison, there really isn’t a back in the league, currently, that reminds me of Greene. I’d best describe him as a hybrid between the Titans’ LenDale White and the Jaguars’ Maurice Jones-Drew, if you can imagine what that looks like—a bowling ball made of heavy rubber traveling down a rocky hill, or something like that. In the right system, Greene could put up Pro Bowl numbers as a rookie. The New Orleans Saints, who will probably say goodbye to Deuce McAllister before the draft, or the Denver Broncos, who run a zone-blocking system similar to the run scheme Iowa uses, both need a durable “power” back, and should take a hard look at Greene in the second round—IF he is still on the board.

Shifting the focus to receivers, yet another wide out will emerge as a future star from the second, or possibly, the third round this year. Juaquin Iglesias, Oklahoma’s 6’1”, 200lb senior, is clearly one of the most polished receivers in this draft. He is a disciplined route-runner with quickness in and out of his breaks, consistently displaying excellent body control in all situations. He is blessed with great hands and above average speed, and has shown outstanding RAC (run after the catch) ability. He has also returned punts and kicks for OU, so he comes with the added benefit of return experience. Iglesias is a smooth operator in zone coverage, and reminds me of the Cardinals’ Steve Breaston, and a little of the Colts’ Anthony Gonzales. He would make an immediate impact as a slot receiver for a pass-first team like Indy, Arizona, New England, New Orleans, or San Diego in round two. The knock on Iglesias is that he doesn’t make the tough catch in traffic consistently, and doesn’t have top end speed to stretch the field. I’ve seen much game film of Iglesias this year, and both knocks are warranted. He is not likely to become a primary target in the NFL. Having said that, neither is Reggie Wayne or Anquan Boldin. Boldin was also a second round pick, by the way. Iglesias will be an excellent slot receiver from jump, and will develop into a solid secondary receiver for a team such as Detroit. He will not slide past them with the first pick of the third round, but I seriously doubt he has to wait that long.

Without question, this draft, like those past, will have its surprises, head scratcher’s, and maybe even a “you gotta be kiddin’ me” or two. Even in an exact science, which the draft is clearly not, there are bad scientists that make it look tougher than it is. Now that Matt Millen has been forcibly removed from his dark, damp laboratory, at least there won’t be any mad scientists to ruin it for any team, or any fan. In fact, on this occasion, the 0-16 Detroit Lions are heavily favored to win! What an event! Oh yes, the draft will have its cheers, and lots of them, resonating from the anxious crowds of loyal fanatics as well as other finger-crossed onlookers. It is truly an event like no other in football—a day where all teams compete at once, and no one has to walk away defeated.