The skills of the player seem an obvious start point for evaluation, but if recent history tells us anything GMs don’t find this easy. Arm strength is atop of many personnel coordinators’ list of desired attributes, and it got JaMarcus Russell ahead of Brady Quinn in 2007 and Joe Flacco flying up draft boards last year. It’s a pretty contentious issue and I personally don’t find it the be all and end all, since modern football is putting a greater emphasis on a game of efficiency since 60+ yard aerial plays tend to land in the hands of Ed Reed; throwing a more accurate seam route that bends away from the safety is a far more realistic goal than a deeper vertical. The biggest arm in the draft has catapulted Matthew Stafford to the top, and if he is throwing to one of the best down field threats in the league Calvin Johnson he’s going to need it. You also have to consider that division rivals Green Bay, Chicago and Minnesota all struggle to defend the deep ball thanks to a combination of slow corners and poor safety play, but if Chad Pennington has shown us anything it’s that a big arm isn’t everything.

NFL teams love the intangibles, the skills you can’t put numbers to or glean from a combine. Matt Ryan earned the respect of the league and teammates with his high intelligence, character, leadership, clutch performances and game management skills, whilst JP Losman wound up offensive linemen with his erratic play and penchant for escaping the pocket without warning. Consequently, a lot of my skepticism about Mark Sanchez is because of his intangibles; a lack of game experience doesn’t help, and he has reportedly come across as borderline arrogant in interview. A USC quarterback who is a little too self confident and might be susceptible to off the field distractions. Where have I seen that before? Hmm.

As far as physical attributes go, I love Josh Freeman. 6’6″ and above average athleticism make this guy super impressive and I hope a team polishes his mechanics and turns him into a real force. You can’t talk physical freaks without mentioning Pat White. I understand his athleticism and NFL teams hate facing option plays that are pass or run, but at 6′ and under 200lbs he’ll be the shortest starter in the league by a long way, face practical problems of seeing over linemen and will have major durability concerns. He has his heart set on being a QB but suspect mechanics make that a struggle to believe – a slot receiver/returns man/backup within 3 years.

That’s the QB, but you also have to consider your own team. A bad line can kill a young QB – David Carr literally had the talent knocked out of him. Whether it’s through injury, demoralization or a total halt to development, careers can be put to rest if you don’t protect your signal caller. San Francisco and Detroit gave up more sacks than anyone else, and whilst I expect Detroit to add an offensive tackle at 20 giving Stafford the bare minimum protection, I really worry about Sanchez’s safety if he lands in San Fran. He isn’t mobile and may not have the game time experience to make veteran moves like spotting blitzes or quick reads; this may be enough to make offensive tackle the 49ers’ selection at 10. You also need to supply your QB with a strong running game to rely on – look what it did for Matt Ryan last year. If you can help reduce the number of third and 9 passing situations faced, you’ll keep a rookie QB’s turnovers to a minimum. Luckily for this year’s quarterbacks, most of the teams in the market for them have competent run games (Gore, Kevin Smith, Derrick Ward, Thomas Jones, AP), but what teams won’t do is sit on a QB and let him get used to the NFL’s speed under a veteran’s tutelage. Detroit, Tampa and San Francisco don’t have this luxury.

Finally you have to consider the pro style versus college system debate. Even if not all gimmick offenses produce busts it certainly helps, and that’s why professional sides value experience of 3, 5 and 7 step drops as well as depth to a QB’s route vocabulary – talk to Alex Smith if you need further clarification. Stafford and Sanchez ran pro-offenses, whilst Pat White and Texas Tech’s Graham Harrell suffered from the number inflating shotgun gimmickry that can ruin a prospective pro.

Any position can bust, but when a QB goes down he goes down in a big expensive fireball. You have to limit the scope for failure, and looking at the player’s skills, the protection you’ll offer him and whether he’s a system quarterback with no transferable skills to the pros are good starts to finding the solution to a pivotal position.

1. Kurt Warner: Kurt Warner had one of his best seasons since leaving the St. Louis Rams following the 2003 season. The former league MVP and Super Bowl Champion has lead the Cardinals on a magical run through the postseason and Arizona’s first Super Bowl berth in franchise history. He amassed over 4500 passing yards and finished with a .671 completion percentage. He also had 30 touchdown passes versus 14 interceptions. It is unlikely that the Cardinals will pass up the opportunity to sign Warner as Matt Leinhart has yet to prove to the team he is capable of taking over, they may just continue to go back to the well until it runs dry.

TPS Prediction: Injuries plague his ’09 season, opening the door for Leinart.  Warner retires.

2. Kerry Collins: Kerry Collins has been a winner on basically every stage he has been on, this year he led the Tennessee Titans to a 13-3 record, the best mark in the league. He is a safety valve as a No. 2 quarterback and is familiar with the system that Jeff Fisher runs down in Nashville, but the team may be ready to give the reigns back to Vince Young next season. His numbers were not flashy but his play is still solid, he does not make too many mistakes and gives the team a chance to win when he’s on the field.

TPS Prediction: Forced into a backup roll in 2010 by a younger QB, probably Vince Young.  Retires at the end of the year.

3. Matt Cassel: Proved he can play at the elite level was 1 game away from taking New England to the playoffs in the surprisingly competitive AFC East division. He had a great year with just under 3700 passing yards and 21 touchdowns. It is rumored that the Patriots are going to hit Cassel with the Franchise Tag.

TPS Prediction: He will be franchise tagged and traded before the trade deadline in ’09.  Starts elsewhere in 2010.  Possibilities include Jets, Bears, Lions, Chiefs, Vikings, and others.

4. Jeff Gracia: Another one of those under appreciated quarterbacks that is able to manage an offense and continues to produce as he approaches the ripe age of 40. The question mark on Jeff is that over the past 2 years he has been injury prone, that is not surprising considering his age. There may still be some value here however, a team may be willing to take a chance on a proven winner like Garcia. This years late season collapse was not his fault, but with the firing of Jon Gruden it is unlikely that Jeff will be in Tampa next season.

TPS Prediction: In ’09 or 2010, at the latest, Tampa will finally draft or trade for a younger QB.  Garcia will be a backup before 2010 is over.

5. Rex Grossman: Rex has been in and out of the lineup the past 2 seasons after leading the Bears to the Super Bowl in the 2006 season. It is difficult for a team to hand over the reigns of an offense to him as he is prone to making mistakes. In his 6 seasons, he has thrown more interceptions than touchdown in 4 of them and has a 33-35 ratio over his entire career. We are skeptical that Grossman can be a No. 1 quarterback in this league and even as a No. 2 it is difficult to trust he can make good decisions when throwing the ball down the field.

TPS Prediction: Grossman will be out of Chicago by 2010, but will sign as a #2 QB with another team.

6. Kyle Boller: So much hype over this guy when he entered the league but it just has not panned out. He may fit it nicely with a better offense but we are not so sure that will happen in the near future. Kyle Boller may have to find another line of work if no team is interested in giving him the opportunity to fill a backup role.

TPS Prediction: Boller will be a #3 quarterback at best in 2010, but will probably be out of football.

7. J.P. Losman: Has an NFL arm and decent mobility but cannot combine all the tools to make a set. Earlier this year he filled in for Trent Edwards and in a game versus the Jets told media that he would use the tape to show other NFL teams in the off season. With the game securely in hand J.P decided to take it upon himself to loose the game that day. He is not starter quality and personally I would not even want him running the scout team, his days in Buffalo are done.

TPS Prediction: Losman will be a #2 QB in 2010 with another team.

Other Notable Quarterbacks:

Charlie Batch, Patrik Ramsey