1 – Detroit Lions – Matthew Stafford – QB

Not much to say really. Right move.

2 – St. Lois Rams – Jason Smith – OT

The debate was Monroe vs. Smith and I think Smith won out because whilst he lacks in pass protection compared to Monroe, he has the athletic framework that can potentially be developed into a great pass blocker and already is a dominant lane opener in the running game. Eugene Monroe looks like he’s hit his ceiling, albeit a very talented ceiling.

3 – Kansas City Chiefs – Tyson Jackson – DE

Shocking! Aaron Curry at 3 was my lock of the draft and the Chiefs choose Tyson Jackson over the best player in the whole draft? I’m still trying to work this out; does Glenn Dorsey, a prototypical defensive tackle who will struggle at nose tackle, slide to DE with Jackson opposite and Tamba Hali at rush linebacker – meaning Hali and Dorsey are out of position. Or do you put Dorsey at nose tackle and Hali at 5 technique and watch them both struggle, now relying on Tyson Jackson to bail you out at left end? What stupidity will the Chiefs try next? Trading for a QB with one season under his belt since high school when they already have an adequate QB in place? Oh wait…

4 – Seattle Seahawks – Aaron Curry – OLB

Seattle isn’t a 4 win team and will likely return to the playoffs, meaning they won’t get a shot at number one overall talent like Curry for a long time to come. It’s no wonder they didn’t hesitate to pull the trigger on him.

5 – New York Jets (trade from Cleveland) – Mark Sanchez – QB

AWESOME DRAFT MOMENT! The Radio City Music Hall is absolutely rocking. 5 down to 17 is a long fall for Cleveland who probably should have secured more than backups and a second, but having said that I like Brett Ratliff and obviously Mangini is thinking the same way. Projecting what Sanchez does in New York is useless, since he’ll live or die by his numbers, but one thing is for sure; Sanchez’s reaction to the news he’s getting top 5 money from a playoff caliber team is almost as good as those three Jets’ fans who were disgusted by him. Who could of possibly made those three guys happy?

Mike Mayock seems to think New York jumped all that way because someone else was sniffing about and I tend to agree. None of the Browns, Bengals or Raiders would have taken him, so I’m thinking Denver or Washington were prowling.

6 – Cincinnati Bengals – Andre Smith – OT

Off field issues and Cincinnati go hand in hand. This guy was being mocked as high as two a few months so I guess the Bengals value talent over character. What a surprise.

7 – Oakland Raiders – Darrius Heyward-Bey – WR

Crabtree is on the board… but our worst nightmares are realised. Al Davis you moron. Reggie Bush had speed and production but neither translated to the NFL, enter Heyward-Bey who doesn’t have the production and you’re sitting on a bust Davis. Oakland will not make the playoffs until Al Davis is gone.

The Jags want out. They’re using all of their 15 minutes, but there seems to be no biters with Sanchez off the board. I think they’re trying to move back for Vontae Davis.

8 – Jacksonville Jaguars – Eugene Monroe – OT

With 20 seconds left, the Jags settle for Monroe. What a ringing endorsement when a team uses all of its 15 minutes trying to get out of drafting you. Khalif Barnes sucks and is gone, so without a top 10 worthy corner this makes sense.

9 – Green Bay Packers – BJ Raji – NT

Puuurfect. Green Bay couldn’t have planned this better; exactly who they want at the nose of their 3-4.

10 – San Francisco 49ers – Michael Crabtree – WR

No one thought he’d be here, so I’m not sure what to make of this. Mike Singletary will have found passing on Michael Oher very difficult, but Crabtree is too talented not to take when you haven’t had a franchise receiver since Jerry Rice.

11 – Buffalo Bills – Aaron Maybin – DE/OLB

You had to replace Jason Peters. You had to. I honestly don’t think they realised Michael Oher was on the board, and considering they picked Aaron Maybin over Brian Orakpo I think the Bills need to seriously look at drafting a new guy to maintain the board.

12 – Denver Broncos – Knowshon Moreno – RB

You just switched to the 3-4. You just brought in a whole bunch of running backs. What are you doing with your franchise Denver? Seriously. You were meant to be contending the AFC championship and now you’ve just condemned yourself to picking inside the top 10 next year. This is in no way anti-Moreno – I think he’s a phenomenal player – but this is the second stupidest pick behind Heyward-Bey so far.

13 – Washington Redskins – Brian Orakpo – DE/OLB

Orakpo escapes the top 10 and Maybin is taken over him; so despite whiffing on a Sanchez trade, this is mighty fine compensation.

14 – New Orleans Saints – Malcolm Jenkins – CB/FS

This has been a lock for a while.

NFL Network’s Pieces of the Puzzle graphic being used to compare the 2008 New Orleans secondary to the 2009 secondary with Jabari Greer and Jenkins inserted is pretty redundant, but slick nonetheless. The Saints are a REALLY dangerous team. Possible NFC Superbowl representatives?

15 – Houston Texans – Brian Cushing – OLB

I don’t think that Houston were thrilled with the talent available at this point and neither am I. I’ve always maintained that Houston would trade down, or reach at 15 and they decided to do the latter. Cushing is a meh for me; this guy looked so serious at the combine, and even his family can’t crack a smile in the green room. The whole Cushing family looks thoroughly miserable at the prospect of their son making tens of millions of dollars in a NFL uniform.

16 – San Diego Chargers – Larry English – DE/OLB

Larry English isn’t an Igor Olshansky replacement so this pick knocks me sideways a little. A right tackle made more sense, especially with Michael Oher still there.

The NFL Network crew are loving that last selection; Gruden is beside himself at the prospect of Shawne Merriman AND Larry English blitzing. I think you’re the only one Jon.

The most disgruntled part of this deal has to be the Denver Bronco fans. Yes you have two first round picks, but one of those has to be used on getting Mark Sanchez or Josh Freeman both serious downgrades (at least in 2009) from Cutler – even if you sat them a year, Kyle Orton won’t offer anything near the level Cutler would have. I liked Orton the first half of last year from a conservative run first game manager standpoint, but after rushing back too early from a mid season ankle injury his play fell away badly and he slipped into the coma of mediocrity that many Chicago QBs find themselves in. He lacks the arm of Cutler and is a statue in the pocket, but he fits the mold of what Josh McDaniels wants his offense to do; coordinating for Tom Brady and Matt Cassel has taught McDaniels that you don’t need a huge arm for success, instead basing your offense around slants and screens whilst keeping the defence honest with the persistent threat of the deep ball. I don’t really understand McDaniels’ unwavering attempts to force his strategy into Denver like a square peg in a round hole. I’ve heard Eddie Royal is his Wes Welker, but I still don’t see how this offense caters to a top 10 receiver in Brandon Marshall; Marshall lacks top end speed so you use his big frame to cause trouble in the middle of the field, but his routes aren’t sharp enough to play the slant routes McDaniels may ask of him. I’m not saying this kills Marshall but it certainly won’t be utilising him in his best role. You also fear for Orton due to the lack of a coherent run game to lean on; he’ll be blessed with a talented TE like he was in Chicago, but Denver lack an every down back that can catch ball and go between the tackles. Instead, Denver will employ 19 running backs at a time: Hillis and Buckhalter receiving, Lamont Jordan between the tackles, Selvin Young when Jordan inevitably gets injured. In other words: a mess.

As far as the Bears, I think they’ll be pleased and their fans ecstatic. There aren’t too many young franchise QBs out there (Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers and Cutler are about it), so Chicago will be delighted to have one. Cutler will plug in and be productive from 2009 onwards no problem at all, with his cannon arm suiting the vertical passing offense Chicago employs. The price they paid – Orton, a 2009 first round, a 2009 third round and a 2010 first round – was a steep one; I’m not saying they overpaid, but they certainly didn’t steal Cutler for nothing. And at the end of the day the money, interest and hype that Cutler brings far outweighs that of Eben Britton or Larry English.

As far as the draft, if Denver targets a QB, I think they’re actually worse off than before despite adding a first round pick. They have to trade up since they can’t guarantee Freeman getting past the Jets and falling to them at 18, and they can’t guarantee Sanchez getting past San Francisco to them at 12. McDaniels is going to fall in love with the pro-style offense Sanchez runs in USC and I think that’s who he targets, so he has to move ahead of San Francisco. If Green Bay wants Everette Brown or BJ Raji they can’t move from 9 and go behind San Francisco and the Bills, leaving Jacksonville to start a lucrative bidding war for their 8 pick; they can still get any corner they want between 10 and 15 and would secure at least an extra third from Denver, San Francisco or the Bucs. If Denver ship their 12 pick for a QB inferior to Cutler, and draft a 3-4 defensive player who is worse than who they would of drafted at 12 (Tyson Jackson and BJ Raji will both be gone), how has this trade helped them this year? Denver can still stick with Orton and go defence, defence with the 12 and 18 pick which of course upgrades them no end, but I just think the lure of Sanchez may be too much for Josh McDaniels to resist. It looks like Chicago were targeting Eben Britton so when they traded away their first they scrambled for an elite left tackle, with Orlando Pace installed they can move Chris Williams over to RT – a much better fit for him. My concern would be how they address both their meagre pass rush and their lack of possession receiver with just a second round pick. They can’t have Hakeem Nicks AND 3-4 defensive end Jarron Gilbert.

Bottom line the Broncos should never have got themselves in this position and Josh McDaniels is probably, and deservedly, getting absolutely blasted by owner Pat Bowlen for this whole fiasco.

Fundamentally, you’re substituting pressure from your lineman in a conventional 4-3 for a more versatile and fluid linebacker core in the 3-4. At the base of a 4-3 you are pressuring with 4 downed lineman and maybe one or two blitzing linebackers, but the offense has a good idea where the pressure is coming from, can match up accordingly and any QB worth his contract will pick apart the exposed holes that the blitzing linebackers leave. The 3-4 on the other hand doesn’t rely on pressure from the front 3. Instead, a combination of any of the 4 linebackers plus safety blitzing whilst the rest drop in coverage, offering innumerable options and permutations making pickups much harder for the opposition QB and his personal protector (a tail or fullback). Crucially, you are bringing at least one of the two outside linebackers in pressure each and every down to either stop the run inside, outside or rush the quarterback. Sounds perfect, but there are two provisos for this system to work. Your three defensive linemen must occupy all 5 offensive linemen, and your linebacking core has to be athletic enough to make plays in the open field or cover the zones left open by other blitzing linebackers.

As you can see, the 3-4 players require a specifically defined skillset to work. Your front 3 has to be more physically imposing than a regular 4 since their priorities shift from sacks and tackles to simply occupying offensive lineman; hopefully leaving your linebackers to outnumber the remaining blockers. The cornerstone of this system is the monstrous nose tackle that occupies the attention of the centre, guards and lead blocker, whom without you’ll concede the soft 5 yard run all game long. Shaun Rogers, Vince Wilfork and Casey Hampton all tip the scale upwards of 320lbs, the prototypical size for a dominant nose tackle, and at 337lbs Boston College’s BJ Raji would comfortably fit at the head of the newly converted Packers’ 3-4 at 9 overall. However, outside of Raji nose tackle pickings are slim but suitors are plenty; Ron Brace is a second round prospect, whilst the other tackles are more conventional in their size and play – you may see Hampton’s Chris Baker being reached for in the mid second. I also want to offer a moment of silence for Glenn Dorsey’s career; too lightweight for a 0 technique tackle, and too big to play end. Where does he fit in Pioli’s new 3-4 defence?

I talked about the versatility the 3-4 gives you and if you want evidence of that look at how highly regarded the ultra talented hybrid linebacker/defensive end class is; athletic enough to play linebacker and drop in coverage, but physical enough to put their hand in the ground and rush like a conventional end. Orakpo heads this class and fits perfectly with the Browns at 5, whilst Everette Brown and the much hyped Aaron Maybin hurt their stock by poor combine showings: instead of the physical freak we’re used to seeing Maybin looked heavy and slow, and at 6ft1 Brown might get bullied by a big left tackle. Clintin Smith, Larry English and man of the combine Connor Barwin could also fill this role. You have to expect the Packers, Chiefs and Patriots to look for these guys early, whilst the Browns may even select two and switch between a 3-4 and 5-2 formation on the fly.

It’s a risk reward system filled with risk reward players making the chance of all 6 prospects succeeding as a hybrid slim, but I guarantee it’ll make for some explosive plays and an intriguing draft day story.

Northern Illinois Huskies vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

Independence Bowl Game Preview

In a game that may get little audience viewing the Northern Illinois Huskies will be looking for a winning season while Louisiana Tech Bulldogs plays in its first bowl game since 2001. These teams match up pretty interestingly, the Huskies feature a solid pass defense but an average rush defense. This is just fine with the Bulldogs because they have shown no ability to pass the ball this year and will need to rely on the run to move the ball in this game. The Bulldogs may be hard pressed on offense if superstar DE Larry English has a good game, the MAC MVP and Defensive Player of Year, has had a great year and is likely a first round pick in the NFL draft.

The Huskies are fortunate to have received a bowl bid and you can bet that will give them an extra jump. The Bulldogs finished their season in a fury, winning 4 of its final 5 games, with the lone loss, a 4 point defeat to Nevada. Expect the Bulldogs to receive plenty of fan support due to the location of the bowl game and the fact that this team is playing its first bowl game in 8 years.

Independence Bowl Game Prediction

The team that comes into this match up with a little more confidence and swagger is the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs winners of 4 out of 5 and we look for them to have a little more enthusiasm. The line is set a pk and that’s what we will do.

Independence Bowl Game Pick – Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (+1)

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