In the end, Turner would rumble for a total of 61 yards, and he would teach Weems a valuable lesson in the process: If you aren’t going to block for Michael Turner, Michael Turner will make you block for him.

Check it out.

While the first was a no-brainer, it gets difficult after that.  The emergence of several new studs lining up in the backfield will undoubtedly make any fantasy league’s first couple rounds of the draft interesting.

Here is the way we rank the leagues top 50 backs:

1.  Adrian Peterson, MIN

2.  Matt Forte, CHI

3.  Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC

4.  Michael Turner, ATL

5.  DeAngelo Williams, CAR

6.  LaDanian Tomlinson, SD

7.  Steve Slaton, HOU

8,  Chris Johnson, TEN

9.  Brandon Jacobs, NYG

10.  Steven Jackson, STL

11.  Clinton Portis, WSH

12.  Brian Westbrook, PHI

13.  Frank Gore, SF

14.  Kevin Smith, DET

15.  Marion Barber, DAL

16.  Ryan Grant, GB

17.  Ronnie Brown, MIA

18.  Thomas Jones, NYJ

19.  Marshawn Lynch, BUF

20.  Felix Jones, DAL

21.  Joseph Addai, IND

22.  Pierre Thomas, NO

23.  Jamal Lewis, CLE

24.  Knowshon Moreno, DEN

25.  Derrick Ward, TB

26.  Ray Rice, BAL

27.  LenDale White, TEN

28.  Darren McFadden, OAK

29.  Jonathan Stewart, CAR

30.  Julius Jones, SEA

31.  Cedric Benson, CIN

32.  Willie Parker, PIT

33.  Larry Johnson, KC

34.  Reggie Bush, NO

35.  Chris Wells, ARI

36.  Leon Washington, NYJ

37.  Tim Hightower, ARI

38.  LeSean McCoy, PHI

39.  Donald Brown, IND

40.  Jamaal Charles, KC

41.  Willis McGahee, BAL

42.  Justin Fargas, OAK

43.  Fred Jackson, BUF

44.  Jerious Norwood, ATL

45.  Fred Taylor, NE

46.  Darren Sproles, SD

47.  Glen Coffee, SF

48.  Le’Ron McClain, BAL

49.  Ricky Williams, MIA

50.  Chester Taylor, MIN

Visit us tomorrow when we rank the top quarterbacks.

The argument for Maurice Jones-Drew is based around simple math: Fred Taylor carried the ball 143 times for 556 yards last year, and caught 100 more. MJD carried 197 times for 824 yards, and caught a monstrous 565. Fred Taylor is now gone. 197 + 143 = 340 carries (20 less that Peterson got in 2008 and the fourth most in the league last year). 824 + 556 + 565 + 100 = 2045 total yards. Now MJD isn’t going to get over 2000 yards, but even if he performs to 75% of those projections that’s still over 1500 yards and only a handful of backs have the potential to achieve such lofty figures. But here’s the problem; assuming his tiny frame can take that workload (a big assumption), do you really want to spend the second overall pick on a guy who has never carried the ball more than 200 times or even broken 1000 yards rushing? The only thing certain is that MJD has the highest potential reward of any running back this year, but it comes saddled with a biblical risk of failure.

So that leaves Turner. First the good: he’s 27 so well south of 30; he’s playing with a good passing game that opposition Ds must respect, limiting the number of 8 man boxes he’ll see; and he saw more red zone touches than any other running back last year. The cons include the fact 51% of his 2008 rushing production was against defenses that feature in the bottom 7 for rushing and 82% was against teams ranking in the bottom, but this year he faces 9 defenses in the top 16, 6 of whom were in the top 10 against the run last year. But what headlines the argument for the anti-Turner brigade is the ‘Curse of 370’, the idea that running backs, like Turner, never perform coming off 370 carry years. Superficially the facts are pretty undeniable. Since 2000, 7 running backs (excluding Turner) have exceeded 370 carries: Larry Johnson (06), Shaun Alexander (05), Curtis Martin (04), Jamaal Lewis (03), Ricky Williams (03), Ricky Williams (02), and LaDainian Tomlinson (02). In the following year, Lewis, Alexander and Martin’s production fell by 1000 yards with Martin getting a career altering knee injury to boot, LJ’s by more than 1000, in 04 Ricky Williams retired, but in 03 his production fell by 500 yards. Only LT managed to escape the curse, posting almost exactly the same rushing figures in 2003 following his 370 carry season in 02. Things don’t look good for Turner.

But… here’s what the curse believers don’t tell you. The curse dates back to the 80s but the physical support for players now compared to 1984 is day and night, and secondary backs – like Jerious Norwood – are much more prominent so they help ease the workload. Because of this I think it’s only fair to measure Turner’s chances of escaping the curse against running backs after 2000. Considering no running back reached 370 carries in 2007 or 2001, Curtis Martin was over 30 when he broke the mark and Ricky Williams retired, the statistical pool is limited to say the least. So how can we increase the test pool to really put the curse to the sword?

Take 10 carries and split them over 16 games, that’s less than a carry a game. What about 20 carries? 1.25 a game. With top running backs managing a 4.0 YPC, 4 extra yards a game is negligible. So let’s say 40 carries over 16 games would give your running back an extra 10 yards a game, 1 fantasy point a game, and a significantly increased chance of wear and tear. That means that over a year, it would seem to make little difference whether you carry for 330 or 370 carries. So what’s the fate of running backs that have carried over 330 times? Does the heavy workload curse prevail, or does it fall apart when you increase the pool of players? 33 running backs have carried 330 times or more post-2000. Of those, 14 saw a drastic fall in production of more than 400 yards, 6 did better, 2 saw a slight downgrade of between 200 and 400 yards and the remaining 10 saw relatively little change to their numbers.

14 running backs (6 of whom managed over 370 carries) seeing a fall of over 400 yards is a hefty number, but I think this goes a long way to debunking the ‘Curse of 370’. Heavy workloads hurt backs. Agreed. But don’t discard Turner on draft day simply because of him breaking an arbitrary number of carries (370) decided by what seems to be a statistical fluke. If over a course of a season 40 extra carries isn’t as significant as you would believe and the track record of those surpassing 330 isn’t terrible, why all of a sudden is it doom and gloom for The Burner? After all, if AP had just 7 more measly carries he would of broken 370, but no one is concerned about his output this year. It boils down to this: history isn’t stacked against Turner like many would have you believe, and in all actuality he only has a 42% chance of being affected by his 330+ carry heavy workload. If Turner hits then he’ll blow Forte out of the water, and until he’s done ‘it’ jumping on the MJD bandwagon is risky business. So don’t fear Turner come draft day if you find yourself burdened with the ‘2,3,4’ dilemma.

After witnessing his impressive 25-yard touchdown run against the Miami Dolphins on Friday night, what better time to evaluate the former Memphis back and his fantasy value.

It is no secret that Williams is a serious threat to score a touchdown anytime he touches the ball.  Last season he recorded an impressive 1515 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns , adding another 121 yards receiving and two more TDs.  While such numbers would often warrant early first-round consideration, that has not stopped some leagues from allowing him to slip into the second round.

Some have him ranked as high as a second overall pick on fantasy mock drafts but others have him falling out of round one.  What should we make of the fourth year man?  Where does Williams deserve to be drafted?  Should we be worried about the emergence of Jonathan Stewart in the Carolina backfield?

We are here to answer these questions.

Let’s begin with the Jonathan Stewart question.  Will DeAngelo be seeing a decreased workload because of Stewart’s presence?  Yes, he likely would.  Should this worry us?  No, it should not.

The Carolina Panthers have one of the best offensive lines in football, and as you may expect from any team with a good offensive line, they like to rush the ball.  Last season, they ran the ball an average of 31.5 times per game.  That means that even with an equal distribution of the carries in the Carolina backfield, Williams would still see the ball 15-16 times per game.  When you take into consideration his 5.5 yards per carry, Williams numbers would average out to approximately 88 rushing yards per game.  Over the course of a 16 game season, that would give him 1408 yards rushing, more than all but three other players in the league.

What must be kept in mind is that when you can break the big run like Williams can, a slight decrease in workload is not as devastating as one would originally believe, and breaking the big one is exactly what DeAngelo has done.  Last season he broke off 5 runs of 40+ yards and 15 of 20+ yards.  Only three teams were able to record runs of 40+ yards, and only five could surpass his 15 rushes of 20+yards.

The loss of touchdowns should not be much of a worry either for owners of DeAngelo Williams.  Last season he combined with Stewart to record 30 total TDs.  Even when split equally between the two of them, the number is still a total of 15, an average of almost one per game.

Williams is only 26 years old and is entering his 4th season in the league.  Age is not an issue for him and there should be no worries that the Panthers are preparing Stewart to be their back of the future.  Williams is as much a part of the Carolina backfield’s future as anyone, and with Stewart still being hampered by a nagging Achilles injury throughout preseason, Williams may even see an increased roll in the running game, rather than a decrease.

The fact of the matter is that Williams is undoubtedly worthy of an early first round pick.  Just how early is the next point of contention.  Adrian Peterson is a lock for top spot in my eyes, and I would likely go with Matt Forte, Michael Turner and Maurice Jones-Drew ahead of him because of the decreased threat of a running back by committee system in Chicago, Atlanta and Jacksonville, respectively.

Then comes the number five position.  That is where I would have him.  You can make the case for LaDanian Tomlinson, Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson, or Steven Jackson, but I do not believe any of them to have the potential stat line that Williams has proven he can produce.

Don’t agree with me?  Then check out this clip.  It just may help change your mind.

That is why we at TPS are here to give you some insight into what we (and many others) consider to be the studs of Fantasy Football.  While we don’t give recomendations on whether you should be taking or leaving such players and where in the draft they should go (we will be providing our rankings within the upcoming days and weeks), we do provide some information that may affect your perceptions going into the draft.  Just a little something to think about.

Here are eight guys that may end up leading your team to a fantasy football championship (5 RBs, 2 QBs, 1 WR).  We know that there are some notables missing from this list, but we can’t please everyone.

Adrian Peterson, RB, MIN : He was good without a threat at quarterback last season (1885 total yards, 2 TDs), and now with Brett Favre behind center, he should be even better.  Favre may not be the same guy we remember, but he can open the field and take advantage of teams who attempt to stack eight in the box.  Peterson should benefit from this and behind a solid offensive line will deliver the goods for fantasy owners once again.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI : Last year he put up incredible numbers for a rookie running back (1715 total yards, 12 TDs), and that was with Kyle Orton under center.  This year the Bears have Jay Cutler running the offense, but it will be Forte who leads the way.  Some expect the increased passing with Cutler and the addition of Kevin Jones as backup RB to affect Forte’s statline for the worse.  I will argue for the opposite and say it will help him greatly.  The extra bit of rest and threat of a passing game should open things up for this sophomore stud, not to mention he also plays behind one of the leagues strongest offensive lines (especially after the addition of former Ram, Orlando Pace).

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, JAC : In just three seasons Jones-Drew has averaged over 1300 total yards and over 12 TDs per season.  When you consider the fact that he did that playing backup to Fred Taylor, it becomes even that much more impressive.  Now Taylor has moved on and the Jaguars backfield belongs to MJD.  The Jags have also added offensive linemen with this year’s first two draft picks, looking to improve what was a weak spot for the team last year.  That is great news for Jones-Drew, and with his ability to break the big run as well as factor in the passing game, you can expect him to go off the board in the top four picks of every fantasy football draft.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL : Last season he was an absolute horse for the Falcons, running the ball an incredible 376 times for 1699 yards and 17 TDs.  Although coach Mike Smith has said he would like to lighten his workload, don’t expect that to hurt the value of the man they call “The Burner”.  He is a key component to the Atlanta offense and with Matt Ryan entering only his second year at quarterback, you can bet Smith will continue to rely heavily on Turner.

DeAngelo Williams, RB, CAR : He may play in what many will refer to as a committee backfield, but that should not scare you away from using a high pick on Williams.  Finally given the chance to start last season, Williams was fantasy’s best running back, carrying the ball 273 times for 1515 yards and 18 TDs (he also added 2 receiving TDs).  While backup RB Johnathan Stewart is expected to see an increased role, Williams will still be the go-to guy.  The Panthers will run the ball enough times behind their outstanding offensive line that both backs will see plenty of work, and with 5.1 yards per attempt average over his career, you can consider Williams to be a solid stud rather than a risky pick.

Drew Brees, QB, NO : Last year’s top fantasy producer, Brees should be at his best again this year with the return of RB Reggie Bush and WR Marques Colston.  His 5069 yards and 34 TDs are enough to put him on top of most quarterback rankings, and if there is any QB worth making a play on in the first or early second round, it is him.  The Saints have a last place schedule this year so Brees should have some favorable competition.  Expect the air show to continue in New Orleans.

Tom Brady, QB, NE : He’s Back!  After dominating the 2007 fantasy season, Brady was a number one overall pick on many draft boards but disappointed owners after going down with a season ending injury during the opening game.  Now he is back and looks to be rounding into form just in time for the regular season.  Should he have another record-breaking year, he will definitely prove his worth as a first or early second round pick.  Whether you take that chance on him really only depends on how whether you are willing to take the risk.  I have a feeling their will be a nice reward for those who do.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, ARI : Last year’s top wide receiver seemed to only get better as the regular season and playoffs progressed.  Now he is back at it and with Boldin still a Cardinal, opposing defensive backfields will once again be having nightmares of the Arizona passing game.  Fitzgerald is a dominating force on the field, whether he has single coverage or is being double teamed.  Playing with a group of talented receivers, he will get plenty of opportunities to repeat last year’s performance, which saw him record 1431 yards and 12 TDs.  After all, it isn’t everyday a wide receiver is slated to be a first round fantasy draft pick.  Larry is the exception.

To begin, we are going to talk a bit about draft strategies.  There are several mindsets to enter your fantasy football draft with.  Here are just a few you may want to consider (or avoid):

1.  Draft You Starting Lineup First – This strategy is a popular one as many people will tell you that it is you starters who get you your points, not you bench players.  With that being said, many individuals will draft each position for their starting lineup before grabbing a single bench player.  A smart strategy for reasons noted above, but it can be costly if your starters at key positions (QB, RB) do not perform or sustain injuries.  You will be left with little depth on the bench.

2.  QBs And RBs Top Priorities - This is also a popular strategy, one that is executed by using your first three picks on a quarterback and two running backs (assuming you play in a standard league with one starting QB and two starting RBs).  Then you may want to fill in some receiver slots, but at the same time continue to monitor the remaining RBs and QBs in order to provide yourself with depth at these key positions.  You may not get the stud wide receivers taking this route, but the wideout position is one with loads of options and depth.

3.  Stack The Backs - Many experts will tell you that the most important position in fantasy football is running back.  This year, with plenty of backs expected to go in the first two rounds, you may want to get your hands on two or three of them.  This is the strategy for you.  With your first three picks of the draft, take running backs.  In doing so, chances are you can solidify at least two players that will produce on a consistent basis for you.  Some may say that it is not smart to use a third round pick on a bench player.  I would say that sometimes there is a price to pay in order to get yourself a dominant backfield.

4.  It’s All About The Passing Game – Seems odd to say this right after preaching the importance of the running back position, but as we have seen in recent years, the passing game is becoming an even more important part of fantasy football.  Those who had Tom Brady and Randy Moss two years ago will tell you that when you can put together a top tier quarterback with two premiere wide receivers, it doesn’t matter what your running back does for you.  While I would not go that far, using your first three picks to go QB-WR-WR or WR-QB-WR does have potential for greatness if you get the right guys.  Just hope that you can get your hands on a good sleeper running back afterwards.

5.  Take The Best Guy On The Board - Here is another strategy that I am highly in favour of.  You may go into your draft with a certain perception on how things will turn out or what positions you are going to take in each round, but if there is a guy on the board who has slipped and it is your turn, don’t be afraid to take the best guy on the board.  You may want to go with running backs in the first two rounds, but if the likes of Tom Brady or Drew Brees are around for your second pick, how can you possibly pass them up?  Those are the types of moves that have owners kicking themselves in the ass at season’s end.

Here are a couple other things you may want to consider during your draft:

• Defense and kicking wont win your fantasy football league – They may get you points, but defense/special teams and kickers are not worthy of early or mid-round draft picks.  If you want my advice here, I say take them with your last picks.  There will still be some good ones around.

• Handcuff your studs – If you pick up Adrian Peterson, try to get your hand on Chester Taylor later.  Michael Turner…Jerious Norwood, and the list goes on.  Should your top gun go down, you have the right guy set to fill in for him.

• Look at the teams, not just the players – If you are taking a running back with an early pick, you may want to make sure he is playing for a good team.  Remember, bad teams are often forced to abandon the running game when trailing.  If you running back is on a bad team, he may not get the carries you are looking for.  Wide receivers and quarterbacks of course are a different story.

• Know who your opponents are drafting – This is an important thing to remember, but one that many do not pay attention to.  Know who the other owners of your league have taken.  If you are trying to decide who to take between two players and aren’t sure which is more likely to be there next round, knowing who others have already drafted is key.  But be careful.  In a recent draft, I had the second last pick of the third round and the second of the fourth.  I let Kurt Warner go and took Anquan Boldin because the guy with the next two picks already had Drew Brees, so I figured my quarterback would still be there.  Think again.  It’s a bad move on his behalf taking his backup QB in the third round, but you will encounter stupidity like that at any draft.

There you have it.  Use these strategies wisely, but remember.  When you step into your draft room and players begin to come off the board quickly, you may be forced to change your strategy on the fly.  Be prepared for anything.

Yesterday was the first day back on the field for Brady in his long road back to supremacy, and although he felt a little rusty, he was just happy to get back out there and do his thing.  He practiced with a knee brace on under his sweat pants, but felt he could have gone without it had the trainers not requested he wear it.  As for the beginning of the season, slated for Monday, September 14, at home against the Bills, he believes he will be ready to go baring any unforeseen circumstances.  Good news to fantasy owners and Pats fans alike, but bad new for Bills fans.

So now that he is back, it will be interesting to see where he goes on draft boards for the 2009 NFL Fantasy Football season.  Here is what my list of the top 10 in all offensive positions looks like.

(Using standard scoring of 1 point/10 yards rushing/receiving, 1pt/25 yards passing, and 6 pts/touchdown)

1.  Adrian Peterson, RB, Min – He remains one of the most explosive and physical players in the game and should continue to be a top fantasy point producer.  If only Brett Favre could come and help take off some of the load.

2.  Matt Forte, RB, Chi – The second year running back will hope that there is no sophomore jinx in the windy city.  And in case he needed it, he now has Cutler to take off some of the pressure.  He could be ahead of Peterson in some polls.

3.  Michael Turner, RB, Atl – The burner was definitely on last year and expect no different this year.  Turner has all the intangibles to be a great runner and as a young Falcon team continues to improve, so should he.

4.  Tom Brady, QB, NE - Here is where I may deviate from the norm just a bit.  Many have Drew Brees slated as the top quarterback after his performance last year, but I will go back with a fully recovered Tom Brady.  He should be fine once the season starts, he doesn’t get hit often, and after Matt Cassel’s showing last year, I think even a 90% Brady will be just fine with Bill Belichick looking after him.

5.  Drew Brees, QB, NO – After putting up big numbers last year, Drew Brees will look to do that same and avoid another off year, like his 2007 campaign.  With Reggie Bush and Marques Colston each gaining another valuable year of experience, expect him to remain a top flight fantasy producer.

6.  Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jac – Fred Taylor is gone and the Jags used their first two pic of the 2009 entry draft to beef up the offensive line.  That all comes as good news to MJD, and I expect this touchdown machine to respond with career high numbers.

7.  DeAngelo Williams, RB, Car – One of the most dominant players down the stretch last year, Williams looks to begin where he left off, and with one of the most effective offensive lines in football, that shouldn’t be a problem.

8.  Steven Jackson, RB, Stl – The acquisition of Jason Smith with the second overall pick should help create room for Jackson, and if Bulger can spread the ball through the air to take some attention away from him, he may once again find himself on top of the fantasy world.

9.  Steve Slaton, RB, Hou – He put up impressive numbers in his rookie season, and should be that much better in 2009.  With Matt Shaub and Andre Johnson patroling the other offensive “skilled” positions, Slaton should be able to put up consistent numbers to counter the Texans passing attack.

10.  Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Ari – I do not like taking wide receivers in the first round, and faced with the opportunity, would likely stick by that rule of thumb, but with Larry Fitzgerald on the board, it could be tough to resist.  His ability to make plays and score touchdowns allows him to produce like some RB’s.  Will he and his Cards be able to repeat the remarkable season they had on ’08?  If so, he’s a steal here.

The Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers will both be gunning for a victory on Sunday when they meet at Bank of America Stadium.

Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 7-point favorites versus the Falcons, while the game’s total is sitting at 39½.

The Falcons defeated 38-14 as a 6.5-point favorite in Week 3. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (37).

Michael Turner rushed for 104 yards and three touchdowns on 23 carries for Atlanta, while Matt Ryan threw for 192 yards with a touchdown in the win.

The Panthers lost to Minnesota 20-10 as a 3-point underdog in Week 3. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (37.5).

Jake Delhomme was sacked five time with passing for 191 yards for Carolina and Jonathan Stewart rushed for 15 yards in seven carries with a touchdown.

Team records:
Atlanta: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS
Carolina: 2-1 SU, 1-1-1 ATS

Atlanta most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 4-6
After outgaining opponent are 3-7
When playing within the division are 2-8

Carolina most recently:
When playing in September are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 7-3

A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta’s last 5 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Atlanta’s last 10 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Atlanta’s last 14 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina’s last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina’s last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina’s last 10 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Carolina’s last 16 games

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