TPS NFL Weekly Locks: Week 4

eli-manningTotal Pro Sports – Well we knew it had to come some time and although we would have rather saved our 1-3 week for sometime later in the season, week three turned out to be that type of week for us.  Thankfully, the Broncos saved us from a goose egg.  The Titans put up a strong effort but could not close out the game, or at least hang on to the cover.  The Panthers fell apart at the end of their contest with the Cowboys.  And the Saints and Bills had a tough time putting points on the board.  With that being said, we now stand at  5-7 on the year. Under the .500 mark is not a good place to be, but we are confident that this is the week we dig ourselves out of that hole.

Here is how we see things shaping up in four games for Week three of the NFL season.

Game: New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: New York Giants -8 1/2

Reason: The Giants hold a 3-0 record.  The Chiefs an 0-3 record.  Seems easy enough.  The Giants have looked strong thus far this season and although they will be on the road to take on Kansas City, that shouldn’t stop Eli Manning and company from putting up big numbers.  The Chiefs have allowed an average of 243 passing yards per game.  With Eli throwing for an average of 250 YPG, expect him to light up a weak Chiefs secondary and put enough points on the scoreboard in order to ensure the Giants a victory and the cover.

Game: San Diego Chargers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: San Diego Chargers +6

Reason: The Chargers have been weak against the run, but thankfully they will meet the Steelers in week 4, a team with virtually no running game.  That should bode well for the San Diego defense and they should be able to contain the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes.  Expect Pittsburgh to be able to put some points on the board, bt the Chargers should be able to match that with their air attack, which is currently averaging an impressive 315 YPG.  The Steelers have a knack for playing close games and while we wouldn’t be surprised if they got back to their winning ways at home this weekend, we expect them to keep it close as usual.  Look for this to be a field goal game and the Chargers to get the cover.

Game: New York Jets @ New Orleans Saints

Pick: New York Jets +7

Reason: Everyone knows that the Saints have the what may be the NFL’s most prolific offense, but as they tend to say, a good defense always beats a good offense.  In this case, we will assume that it is also the case with a great defense and a great offense.  The Jets defense has been relentless this season and has found a way to put pressure on the likes of Matt Schaub, Tom Brdy and Kerry Collins.  Expect Brees to be under heat all day and the Jets defense to keep them close.  Mark Sanchez and the New York rushing attack should be able to get on the board and the defense will do enough to keep the Jets within the spread.

Game: Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos

Pick: Denver Broncos +3

Reason: The Broncos are a surprising 3-0 and we will stick with them again this week.  As home underdogs this week against the Dallas Cowboys, it is hard not to find value in them.  While the Cowboys defense looks like it got bakc on track last week, don’t let an impressive performance against Jake Delhomme fool you.  There may still be some holes and the Broncos will expose them.  As for the Cowboys offense, injuries to Marion Barber and Felix Jones have left them thin at running back.  While Barber is expected to play, their rushing attack may take a hit this week, and with Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins patrolling the secondary of the Broncos, that could be trouble for Romo and the Cowboys.

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