TPS NFL Weekly Locks: Week 7

favre-vs-big-benTotal Pro Sports – Should we continue in this direction, we may have to change the name of this segment to “TPS NFL Picks: Use At Your Own Risk.”  It was a disappointing weekend as we went  1-3 dropping us further below the .500 mark.  The Ravens offense was unconscious in the fourth quarter, putting what had been a relatively low scoring game over the total, while the Eagles and Jets not only failed to cover the spread, but were also defeated in two of this season’s biggest upsets.  Thankfully we were able to hit the Monday night game as the Broncos have become a favorite underdog of ours lately.  That leaves us at 10-14 on the year as we continue to look for our breakout week.  Patients may be wearing thin, but I can just feel that 4-0 week coming.

Here is how we see things shaping up in four games for week seven of the NFL season.

Game: Minnesota Vikings @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Pick: Vikings +5 1/2

Reason: The Vikings come into this match up looking to stay undefeated but will have to face a tough Steelers defense that may have Troy Polamalu back in their line up.  While that may hurt their chances in this one, teams have had a tough time stopping Brett Favre, Adrian Peterson, and the rest of the Minnesota offense.  Through the first six games of the season, if there is one thing we have learned about the Vikings, it is that they will make just about any game close.  We expect the same here as this one should go down to the wire and may be won on a last second field goal.  With that being the case, we like the underdogs to cover in this one.

Game: Indianapolis Colts @ St. Louis Rams

Pick: Indianapolis Colts -13

Reason: Last week both of our heavy favorites buckled under the pressure.  We don’t feel that should much of a worry this week when the Colts travel to St. Louis to take on the Rams in the comfort of a dome.  Manning and company have been clicking on all cylinders and even the defense has been stellar for the most part, allowing only 14.2 points per game (2nd in the league).  When you consider the Colts also rank 3rd in points scored (27.4 PPG), while the Rams are a league worst 32nd (9 PPG)  and 30th in points against (28.2), that bodes well for the Colts and a rather large 13-point spread.

Game: New York Jets @ Oakland Raiders

Pick: Under 34 1/2

Reason: After getting off to a strong start, the New York Jets have begin to slide.  Much of that is due to the decline in Mark Sanchez’s play.  When you consider Jamarcus Russell will be under center for the opposing team, it shouldn’t be hard to expect each end zone to remain vacant throughout most of the afternoon.  The Raiders have scored an average of only 10.3 points per game and the Jets have not been all that impressive either, recording 19 PPG.  With both clubs also fielding strong defenses, it could be a rather low scoring affair in the Black Hole.

Game: Buffalo Bills @ Carolina Panthers

Pick: Under 37 1/2

Reason: Like our previous pick, we will once again go with the under in what should also be a quiet day for the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium.  The Bills have scored a disappointing 15.5 points per game while the Panthers have not been much better, averaging only 17 ppg.  With both teams weaknesses being their run defenses and their strengths being their ground attack, expect the clock to keep moving in a run heavy game with plenty of field goals.  A perfect recipe for the under.

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