2010 NCAA College Football Pick’em: Week 4

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After a rough week two, we bounced back with a strong showing in week three.  The Arizona Wildcats used their home-field advantage to secure an impressive 34-27 win over a strong Iowa Hawkeyes team, and even after giving up a 14-point fourth quarter lead to the Georgia Bulldogs, Arkansas quarterback Ryan Mallet was still able to lead his Razorbacks to a 31-24 victory thanks to a 40-yard touchdown pass to Greg Childs with only 19 seconds remaining in the game.  We would have gone a perfect 3-0 if Oklahoma had been able to hold onto their 27-10 fourth quarter lead, but two late Air Force touchdowns would spoil that party.  So we ended up settling for a 2-1 week three record, which brings us to 3-3 on the season.  Hopefully a solid week four can bring us above the .500 mark.  Only time will tell.

Here is a look at our predictions for week four.

Game: (24) Oregon State at (3) Boise State
Spread: Boise State -17.5
Pick: Boise State
Reason: For some, this may seem like a high spread for two ranked teams, but there are a few reasons why bookmakers believe 17.5 is a good number for this game.  First there is Boise State’s home winning-streak, which has seen them take the last 57 regular season games on their patented blue home turf.  Then there is their stellar offense, led by quarterback Kellen Moore, which should be able to drive the ball at will against an Oregon State team that allowed Louisville to rack up 453 total yards and 28 points.  And finally, there are the BSC standings.  Boise State does not get many opportunities to prove themselves against top-25 competition.  The last time they had this opportunity, they went into Virginia Tech and beat the Hookies by a score of 33-30.  However, the Hookies would go on to lose their next game to James Madison, putting a dent in Boise’s big win.  Look for the Broncos to come out hungry in yet another statement game, and make a statement is exactly what we expect them to do.  They not only need a win, but they will need a big one in order to improve their chances of getting into the BCS National Championship Game.  We expect them to get that big win, and cover the spread in the process.

Game: (5) Oregon at Arizona State
Spread: Oregon -11
Pick: Oregon
Reason: Arizona State may be proud of themselves after a hard fought 20-19 loss to #11 Wisconsin, but things will be a lot tougher this week when they take on the fifth-ranked Ducks.  The Oregon offense has been on a mission this year, averaging 63 points in their first three games.  They may not be able to put that kind of point total up against the Sun Devils defense, they should be able to easily outscore an Arizona State team that will have to deal with the Pac-10’s best secondary.  Looks for the Ducks to get off to a quick start cruise to an easy double-digit victory.

Game: (22) West Virginia at (15) LSU
Spread: LSU -10
Pick: West Virginia
Reason: It is tough to go against LSU at home in Baton Rouge, where they have not lost since 2000, but West Virginia does not need to win this game.  They only need to cover a 10-point spread, which may be a little too high for a team that is relying on a quarterback that has been rather shaky thus far this season.  Over the course of three games, LSU’s Jordon Jefferson has thrown for only two touchdowns and 344 yards.  He will be up against West Virginia’s Geno Smith, who in three games of his own has 800 yards and seven touchdowns.  That type of disparity should be enough to keep the Mountaineers close, and may even get them the straight-up victory.

Current Record: 3-3 (Last Week: 2-1)

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