2010 NFL Weekly Locks: Week 4

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There may be nothing more humbling than following up a 4-0 week two with an 0-4 week three.  That was our story last weekend.  The Steelers offense, led by Charlie Batch, suddenly woke up enough to put their game over the total.  The play of the Houston Texans’ defensive secondary turned out to be quite offensive (and we mean that in a bad way) as they were blown out by the Cowboys.  The Detroit Lions appeared to be on the verge of an upset, but that was before Adrian Peterson took over and put both the game, and the spread out of reach.  And then there was the Miami Dolphins, who appeared to be on the verge of tying their game with the Jets before their offense stalled on the Jets’ 5-yard line in they dying seconds.

And that is how things went down in week three.  Four games, four losses.  As a result, our season record is right back to an even-steven 6-6.  Sure, things could be worse, but we will be looking to make them much better with a bounce back effort in week four.  So without further ado, here are our TotalProSports.com 2010 NFL Weekly Locks for week four. Enjoy…at your own risk!

The Game: Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pick: Ravens +2.5
The Reason: When we all heard about Ben Roethlisberger’s four game suspension to begin the 2010 regular season, did anyone really think that the Steelers would be able to go 4-0 without him?  I didn’t, and I still don’t.  Sure, they may only be one game away from recording an unblemished record without Big Ben, but with the Ravens being the only team still standing in their way, the Steelers’ toughest test is yet to come.  These two teams split their season series last year, with a field goal being the difference in each game.  This game should be a defensive battle, with two of the top units in the NFL going head to head, so it may very well come down to which offense can produce the most.  We would give the edge to the Ravens, as we expect Joe Flacco, Anquan Boldin and Ray Rice to do just enough to not only cover the 2.5-point spread, but win the game outright.

The Game: Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
The Pick: Seahawks -1.5
The Reason: The Seahawks won only one game on the road last season, but it was against the Rams in St. Louis.  In fact, Seattle has won its last ten games over the Rams, and they will look to make it 11 this weekend when they visit the Edward Jones Dome this Sunday.  The Seahawks have been quite the pleasant surprise thus far this season under new head coach Pete Carroll, recording a 2-1 record after three weeks with big victories over the 49ers and the Chargers.  It is rarely a good idea to bet on the Seahawks on the road, but with Steven Jackson expected to miss this game due to injury, we see no reason why they can’t continue their dominance in this division rivalry.

The Game: Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans
The Pick: Titans -6.5
The Reason: The Denver Broncos will take their league’s number one passing game into Tennessee to take on a Titans secondary that has allowed only 178 yards per game through the air and one total touchdown through three games thus far this season.  Something has to give, and we expect it to be the Broncos passing game.  With little to fear about the Broncos’ rushing attack, Jeff Fisher will be looking to shut down Kyle Orton and company, and with Cortland Finnegan, Chris Hope and Michael Griffin patrolling his defensive secondary, he should be able to do just that.  That should give the Titans offense more opportunities with the ball, and that means Chris Johnson will have plenty of chances to wear down the Broncos defense, break a few big runs, and help his team cover the 6.5-point spread.

Game: Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Pick: Colts -7
Reason: Coming into this game, the biggest worry for the Colts should be stopping Jags’ running back Maurice Jones-Drew.  MJD has yet to have a breakout game and many think that this week is the perfect time to do just that as he will be facing a Colts defense that currently ranks 28th in the league against the run.  However, that number is somewhat deceiving when you consider that much of their 141 yards per game allowed on the ground came in week one when the Texans’ Arian Foster went off for 231 yards.  Since then they have allowed an average of 83 rushing yards against per game.  They may not completely silence Jones-Drew, but if they can at least keep him somewhat contained, and their passing offense, led by Peyton Manning, can take advantage of Jaguars secondary that has allowed 289 yards per game and seven total touchdowns through the air thus far, they shouldn’t have much of a problem covering the one touchdown spread in this game.

Overall Record: 6-6 (Last Week’s Record: 0-4)

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