2010 NFL Weekly Locks: Week 5

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When the Indianapolis Colts lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars after a last minute drive by David Garrard helps put Josh Scobee in position to kick a game-winning 59-yard field goal, which he nails, you just know that things are not going your way that week.

That was our case as we would lose that game, along with our two other favorites (Seattle and Tennessee), while getting our underdog pick (the Ravens) right for our only win in a 1-3 week.  With that effort, we now fall to 7-9 on the season, but with plenty of football to play, two games is definitely not a hole we can’t dig ourselves out of.

So with that we bring you our TotalProSports.com 2010 NFL Weekly Locks for week five.  Let the turnaround begin here!

The Game: San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders
The Pick: Chargers -6
The Reason: One of the lone bright spots for the Oakland Raiders thus far this season has been the play of running back Darren McFadden, but he is now expected to be out for Sunday’s game against the San Diego Chargers.  That doesn’t bode well for a Raiders team that has struggled in recent years against the Chargers.  San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers has yet to lose a game to Oakland in his career, posting an 8-0 record against the silver and black.  San Diego has not fared well on the road thus far this season, losing to Seattle and Kansas City away from home, but they should be more comfortable playing in nearby Oakland, a place they have had to travel to each season.  And remember, Seattle and Kansas City may be the two toughest places for road teams to play.

The Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals
The Pick: Under 38
The Reason: The numbers make it seem as though this game will land right around the 38-point total and both teams are averaging just under 20 points against per game while Cincinnati and Tampa Bay have each averaged 19.8 and 16.7 points scored per game, respectively, thus far this season.  But what makes me feel that this game should go under the total is the strength of both pass defenses.  Both teams are allowing and average of under 200 yards against per game through the air, and they both have allowed a total of 10 TDs through the air over seven combined games.  If both secondaries can slow down the passing attacks, this game should turn into a grind-it-out affair with a lot of rushing, field goals, and clock running, making a total of under 38 points very likely.

The Game: New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals
The Pick: Under 45.5
The Reason: Had this game taken place last year, the over/under likely would have easily been set at a number above 50, but this season both offense have struggled to produce, leaving the total at 45.5.  And we still think it will go under.  The New Orleans Saints have struggled on offense in 2010, and injuries have only made things tougher on Drew Brees and company.  Running back Pierre Thomas will likely miss another week with an ankle ailment, while Reggie Bush continues to sit out with a broken fibula.  That means the Cards should be able to focus on Bress and the Saints dangerous passing attack, which has not been so dangerous this season as the team has averaged only 19.8 points per game.  As for the Cards, they have felt the repercussions of losing Kurt Warner, as Derek Anderson has failed to produce and now undrafted rookie Max Hall has been brought in to try and help increase his team’s 14.5 points per game average.  We don’t like his (or the over’s) chances in this one.

Game: Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys
Pick: Titans +7
Reason: The Dallas Cowboys come off their bye week having to face the challenge of stopping the most dynamic running back in the NFL in Chris Johnson.  The Cowboys defense has been up to the task thus far this season, having yet to allow a rushing touchdown against, but Johnson is capable of breaking one from anywhere, and should be hungry to bounce back after a quiet effort last weekend.  As for the Cowboys running game, it has been non-existent thus far, as  they have rushed for only 80 yards per game and one total touchdown through three games.  That should allow the Titans defense to focus on Tony Romo and the Cowboys passing attack, and after allowing Kyle Orton to pile up the yards last weekend, they will be looking to avoid another embarrassing collapse.  That should provide Jeff Fisher’s team with enough motivation to slow down the Cowboys offense enough to make this game a close one.  Don’t be surprised to see it come down to a game-winning field goal for either team, and in the process, fall short of the 7-point spread favoring Dallas.

Overall Record: 7-9 (Last Week’s Record: 1-3)

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