2011 Weekly NFL Locks: Week 3

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Those who waited probably got the Bills at -4.  Luckily, we didn’t wait and were able to take advantage of the -3 line on Saturday.  That, along with wins by the Texans and Bucs, allowed us to go an impressive 2-0-1 last week.  This week’s slate of game offers eight divisional match-ups, and seven road favorites.  We tackle three of those division games, and we’re going with road favorites in two of them.  Risky?  I suppose.  But we are confident it will pay off in the end.

Here is a look at our picks for week three.

Game: New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
Pick: Patriots -7
Reason: I will be one of the first people to tell you that the Buffalo Bills are the real deal and they do have one of the better offenses in the NFL, but they will be up against a New England team that has the best offense in the NFL and are many people’s choice for best team in the league at this point.  The Patriots have won the last 15 meetings between these two teams.  They have won eight of their last nine against the Bills by at least a touchdown, including last year’s game, which saw the Pats defense force Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw three interceptions in a 34-3 victory at Ralph Wilson Stadium.  Fitzpatrick should be better this time around, but he simply won’t be able to keep up with Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense.  Look for New England to make it 16 in a row as they get the win, and the cover.

Game: Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Lions -3
Reason: The Vikings have dominated this match-up as of late, winning eight of the last ten against Detroit.  But if the first two games of the season are any indication, the Lions are clearly the better team heading into this game.  Detroit is coming off an impressive 48-3 home victory against the Chiefs, after winning in Tampa, 27-20.  As for Minnesota, they blew a 17-0 lead to those same Bucs at home last week, eventually losing 24-20 and dropping their record to 0-2.  The Lions have done a good job keeping Matthew Stafford upright, and if they can continue to do that, they should win by at least four points tomorrow.

Game: Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Pick: Over 46
Reason: The Falcons have gone over in five of their last six games on the road, while the Bucs have gone over in four of their last five at home.  Both meetings between these two teams last season went over 46 points.  The Falcons have given up an average of 30.5 points against per game and 412 yards to opposing offenses.  Tampa has given up an average of 23.5 points against per game this year and over 400 total yards to opposing offenses.  Both offenses should be able to take advantage,, especially the Falcons after playing their first two games against two of the league’s best defenses in Chicago and Philadelphia.  Look for plenty of points to be scored in this game as it goes over the 46-point total.

Last Week’s Record: (2-0-1), 2011 Record: (3-2-1)

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