2011 Weekly NFL Locks: Week 6

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The Patriots got their revenge on the New York Jets after being beaten by them in the playoffs last season, and a late goal line stand by the Oakland Raiders helped keep their game against the Houston Texans under the total.  That gave us wins in two of our three picks and bumped our record for the season above the .500 mark.  We will look to keep it that way with our week six picks, which feature three favorites.

Here they are.

Game: St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers
Pick: Packers -14
Reason: I usually stay away from large spreads like this one, but it is tough to do so in this case.  The Packers are 4-1 against the spread this season, while the Rams are 0-4 ATS.  Green Bay has one of the league’s most dynamic offenses to go along with a solid defensive unit, while the Rams have been terrible on both sides of the ball this season.  Three of the Rams’ four losses this season have been by more than 10 points, while each of the Packers’ last three victories have been by at least 10 points.  Look for Green Bay to win big and cover the spread in the process.

Game: Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots
Pick: Patriots -6
Reason: The Patriots are a tough team to beat at Gillette Stadium, as they have won their last 19 regular season home games.  They are 4-1 ATS this season, while the Cowboys are 1-2-1 ATS this season, and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven, dating back to last season.  Both teams have potent offenses and question marks on defense.  We expect a shootout to ensue, and that should favor the Pats, who have had plenty of success in those types of games over the past two seasons.

Game: Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Pick: Bears -2.5
Reason: The Bears are a disappointing 2-3 on the season, but all three of their losses have come against top teams in the NFC (Lions, Packers and Saints), while their two victories have been against good teams in the Panthers and the Falcons.  Both of the Bears’ wins have come at home, and they should earn another home victory when they take on a Vikings team that has won only one game thus far this season. The Bears have beaten the Bears and covered the spread in their last three meetings, and Chicago is also 9-1 in their last 10 at home against Minnesota.  Look for them to get the win on Sunday night and they shouldn’t have a problem covering the 2.5-point spread in the process.

Last Week’s Record: (2-1), 2011 Record: (7-6-2)

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