Patriots Win Probability Chart Perfectly Illustrates Wild Finish to SB XLIX
Super Bowl XLIX was a seesaw battle for the ages. If the reaction from fans following Malcolm Butler‘s interception to seal the Patriots’ victory wasn’t proof enough, just take one look at this Patriots Win Probability Chart from PredictionMachine.com (via Business Insider):
The first half is pretty self-explanatory, as the two teams exchanged touchdowns in the second quarter and went into halftime tied, 14-14. What’s really interesting is the second half of the game, and more specifically, the fourth quarter.
After the Seahawks scored 10 unanswered points in the third quarter, the Patriots entered the final quarter with about a 6% chance of winning the game. And with 10:57 remaining and the Pats facing a 3rd-and-14 from their own 28-yard-line, their chances of winning were 3.3%. Then they mounted their epic fourth quarter comeback, and after a Julian Edelman touchdown reception gave the Pats a 28-24 lead with 2:02 remaining, their win probability reached 90.2%. But a long Marshawn Lynch reception and a miracle catch by Jermaine Kearse at the Patriots’ 5-yard line with 1:06 remaining swung the probability back into the Seahawks’ favor (63.9%)…
And just 46 seconds later, Malcolm Butler sealed the deal and reminded us all that probability calculations mean nothing in the world of sports.