The NBA hasn’t had a back-to-back champion since 2018. Thanks to a much harsher repeater tax penalty, we can safely say that this might be the first era that any team from the league has a chance to win an NBA title, as long as they play their cards right.
No more superteams. No more dynasties. Finally, there’s parity and fairness to all. However, as with other sports, some NBA franchises, even if they are equipped with enough talent to make a deep postseason run, will still fail to win it all.
While five years might be far away, here are five NBA teams that will win a title in the next five years and five that will fail to do so. We’ll focus on 2026 and beyond with this one.
Which teams will win an NBA title and which ones will fall short in the next five years?
Will Win: Oklahoma City Thunder
You can bet all your money that OKC will win one sooner rather than later. This organization allowed Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to morph into an MVP while carefully selecting talented players in the draft in recent years, rather than immediately trading for top-tier talent to pair with him to hasten their ascension.
Sure, there will be a time in the very near future when they will have a hard time paying everybody top dollar on the roster, but as currently constructed, most of their bench guys are producing well while still on their rookie contracts.
This team is built to contend for an NBA title in the next five years and is positioned to win back-to-back, arguably the first team to do so in nearly a decade.
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Won’t Win: Cleveland Cavaliers
Is it time to discuss the fact that Donovan Mitchell isn’t capable of leading a team to a deep postseason run? While he’s a very good playoff riser, it seems like he lacks the ‘it’ factor to elevate his teammates’ performance in crucial moments of every series he has been a part of.
The Cavs went 64-18 and were first in the East in the 2024-2025 season, but they were inexplicably outplayed by a 50-32 Indiana Pacers team that was much hungrier and passionate on the court, resulting in a devastating 4-1 loss in the Eastern Conference Semifinals.
Let’s be honest here – opposing teams aren’t afraid of the Cavs. Unless something drastic happens within the next few years, this team might be in for more disappointments than accomplishments.
Will Win: Golden State Warriors
The Dubs, as currently constructed, have looked like they have one more run at an NBA title within the next couple of years. Even though Steph Curry, Draymond Green, and Jimmy Butler are all entering their twilight years, the trio is hungry to go out with a bang before their careers are over.
If the Warriors organization keeps Curry, Green, and Butler in pristine condition once the playoffs roll around, then other teams should be wary of them. Avoid major injuries, and they’ll be one of the favorites to win it as soon as 2026.
Realistically, they have a two-year window to get it done with their current roster.
Won’t Win: Boston Celtics
Cs fans haven’t realized it yet, but Jayson Tatum’s devastating Achilles injury, which ended his 2025 postseason run, has some unintended consequences not just now but also in the team’s future.
For starters, they have been luxury tax repeaters for three of the last four years. They are bound to shed some salary as soon as this summer, and they cannot keep their current core together – unless their new owner pays up. You can bet that they would want to get below the luxury tax as soon as next season because, truthfully, they aren’t competing for an NBA title with Jayson Tatum out.
Either Jrue Holiday, Al Horford, or Kristaps Porzingis will be dealt. Tatum might not be the same player when he comes back from injury. Is Jaylen Brown capable of being the go-to guy on a nightly basis? Probably not. Their future is extremely bleak right now.
Will Win: Denver Nuggets
It’s quite challenging to picture that Nikola Jokic will only win one ring when his career is said and done. Two might be in the cards, and three would be his best-case scenario. As proof that this team still has what it takes to win one in the next five years, they took OKC – the NBA’s best regular season team – to the limit in the Western Conference Finals this season.
They do need to make some trades for an NBA title to materialize, though. Despite their owner’s reported hesitance on trading away Michael Porter Jr., it might be best to scour the market this summer and see if there are any takers for the ever-inconsistent small forward.
Even though MPJ isn’t traded or they don’t get much value on the trade market for him, the Nuggets still have a path to compete for a championship. They do have some talented youngsters on the bench who can develop into valuable role players as soon as 2026.
Won’t Win: Houston Rockets
The Rockets have talent, but they lack a tier-one star to lead them to the promised land. While their current core is still young, it’s hard to imagine that either Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., or Alperen Sengun becomes an MVP candidate within the next five years.
As we all know by now, having an MVP-worthy player is a must for a team to compete for an NBA title. Sadly, Houston doesn’t have anybody on the team who is capable of being one.
Well…if somehow Kevin Durant asks for a trade out and the Rockets miraculously scoop him up, then they would be in title contention as soon as 2026. Until that happens, though, this team is going to look like would-be contenders only to fall short of their goals indefinitely.
Will Win: Indiana Pacers
The Pacers are on the rise, but coach Rick Carlisle doesn’t get enough credit for how he made this small-market team a contender. The well-regarded Carlisle made Tyrese Haliburton, voted as the NBA’s most overrated player in 2025 by his peers, a future MVP candidate under his guidance.
Indiana’s current roster includes some interesting pieces that are capable of winning an NBA title sooner rather than later. It is a well-balanced team without egos or overbearing characters.
While five years is still a ton of years away, it’s hard to imagine that the Pacers won’t be able to squeeze one, especially with Haliburton in his prime years by then.
Won’t Win: New York Knicks
Despite having one of the best starting lineups in the league today, the Knicks won’t win an NBA title within the next five years. As great as Tom Thibodeau is as a head coach, he hasn’t reached the NBA Finals throughout his coaching career.
Much of it is due to a shallow bench. Coach Thibs tends to play his starters heavy minutes nightly, and he doesn’t trust his bench guys to play significant stretches on the court. His coaching style hasn’t changed much since his days in Chicago, and that’s his greatest weakness.
As great as Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns are, they are in for a bevy of disappointments within the next half decade. If Derrick Rose failed to win the Bulls an NBA title while under Coach Thibs, what would make Brunson different in his time with the Knicks?
Will Win: Los Angeles Lakers
The Lakers’ chances of winning an NBA title in 2026 are slim, even with Luka Doncic and LeBron James on the team. However, we all know that we can’t truly count out the Lakers within the next half a decade because they will have Doncic playing for them in his prime years.
The Lakers are a global brand, and with it comes pride and prestige. Their front office will do everything in their power to keep Doncic in a purple and gold jersey while attracting other talents to join him. They might not want to pay Austin Reaves $30 million a year after his current contract is up, but they will find other avenues to replace him or get back some valuable assets in return.
The most significant selling point for them is that plenty of players are lining up to play in the NBA’s second biggest market. Los Angeles is the entertainment capital of the world, and players would jump at the opportunity to play in La La Land to gain more exposure.
Won’t Win: San Antonio Spurs
As much as we’d like the Spurs to become a dynasty again, there are legitimate concerns about Victor Wembanyama’s health status within the next five years. A right shoulder blood clot caused Wemby to miss the second half of the Spurs’ season in 2025. While recovering from that kind of injury isn’t impossible, there are some cases where blood clots have reoccurred in some players before, resulting in early retirement.
Chris Bosh is the prime example. Is Wembanyama on that trajectory? Maybe, or not. Earlier reports indicate that he’ll be available for training camp in September. The Spurs’ other concern is that they don’t currently have a legitimate second star to play alongside Wemby.
The Spurs do have talent, but the gap from Wembanyama to his second-closest star, De’Aaron Fox, is huge. Fox may not be the long-term solution here, considering how his former team, the Sacramento Kings, haven’t won much during his time there.
They will probably be within earshot of an NBA title once Wemby hits his prime years, and that’s more than five years from now.
