For every Ryan Leaf, JaMarcus Russell, and Johnny Manziel — AKA a draft bust — there’s a Tom Brady, Joe Montana, or Bart Starr. AKA… an NFL draft steal.
While several of the more highly-touted 2025 NFL Draft prospects carry massive “bust” potential, some of the most overlooked guys in this year’s class have a really good shot at outperforming their draft spot.
With that, let’s dive into the five most obvious potential draft busts of 2025 and the five biggest potential steals.
Which players in the 2025 NFL Draft are potential busts, and which ones are steals?
Potential Bust: Shedeur Sanders
Allow us to get the obvious out of the way early….
Does Shedeur Sanders have a high upside? Absolutely. Can he be a franchise quarterback if he lands in the right system? No doubt.
But ask yourself an honest question here. If Shedeur wasn’t the son of Deion Sanders, how many of you would be clamoring for your team to draft him? Half of the hype around Shedeur is the marketing and celebrity status he brings as the son of Prime Time.
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Sanders threw 64 total touchdowns over his two seasons at Colorado against only 13 interceptions. But this is a classic case of stats not telling the entire story.
In college, Shedeur was a renowned “check-down” and short-pass specialist. In 2023, he only averaged 7.5 yards per pass attempt. When you’re settling on small gains, your completion percentage will be high and the INT total low.
Sanders has several issues that other teams will have to work around. Deion liked to blame the o-line, but Sanders’ habit of holding onto the football too long caused him to take 92 sacks in his two seasons with the Buffaloes.
Compared to today’s top NFL quarterbacks. Sanders doesn’t have as much speed and athleticism to improvise and extend plays. His arm won’t “wow” anyone, either, especially when it comes to zipping it on deep passes.
Potential Steal: Jalen Milroe
Milroe’s passing numbers over his two seasons as Alabama’s starting quarterback don’t exactly jump off the charts: 39 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
And, of course, there’s always the case to be made that an Alabama QB — in this case, Milroe — benefited from an elite supporting cast.
It doesn’t help Milroe’s case that recent Alabama quarterbacks have failed to live up to the hype in the NFL. Namely Mac Jones and, so far, Bryce Young. Even Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t really played like a guy once labeled as a can’t-miss QB prospect.
But what really stands out about Milroe here is his dazzling dual-threat game and ability to extend plays. This guy had 726 rushing yards and 20 (!) rushing touchdowns in 2024. The year before, 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns.
Milroe reminds us a little bit here of former Alabama QB Jalen Hurts, who transferred to Oklahoma for his final season. Hurts didn’t light it up as a passer, but he made up for it with his legs.
Hurts needed the right scheme and supporting cast to maximize his potential. The Philadelphia Eagles did just that.
It’s the same deal here with Milroe. The athleticism and toughness are there. He just needs the right coach and set of playmakers to unlock his potential. If that happens, Milroe — likely a day-two pick in the NFL draft — can have the type of success that the other “Jalen” Alabama QB has enjoyed in Philly.
Milroe would be a compelling succession plan to Matthew Stafford for Sean McVay’s Los Angeles Rams. Or the Pittsburgh Steelers if they land Aaron Rodgers. Just saying!
Potential Bust: Abdul Carter
If the team that held the first-overall pick already had a quarterback in place, Carter would be the front-runner to be the top selection. Alas, the Tennessee Titans desperately need a QB and will presumably use it on Miami’s Cam Ward.
Regarding the Cleveland Browns and the No. 2 pick, it feels like a coin-flip between Carter and Colorado two-way star Travis Hunter. If it’s the latter, it’s hard to imagine the New York Giants passing on Carter at No. 3.
But allow us to put a “buyer beware” label on Carter here. By no means is he a lock to produce in the NFL.
For starters, Carter is considered “undersized” for an edge rusher at 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds. For comparison’s sake, Myles Garrett is 6-foot-4 and 272 pounds. Nick Bosa is 6-foot-4 and 266 pounds.
You might bring up fellow Penn State product Micah Parsons, but he makes up for his undersized frame with ridiculous speed and athleticism for a linebacker. Carter has to show he can do the same.
Not only is Carter undersized, but he already carries worrisome injury risks. He missed the scouting combine recovering from a shoulder injury, and later tests revealed he had a stress reaction in his right foot.
Undersized for an edge rusher with two notable injuries before playing an NFL snap? Buyer beware, indeed.
And one more thing: Don’t forget that 2020 second-overall pick Chase Young, now on his third team, was once considered a generational pass-rushing talent.
Potential Steal: Zah Frazier
There’s no shortage of NFL cornerbacks who exceeded expectations as day two or three draft picks, including Richard Sherman, Darius Slay, and, more recently, Riq Woolen.
Might UTSA’s Zah Frazier join that list? He’s certainly a prospect to get excited about if your team takes him in one of the later rounds.
Frazier started his college career at Southern Illinois in 2019 before transferring to Coffeyville, a community college in Kansas. Frazier starred there before moving to the UTSA Roadrunners program for his final college season.
Frazier finished the 2024 season with nine pass breakups and six interceptions, tied for second in the nation behind only California’s Nohl Williams. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds, he also has the ideal frame to match up with opposing big-bodied receivers.
As the Super Bowl 59-winning Eagles showed, you can’t have too many great corners in today’s NFL. Honestly, all 32 teams should seriously target Frazier if he’s available after the second round. No risk and a potentially very high reward!
Potential Bust: Jalon Walker
Look at expert rankings and mock NFL drafts around the web, and you’ll see many penciling in the Georgia linebacker as a top-10 pick.
At first, it’s hard not to get excited about the linebacker/edge rusher’s skill set. He’s listed at 6-foot-1 and 243 pounds but moves very well for a man of his size.
On a star-studded Georgia Bulldogs’ defense, Walker truly stood out with 6.5 sacks and two pass breakups. Since pass-rushers are more important than ever in today’s quarterback-dominated league, players like Walker are worth rolling the dice on—even if the bust potential is relatively high.
The issue with Walker is that he’s one-dimensional as a linebacker slash edge rusher. Per Pro Football Focus, he yielded a ridiculous 125.3 passer rating when targeted last season and had a lackluster 62.3 run defense grade.
If Walker can’t clean up his coverage and run D, he’ll have to land on a team with other defensive studs to make up for his issues. But if a team drafts Walker with the idea of making him their “alpha male” on defense, well, we wish ‘em luck.
They’re gonna need it!
Potential Steal: Raheim Sanders
The 2025 running back draft class is headlined by likely top-10 picks Ashton Jeanty and Omarion Hampton of Boise State and North Carolina, respectively. There’s a lot of buzz on Ohio State’s dynamic 2024 duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins, too.
However, South Carolina’s Raheim Sanders, who transferred after three years at Arkansas, is another enticing running back who deserves more attention heading into draft week. The dude earned 2022 First-Team All-SEC honors after racking up 1,443 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns.
Sanders was a second-team All-SEC selection in 2024 after rushing for 881 yards and 11 touchdowns to go along with 316 receiving yards. And with a 6-foot, 217-pound frame, Sanders can be a TD machine in goal-to-go situations — even if he starts out as an RB2.
If anything else, Sanders could be utilized as a complementary piece like AJ Dillon was with the Green Bay Packers from 2020 to 2023. But if given the opportunity to produce early and often on a team with a potent offense like the Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, or Dallas Cowboys, we could see him becoming an RB1 and 1,000-yard rusher right away.
Potential Bust: Shemar Stewart
A simple look at his imposing 6-foot-5 and 267-pound frame and Stewart immediately appears as a coach’s dream. It’s Stewart’s frame and traits that have him projected to be a top-20 pick, even though he only had 1.5 sacks in each of his three years at Texas A&M.
Think of 2022 NFL first-round draft pick Travon Walker. The Jacksonville Jaguars banked on his upside over his production, and it’s worked out. No guarantee it’s the same with Stewart, though.
Stewart’s run defense also helps his draft stock. But it’s always risky to bet on a player based on pure potential and NOT the production. According to PFF, Stewart had a woeful 11.8 pass-rush win rate in 2024.
It’s as simple as that. Stewart’s production is “meh.” But he’s built like a freak of nature. So, can the team that makes him a first-round pick unlock Stewart’s potential, or is he gonna be a big-time bust? He could be worth it all like Travon Walker or a flop like Brian Bosworth. Stay tuned…
Potential Steal: Jared Ivey
After two seasons at Georgia Tech, Ivey transferred to Ole Miss and emerged as one of the nation’s more underrated edge rushers. After breaking out with 5.5 sacks in 2023, he took it a step further by tallying seven sacks and two forced fumbles in 2024.
There’s a good chance that Ivey is on the board after round two. He won’t be a first-round pick, but he’s a must-have for teams lacking sufficient pass-rushing depth.
Ivey is a 6-foot-6, 274-pound giant who finished with an excellent 90.6 Pro Football Focus grade last year. He also boasts valuable versatility, as he is a guy who can play linebacker or line up on the edge or in the middle.
One reason Ivey is being overlooked? There are just so many big-time pass-rushing talents available in the class, and there is some concern about his leaky run defense. But that’s something that can be cleaned up by the right coaching staff.
Chris Jones, Trey Hendrickson, Danielle Hunter, Matt Judon, and Maxx Crosby headline the list of today’s top pass-rushers who were day two or three picks. We’re not saying Ivey will be as good as either of them, but don’t be surprised if he also outperforms his draft slot. The physical tools are there for him to be a shining star.
Potential Bust: Tetairoa McMillan
It’s easy to argue that McMillan is the best receiver in this class after the aforementioned Travis Hunter. And it certainly shouldn’t surprise anybody if the Arizona product ends up going inside the top 10.
But for a player of his size — 6-foot-4 and 219 pounds — McMillan isn’t as “tough” and physical as you’d like to see. This isn’t a Mike Evans or DK Metcalf-type guy who uses his frame to win those 50-50 balls.
McMillan doesn’t have the largest route-running tree, either. He’s not going to win all those 1-on-1 matchups over the middle and on the outsides. It’s all-or-nothing with McMillan, and it’s far from a lock that he’ll be a star in the NFL.
Potential Steal: Kyle Williams
Wide receiver might be the deepest position in this year’s NFL draft class. Travis Hunter obviously headlines that group, followed by Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka, Luther Burden III, and Jayden Higgins, among others.
But let’s not forget Washington State’s Kyle Williams, who showed off his game-breaking speed with a 40-yard dash time of 4.4 seconds and a 36.5 vertical jump.
Williams caught 70 passes for 1,198 yards and 14 touchdowns in his final collegiate season, averaging an insane 17.1 yards per carry. During his tenure at UNLV, Williams never averaged fewer than 12.2 yards per catch in a season.
Williams’s breakaway speed and burst off the line of scrimmage can make him a nightmare in one-on-one matchups. The skill set is there, but it’s again going to depend on where he lands.
If that’s on a team with an elite quarterback and a crafty play-calling head coach, Williams will be a superstar. Book it.
