There seems to be no end to the number of variables at play when it comes to having a successful run in the NFL. The coaches need to jive with the players, and the offense and defensive systems need to suit their respective personnel. But for all the X’s and O’s– and the preparation that goes into executing on an NFL field, there is still an intangible component—one that teams and players, no matter how talented, have no control over.
The luck.
And the fact of the matter is—some teams have it and others don’t. When something goes wrong, there is nothing anyone can do about it.
Let’s take a look around the league today and spot the six most and least lucky teams in the game.
Who are the luckiest and unluckiest teams in the NFL today?
Lucky: Washington Commanders
Let’s start with the obvious here: how about the fact that the Chicago Bears took Caleb Williams as number one overall—taking the decision of who to take out of Washington’s hands and putting rookie superstar Jayden Daniels right in their laps?
And what about the, erhm, shall we say, fortuitous schedule that they played? Or the ridiculous last-second wins that always seemed to have the ball bouncing their way in some inexplicable way… like the Hail Mary against the aforementioned Bears, for example.
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Not to mention the missed field goals that plagued New York back in September, getting the team their first win—or when the Saints swung and missed on the two-point conversion in Week 15.
Yes, this team was very talented and has an insanely high ceiling going forward with Jayden under center, but they were extremely fortunate to make the run to the NFC Championship game that they did!
Unluckiest: Miami Dolphins
It has been tough sledding for the Miami Dolphins over the past couple of seasons with the way that injuries have ravaged their team.
And this goes beyond the nightmare situation that has surrounded their oft-injured quarterback, Tua Tagovailoa, who could barely stay on the field—and his star receiver, Tyreek Hill, who wasn’t himself all season.
In fact, the defensive side of the ball was almost worse!
Granted, injuries are part of the game and every NFL team has to deal with them, but the magnitude and nature of Miami’s seemed to stand alone. There were just so many and they always seemed too happen at the worst possible time or in some freakish way.
Luckiest: Pittsburgh Steelers
When a team stumbles down the stretch of the season in the way that the Pittsburgh Steelers did in 2024—it is hard to categorically state that they are among the luckiest teams in the NFL, but Mike Tomlin’s gang managed to shoot the moon on this one.
This team, for all its strengths, really had no business ever even getting to an 8 and 2 record to begin with.
They were able to capitalize on a terrible start to the season from a couple of their division rivals—and got shockingly competent quarterbacking from both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson.
Of course, once the fall turned into winter, their luck did run out, Wilson faded and the team limped out of the postseason, but considering how fortunate they were to start the year, they deserve a nod on the list.
Unluckiest: New Orleans Saints
I don’t know if it was some New Orleans voodoo that went wrong or what, but the Saints were an enigma of misfortune in 2024.
The team came roaring out of the gates, blowing the doors off of the Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys in Weeks 1 and 2 with two 40+ point outbursts. Derek Carr looked sharp and the offense was humming in a way that has not been seen in NOLA since Drew Brees was under center.
Weeks 3 and 4, however, were a different story. New Orleans battled through two are hard fought games; losing by three to the Eagles after a stunning defensive lapse down the stretch of that game, then by two the following week to their bitter rivals, the Atlanta Falcons on a 58 yard game winning kick by YungHoe Koo with two seconds left.
The Eagles loss was tolerable all things considered, but there were a couple of bad breaks that sent New Orleans down a tough path…
But that Falcons loss, man, that was the beginning of the end—as they proceeded to lose their next five games, to fall to 2 and 7, at which point head coach Dennis Allen was relieved of his duties.
And to think—they just so happened to get one of Kirk Cousin’s only good games as a Falcon—and lose on a super long kick from Koo, who struggled all year in his own right… Tough break!
Lucky: Kansas City Chiefs
The phrase “better lucky than good” doesn’t always apply to the Kansas City Chiefs—because, well, they are good. But let’s not act like luck didn’t play a massive role in this team’s 2024 NFL season.
For starters, Patrick Mahomes had arguably his worst statistical year as a starter, and yet, the Chiefs still found themselves back in the Super Bowl.
Not only was the AFC West wide open for them to cruise to a postseason bid, they also got every break imaginable all season long.
It got so crazy that people started to hypothesize that the NFL was rigging games for Kansas City!
Add in the fact that they managed to avoid playing any truly dominant offenses in the playoffs, and it’s fair to say the football gods were smiling on Kansas City once again.
Unluckiest: Jacksonville Jaguars
Everything that could go wrong did go wrong.
Trevor Lawrence battled through injuries all year, and when he did play, his offensive line did him no favors—leading to constant pressure, rushed throws, and a noticeable dip in production.
Yet, the team still managed to remain competitive despite what their 4 and 13 record might suggest…
Because, man, there were A LOT of close losses—10 to be exact. A lot is underselling it—this was an NFL record!
Yes, Jags fans, you can at least take solace in the fact that your team was historically unlucky!
Luckiest: Minnesota Vikings
If you had told Vikings fans before the season that J.J. McCarthy would get hurt in training camp and Sam Darnold would be their quarterback for the entirety of 2024, they probably would have assumed the year was an absolute trainwreck.
But Darnold managed to have the season of his life, and somehow, someway, Minnesota found itself with a 14 and 3 record and in the thick of the NFC playoff race way longer than anyone expected.
The one caveat is that they were a little bit unlucky to be playing in the NFC North this past year, considering they had to settle for a wild card berth despite having a winning percentage over. 800, but still! A career year for Sam Darnold cannot be overlooked with this NFL team!
Unluckiest: New York Jets
I mean, at this point, the Jets might be the least lucky franchise in all of professional sports.
They went all in on Aaron Rodgers. The hype was through the roof. The Super Bowl dreams were real. And then—four snaps into the season—it was over.
And then, in 2024, it somehow got worse. It was one crazy loss followed by another, and it sent the team and its big personalities into a complete tailspin.
The Jets are proof that you can have talent, you can have a great defense, and you can have a Hall of Fame quarterback—but if luck isn’t on your side? None of it matters.
Luckiest: Los Angeles Rams
If you were to tell Rams fans a year ago that they’d land a game-changing pass rusher without having to move up in the draft, they probably would have called you crazy. And yet, that’s exactly what happened when Jared Verse fell into their laps, instantly transforming their defense and giving them the kind of dominant edge presence they haven’t had in years.
For whatever reason, teams in last year’s NFL draft just… decided they didn’t really care about drafting defensive stars. Maybe it was the insane hype around the quarterback class. Maybe it was teams loading up on offensive weapons to match the growing arms race in the AFC. Whatever the case, the Rams benefited—big time.
The Rams were also the beneficiaries of a down year in the NFC West, where the 49ers, the perennial leaders in the division, had a really rough go of it with injuries.
Sean McVay and company deserve credit for always keeping this team competitive, but let’s not kid ourselves—luck played a huge role in their success.
Unluckiest: San Francisco 49ers
Every year, the 49ers field one of the most talented rosters in the NFL. And every year, their season somehow becomes a battle against the injury gods.
But in 2024? It reached a whole new level.
The tone was set immediately when Brandon Aiyuk’s contract dispute blew up in their face.
The drama over his deal dragged into the season, and he got hurt almost immediately after he finally got on the field.
Then Christian McCaffrey went down early in the season, leaving the 49ers scrambling to piece together their run game. Without CMC, the offense lost a massive chunk of its identity, forcing Brock Purdy into far more difficult situations than he had been in the year prior.
And then, to add insult to injury—well, I guess this is really adding injury to injury—CMC’s backup, Jordan Mason, who was filling in admirably, also went down!
Defensively, things weren’t much better. Key injuries across their front seven and secondary left them constantly shuffling personnel, and as a result, this unit—one that had been elite for years—looked far more vulnerable than anyone expected.
Every contender has to battle adversity, but the 49ers? They got hit with all of it at once.
Luckiest: Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have had their fair share of heartbreak over the years, but in 2024, the football gods finally cut them a break.
For starters, the AFC East—a division that was supposed to be stacked—turned into an absolute mess.
The Jets’ season imploded once again, in a similar fashion to the way it did the year prior after Aaron Rodgers’ injury.
And while the Dolphins were expected to be explosive offense on offense, they couldn’t get anything going all season thanks to the injuries to Tua, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle at various parts of the years.
And the Patriots? Well, they were completely irrelevant from the jump.
Buffalo didn’t have to be perfect—they just had to be better than the disaster unfolding around them in the division, and that’s exactly what this NFL team did.
With no real competition, the Bills found themselves gifted a division title despite going through a year of transition themselves. Stefon Diggs was gone, and yet, somehow, they managed to find production from a handful of unheralded players who stepped up in a big way.
Unluckiest: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
It started with Mike Evans, their most reliable weapon, missing a stretch of games right when the offense needed him the most. And just when it seemed like Tampa might be able to weather the storm? Chris Godwin went down for the season, leaving Baker Mayfield with a depleted receiving corps and zero margin for error.
But it wasn’t just the injuries. It was the way they lost games. Every week, it felt like the Bucs found themselves in a crazy game—ones where their opponent played out of their minds, hit ridiculous game-winning kicks, or somehow managed to pull off a last-second miracle.
You have to give the Bucs credit because they did manage to find a way to overcome the adversity and ended up making a nice run to the playoffs, but it is hard not to wonder what could have been had a couple more bounces gone their way—I mean, just think about that shocking sequence at the end of the game when Baker fumbled a handoff on the exchange to Jalen McMillan.
Or if they had had Godwin active for their postseason game against Washington—who is to say that that playoff showdown doesn’t more closely resemble the Week 1 beatdown that Tampa delivered Washington?
Sorry Bucs fans… just a rough go of it, but there is always next year!
