Quarterback play can be the difference between an NFL playoff run and staring down a top-five draft pick to try and find a guy that actually can deliver that kind of season.
What’s most interesting though—is quarterbacks don’t stay the same forever… and better yet—their growth isn’t linear.
Meaning that from year to year, there is a significant variance in what level—even some of the most established names—are performing.
One year, a guy looks like the future of the league—the next, he’s struggling to keep his job. That’s just the reality of playing the most scrutinized position in professional sports.
Without further ado, let’s take a look at 6 NFL quarterbacks ready to take a step forward—and 6 that are about to take a step back.
Which NFL quarterbacks are making a leap, and who will regress next season?
Step Foward: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
There is an obvious reason for Birds fans to be excited about their signal caller coming off a Super Bowl win—especially considering how well he played.
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That said, the last time Jalen Hurts played in a Super Bowl, he left zero doubt about whether he could be that guy. Unfortunately, the Eagles’ roster took a hit after that magical 2022 run, and 2023? It was a mess—coaching drama, offensive struggles, and a late-season collapse that sent Philly packing early.
But heading into 2025 the offense still has all the right pieces around him returning, unlike the last time he played great in the big game, which, lest we forget—he actually won this go around!
All things considered, Hurts is a leader and the heartbeat of the offense, now he looks poised to elevate his game further and further dismiss the remaining doubters that haven’t crawled back under their rocks.
Step Back: Geno Smith, Las Vegas Raiders
Look for the Geno Smith and Raiders marriage to go the way of many Las Vegas nuptials…
I understand that Vegas was kind of forced into this after missing on last years quarterback draft class, and it is unlikely they can get a top passer at number six in the upcoming NFL draft, so why not roll the dice with Smith…
But I could see this looking like a slightly worse version of Derek Carr in Sin City… They added a veteran who can sling the ball and run the offense but is not ready to step forward and really elevate the team.
Plus, Geno is getting up there in age at this point, too… It is asking a lot for him to get comfortable in a new offense with Chip Kelly, who isn’t exactly known for catering to his players’ strengths in the NFL.
Step Foward: Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts
Shane Steichen’s RPO-heavy and dynamic offense is a perfect fit for Daniel Jones’s skill set. He can sprinkle in designed QB runs, work off play-action, and—if he’s actually healthy—give the Colts a legit dual-threat option behind center.
Obviously, they have another guy with that ability in Anthony Richardson, but it seems clear that the Colts brass is growing weary of his inconsistent play and immature behavior.
The smart money say that the Colts will play the best option at quarterback, meaning we could have a competition on our hands, one that Daniel Jones is very capable of winning.
Hopefully, his pitstop in Minnesota with Kevin O’Connell taught him a thing or two—and if not, it had to be a relief to at least get out of that toxic situation in New York.
A change of scenery could’ve been all this quarterback needed to start actually earning his stripes in the NFL again because, if nothing else, a fresh start was necessary. And if he gets the nod over Anthony Richardson? He’s got a chance to resurrect his career.
Step Back: Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
Moving from the Vikings’ offense to Seattle may be somewhat similar in terms of the general system, but make no mistake about it: this is a far worse situation than he was in last year in Minnesota, where he revitalized his career.
The Seahawks just dealt away their top target in DK Metcalf—and while Jaxon Smith-Njigba is developing into a nice player—they really don’t have anyone to run opposite him.
Yes… if they build the offense back up around Darnold and hit on all the right pieces in the draft and free agency—he has a chance to replicate the success he had in Minnesota, where he threw 35 touchdown passes last season…
But otherwise, this could be tough sledding for Darnold.
Step Foward: Justin Fields, New York Jets
After a couple of really painful years for Jets fans, they should have some reason to be excited heading into the 2025 NFL season with the changes they made at quarterback.
Justin Fields looked good during the beginning of the 2024 campaign for the Steeler before Mike Tomlin made the ill-fated decision to hand Russell Wilson the starting job again…
Furthermore, Fields speed helps mitigate their concerns around the offensive line, which, admittedly still linger—and with all the talented skill players on the offensive side of the ball, we could see Fields really start to thrive.
We’ve seen flashes of Fields’ upside. We’ve seen him carve up defenses with his legs, and we’ve seen him make some high-level throws—but there’s always been something missing.
However, the fit with new offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, who worked under Ben Johnson in Detroit—a system that was creative, dynamic, and explosive last season—might be the best opportunity of his career—and we expect Fields to capitalize.
In addition to the scheme, the personnel seems to suit him well too. He enters the squad with baked-in chemistry with Garrett Wilson from their Ohio State days is already established, and the rest of that group in New York makes up a pretty solid supporting cast with Breece Hall and co ready to prove Rodgers was holding them back.
Step Back: Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
If you told a Lions fan a couple of years ago after they dealt away Matthew Stafford for Jared Goff—that he would be playing the best football of his career, leading one of the most electric offenses in the NFL, they probably would have assumed you were playing some elaborate joke.
Everything clicked for Detroit last season—Goff was poised, efficient, and more aggressive than he had ever been. Nearly 5,000 yards passing, 38 touchdowns, and the kind of offensive dominance that had fans genuinely believing this team could make a Super Bowl run.
Unfortunately, Ben Johnson is no longer there—meaning Jared Goff is going to have to learn to mesh with yet another OC—and that could certainly lead to some regression.
Which would be tough for Lions fans, especially with the sour taste in their mouths following their one and done exit from the playoffs last year, in which Goff played none too well.
Granted, he set the bar high, but don’t expect another season like last year’s out of Goff… There’s a lot of pressure on him now, and without Johnson’s steady hand guiding the offense, we should expect to see his production take a noticeable dip.
Step Foward: Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
Look, his rookie season was ugly. But let’s be real—he had nothing to work with and heading into 2024, for Bryce Young , expectations were so low that he almost had to exceed them.
The crazy thing is—it took him getting benched and his career being put on life support for him to do so, even with Dave Canales, who orchestrated Geno Smith’s resurgence in Seattle coming in as the head coach, but in any case—he did in fact exceed them!
Young played really impressive football in the second half of the year after he found his way back into the lineup—to the point that even the most cynical Panthers fans are starting to believe and see the vision again.
If Carolina can make one or two strategic moves around him this offseason, we won’t be surprised if we see a Pro Bowl year out of the form of an Alabama star.
Step Back: Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The former number one overall pick in the 2018 NFL draft, the quarterback Cleveland cast aside, the guy who bounced from Carolina to Los Angeles, has seemingly found a home in Tampa Bay.
To his credit, he stabilized a team that was supposed to be spiraling post-Brady, led them to a division title, and played the kind of football that made people remember why he was once a top draft pick in the first place.
Unfortunately, with offensive coordinator Liam Cohn moving across the state to take the head job for the Jaguars—and his star receivers, Mike Evans and Chris Godwin another year older—we could see Baker start to regress this season.
Step Foward: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Okay, this one might sound weird. How can Mahomes “take a step forward” when he’s already the best QB on the planet?
Well, for starters, he could put up the kind of season that forces the media to stop pretending that there are better quarterbacks out there in the NFL.
Between all the noise on the internet and TV—factored into the embarrassment he suffered during the Super Bowl, expect Mahomes to enter 2025 on a full-blown revenge tour—determined to remind everyone exactly who he is as a player.
And for all the noise about a “down year” he still completed just under 70% of his passes for 4607 yards and 31 touchdowns to 13 picks, with the bulk of those coming in the first half of the season.
Mahomes is still Mahomes… regardless of what happened in this past Super Bowl.
Look for him to come out on a revenge tour that should strike fear into the hearts of opponents across the AFC and the broader NFL landscape. Mahomes is primed for a big statistical bounce-back—and, most likely – another deep playoff run.
Step Back: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford is one of the toughest quarterbacks in the NFL. He’s played through injuries, bad rosters, and years of mediocrity in Detroit and still managed to win a Super Bowl with the Rams.
But here’s the reality—he’s another year older, and his favorite weapon is gone.
Granted, he still has a superstar in Puka Nacua, but Cooper Kupp was his go-to guy, his safety net, and the receiver he had unbelievable chemistry with. And now he’s been pushed out the door.
Yes, Los Angeles has one of the top offensive minds in Sean McVay leading the way, but eventually it is going to get dark in the twilight of Stafford’s career—and based off how he performed for the bulk of last season—this could be the year.
Expect another year of occasional flashes of the player he used to be—with even more frustrating games mixed in!
Step Foward: Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
Jordan Love wasn’t just good in the second half of the 2023 season—he was sensational down the stretch. Over his final eight games, Love put up 18 touchdowns to just one interception, leading the Packers to a playoff berth and a dominant Wild Card win in Dallas—where he outdueled Dak Prescott in his own building.
Which played a significant role coming into the 2024 NFL season, where everyone had him firmly established in elite quarterback status. Unfortunately, things didn’t go exactly as planned.
Love battled a few nagging injuries—as he was continually plagued by the interception bug.
It wasn’t horrible, but it didn’t quite meet the expectations that emerged after his impressive end to the 2023 season.
The other interesting piece is that Love took a lot of heat for the Packers playoff exit, but considering how Mahomes looked against that same Eagles defense, well, this one has actually aged pretty well.
Look for Love to get back on track in a major way in 2025.
Step Back: Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray came out firing to start 2024, and for a minute, it looked like he might actually drag Arizona into the playoff picture, but as is often the case with Murray, the wheels came off.
Murray had no answers offensively and found himself in third-and-long situations way too often, and instead of making quick decisions, he hesitated—a lot.
Murray has all the talent in the world—he’s got the arm, the mobility, and the playmaking ability—but he still struggles to process defenses quickly. He still holds onto the ball too long. And when things break down, he reverts to backyard football mode, which rarely works against top-tier defenses.
Unless Murray underwent some major changes this offseason, there is no reason to expect he does anything, but continues to disappoint out in the desert.
In fact, we believe we might see him take another step back as his “act” continues to get stale in the locker room—and opposing defenses continue to wise up to the clear patterns in his game.
