Previously, we ran an article on every team’s draft pick that Mel Kiper was horribly wrong about.
But the legendary NFL analyst deserves some credit for the picks that he calls correctly, too! And trust us, this man has hit the jackpot on a lot of them.
Here is a look at every NFL team’s draft pick that Kiper was most accurately right about.
What were Mel Kiper’s most accurate analyses in the NFL Draft?
Arizona Cardinals: Patrick Peterson
Kiper released his final first-round mock one day before the 2011 NFL Draft. This class was loaded with future superstars and Hall of Famers, and Kiper hit the jackpot on several prospects.
Among them, Kiper had the Cardinals taking LSU cornerback Patrick Peterson with the No. 5 pick.
Peterson spent 10 seasons with Arizona, racking up eight Pro Bowl and three first-team all-pro selections. He was also named to the 2010s All-Decade Team.
Click on ‘Follow Us’ and get notified of the most viral NFL stories via Google! Follow Us
Atlanta Falcons: Brett Favre
Favre was drafted 33rd overall by the Atlanta Falcons in 1991. In his draft report, however, Kiper listed Favre as the No. 17 prospect, and he predicted the Kansas City Chiefs to take him 21st overall.
Mel Kiper noted that Favre “has a strong, powerful arm” and that his “Delivery is outstanding.” Finally, he wrote that Favre “has the natural ability and overall attitude to make the successful transition to the NFL.”
Three MVP awards, a Super Bowl ring, and Hall of Fame induction later…
Baltimore Ravens: Joe Flacco
Matt Ryan was the first QB drafted in 2008. Kiper had suggested that if Delaware product Joe Flacco had gone to a bigger school, there’d be a greater debate as to which quarterback would go first.
“When you have an arm that is that big, all you need is an audience,” Kiper stated.
There was indeed a phase where he threw the NFL’s best deep ball. See: Mile High Miracle against the Denver Broncos. He also led the Ravens to a Super Bowl 47 championship.
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
The 2018 NFL Draft consisted of five highly-touted QB prospects: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.
In his “mock draft, Kiper projected Allen to go first overall to the Cleveland Browns. And he defended the selection to Stephen A. Smith on First Take.
Based on his MVP-caliber 2020 season, it’s safe to say that Allen is the 1A or 1B quarterback of the 2018 class. Him or Jackson. Take your pick. Mel Kiper knew what he saw in Allen, and it’s a good thing the Bills agreed with his take.
Carolina Panthers: Christian McCaffrey
Everybody knows that it’s risky to draft a running back early. But Kiper had no issues with the Panthers taking Stanford running back seventh overall in 2017. In fact, he LOVED the selection.
Didn’t McCaffrey put up the third 1,000/1,000-yard season in NFL history in 2019? Another home run of a call by Kiper.
Chicago Bears: Kyle Fuller
The Bears took the Virginia Tech corner 14th overall in 2014, and Kiper’s take on Fuller was near 100 percent accurate. In his draft grades, Mel Kiper wrote that “Kyle Fuller may not be a star at CB, but the floor is probably a really good player for a long time.”
EXACTLY! Fuller earned two Pro Bowl selections but was never quite in that class of ELITE corners. And he spent seven seasons with the Bears. So, yes, that is a really good player for a long time.
Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. Green
The Bengals hit home runs with their first two picks in 2011. They took AJ Green fourth overall before landing Andy Dalton in round two.
Kiper wrote that Green would fill the voids left by Terrell Owens and Chad Ochocinco and that he would “make all the plays.” Finally, Kiper also stated that Green is “as ready as any player in the draft to help a team.”
Correct. Green caught 65 passes for 1,057 yards and seven touchdowns and helped the Bengals claim the final wild-card spot in the AFC. It was the first of five straight playoff seasons for the long-struggling franchise.
Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel
Manziel was one of the most polarizing prospects ever. We all know how much Skip Bayless believed in his ability to succeed at the NFL Level. But on ESPN First Take, Mel Kiper warned Bayless about his giant bust potential.
And Kiper’s take sure aged well.
Dallas Cowboys: Zack Martin
Jerry Jones wanted to take Manziel here, but the Cowboys wisely settled on Notre Dame guard Zack Martin at No. 16 overall. The Hall of Fame awaits the perennial Pro Bowler when he retires.
Kiper credited Dallas for passing on Manziel. He stated that the Martin selection made the Dallas o-line “arguably among the top few units in the NFL”. Kiper also saw Martin as a top-10 talent.
Denver Broncos: Tim Tebow
Like Manziel, this media darling and Heisman Trophy winner had a high ceiling but also a super-high bust potential.
Kiper said that Tebow was an H-back and that he had never thought of him as an NFL quarterback. Mel Kiper also suggested that a team draft him in round three or four.
Well, the Broncos took Tebow 25th overall in 2010. He was there for just two seasons, and though Tebowmania was fun for half of the 2011 season, it was clear that he was never suited to be a long-term NFL QB.
Detroit Lions: Matthew Stafford
We can keep this one short and sweet. In 2006, Kiper was quoted as stating the following on ESPN Radio:
“Matthew Stafford eventually will be the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft. Write that down.”
Spoiler alert: Stafford was drafted first overall by the Lions in 2009.
Green Bay Packers: Aaron Rodgers
Even though they already had Brett Favre at quarterback, the Packers opted to choose Rodgers at No. 24 overall.
After the pick, Kiper said quote “.You just can’t pass on the opportunity to get Brett Favre’s heir apparent and give him some time to learn from one of the best passers ever, even though he won’t help them win this year.”
In his 2005 draft report, Mel Kiper also said he could “Light up a defense” if the o-line held up. Finally, Kiper said he’s “tough, confident” and “incredibly poised.”
Check. Check. Check. Check. Check.
Houston Texans: J.J. Watt
In his 2011 mock draft, Kiper had the Browns taking JJ Watt with the No. 6 pick. Kiper said, “You won’t find a more consistently disruptive and versatile player along the defensive line than Watt.”
Watt actually fell to the Texans at No. 11 overall. And Kiper’s take was accurate. From 2012 to 2015, there wasn’t a more consistently disruptive NFL player on the defensive line.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Leonard Fournette
Mel Kiper, to put it mildly, wasn’t the least bit smitten with the Jaguars’ decision to take the LSU running back fourth overall in 2017.
In his draft grades, Kiper gave the Jaguars a C+. But he questioned how good Fournette would be behind the Jacksonville o-line. And though he didn’t question Fournette’s talents, Kiper said quote “I’m just not a fan of taking running backs early when other needs can be addressed.”
Fournette had two 1,000-yard seasons with the Jaguars, but he only lasted three seasons there before falling out of favor. They passed on future superstars Jamal Adams, Christian McCaffrey, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Tre’Davious White, and Marshon Lattimore. Yikes!
Indianapolis Colts: Trev Alberts
With the No. 5 pick in the 1994 draft, the Colts took Nebraska linebacker Trev Alberts. And it led to one of the most iconic NFL draft moments EVER.
Alberts played just three seasons in the NFL. He recorded only four sacks and three forced fumbles.
Kansas City Chiefs: Patrick Mahomes
A month before the NFL draft, Kiper explained why he thought Texas Tech star Patrick Mahomes was the best QB of the 2017 class ahead of Mitch Trubisky and Deshaun Watson.
Mel Kiper was perfectly accurate on his assessment of Mahomes a month ahead of the draft:
“He can sling it. He has a heck of an arm. He’s adept at throwing the deep ball. He can move around. He has very underrated mobility.”
Kiper said he’d be surprised if Mahomed didn’t go in round one. Well, the Chiefs traded up to snag him at No. 10 overall. And he’s only the best player in the NFL right now.
Las Vegas Raiders: Amari Cooper
The Raiders spent more than a decade wasting high-end first-round picks. A year after they nailed the Khalil Mack pick, the Raiders took Alabama Amari Cooper fourth overall in 2015.
Let’s just say Kiper was ALL OVER the selection. Mel Kiper said he wasn’t sure if any other club “hit a bigger home run early in the draft.” He also said Cooper “is in some ways a pass-catching version of Mack — he does everything well.”
Cooper’s tenure with the Raiders only lasted three and a half seasons, but hey, he performed up to Kiper’s expectations.
Los Angeles Chargers: Melvin Gordon
The Chargers traded up to take the power running back 15th overall in 2015. And though Kiper noted he doesn’t usually like taking RBs early, the draft guru was fine with this one.
Kiper said Gordon was “a massive upgrade” in the RB depth chart and said Philip Rivers could be a little happier if the rushing game improves. Gordon rushed for over 800 yards in three seasons with the Chargers, totaling 36 touchdowns in his five years there.
Los Angeles Rams: Steven Jackson
With Hall of Famer Marshall Faulk nearing the end of his career, the Rams took his successor with the No. 24 selection in 2004. Mel Kiper gave the Rams’ draft haul a B and shared this tidbit on Jackson:
“Marshall Faulk has made only 21 starts over the last two years, so Steven Jackson is a perfect fit as the heir apparent at running back.”
Jackson was a three-time Pro Bowler who recorded eight 1,000-yard seasons with the Rams.
Miami Dolphins: DeVante Parker
Kiper gave the Dolphins a “B” grade for the 2015 draft, mostly because of the Parker selection. He said the Louisville wideout “has the chance to be special and fills a clear need for them.” Kiper also thought Parker could have gone several picks earlier.
It took a while, but Parker finally broke out with the Dolphins in 2019 to show his potential as a No. 1 receiver. And yeah, he probably should have gone earlier than the 14th.
Minnesota Vikings: Christian Ponder
The QB-needy Vikings took a chance on Christian Ponder at No. 12 overall in 2011, but this didn’t exactly impress Mr. Kiper.
He said the Vikings “reached” for Ponder and wondered if he could have been had later, pointing out that Andy Dalton went 35th overall.
Ponder went a disappointing 14-21-21 over four years as a starter, with 38 touchdowns against 36 interceptions. Yep, this was a giant reach, alright.
New England Patriots: Jimmy Garoppolo
Before the 2014 draft, Mel Kiper put together a list of sleepers, which included Garoppolo. He also said that Jimmy G “could be the next name called” after Derek Carr and Teddy Bridgewater.
Garoppolo went 62nd overall to the Patriots. And yes, he was the first QB taken after Carr and Bridgewater were selected. Not to mention that Garoppolo put together a stellar career as the San Francisco 49ers’ starter.
Sleeper indeed.
New Orleans Saints: Marshon Lattimore
If it weren’t for hamstring injuries, Lattimore could have been drafted in the top five. But the Saints happily took the Ohio State corner with the No. 11 selection, and Kiper was thrilled with the pick:
“Marshon Lattimore comes with what I’d call an orange flag — not quite red — because of lingering hamstring issues, but if he’s healthy, he’s the top cornerback in the draft. This is an exceptional athlete (4.38 40) who can look effortless.”
Marlon Humphrey and Tre’Davious White will have something to say, but yes, Lattimore has made a strong case as the best corner of this draft.
New York Giants: Saquon Barkley
The Giants were widely expected to take Eli Manning’s successor with the No. 2 pick in 2018, but they couldn’t pass on generational running back prospect Saquon Barkley.
Kiper said Barkley “will probably be great”, which he is. But he criticized the decision to take an RB this early, noting that the value is past round one. He thought the Giants should have chosen Eli’s heir apparent, and Mel Kiper opined that Sam Darnold should be there.
Well, he was right. Barkley has been a game-changing force when healthy. But the Giants passed on two top-notch QBs, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. So yeah, taking an RB that early was far from the wise move.
New York Jets: Jamal Adams
Adams was No. 3 on Kiper’s final top 300 big board for the 2017 draft. Kiper said Adams is “built for today’s NFL as a versatile safety who can play in the box effectively, make tackles against the run and move to the edges and track slot receivers.”
BINGO. The Jets took Adams sixth overall, and he filled out Kiper’s scouting report perfectly. An elite safety who flies all over the field as a run-stopper and pass rusher to go along with his slick coverage skills.
Pittsburgh Steelers: JuJu Smith-Schuster
The Steelers found another hidden gem receiver after round one in JuJu Smith-Schuster, who went 62nd overall in 2017.
Mel Kiper believed Smith-Schuster could have gone earlier in round two. The analyst said JuJu has “No. 1 potential. I love his competitiveness and willingness to block.”
Smith-Schuster has played like a No. 1 receiver, leading the team in yards during the 2018 season. And there’s no denying his strong personality and competitive nature. Mel also got this evaluation right.
Philadelphia Eagles: Dallas Goedert
The Eagles’ decision to take the South Dakota State tight end at No. 49 overall in 2018, simply put, left Mr. Kiper in awe. He called Goedert the steal of the draft.
Yeah, we’d say Goedert has qualified as a steal.
San Francisco 49ers: Frank Gore
Mel Kiper remarked that Gore was a first-round talent in 2005, but he slipped to the San Francisco 49ers at No. 65 overall. Boy was Kiper right, and boy, did Gore prove 31 other teams wrong.
All Gore has done is piece together a Hall of Fame career, one that sees him sit third all-time in career rushing yards.
Seattle Seahawks: Rick Mirer
The Seahawks drafted the Notre Dame QB with the second overall pick in 1993. Well, Kiper only had him ranked as the 33rd-best prospect in the class.
Mel Kiper was right about Mirer not being such a high-end pick. The latter, who played with five different teams, only won 24 of 68 career starts with 50 touchdowns against 76 interceptions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lavonte David
Kiper compared David to Buccaneers legend and Hall of Famer Derrick Brooks. Though David hasn’t quite reached that level of dominance, he’s been one of the game’s top linebackers of the past decade, leading the Bucs to a Super Bowl 55 championship.
Oh, and let’s take a look at this claim that aged very, very well.
Indeed. Much more productive than so many other first-rounders from that class.
Tennessee Titans: Taylor Lewan
Kiper ranked Lewan as the No. 5 prospect in the 2014 draft. The Titans got him 11th overall, and Kiper remarked that you “Can’t knock the pick” while emphasizing his strong run-blocking game.
Uh-huh! Just ask Derrick Henry about Lewan’s run-blocking skills, along with his three Pro Bowl selections.
Washington Football Team: Brandon Scherff
Washington took Scherff fifth overall in 2015. Here we are more than half a decade later, and look at just how accurate Kiper was here:
“I know there are questions about whether Brandon Scherff can stay at tackle in the NFL (he was a LT at Iowa), but even if he’s a guard, while the pick value loses a little, the guy is a true mauler, a player who makes the run game better the second he steps on the field”
Correct all around. Scherff made the switch to guard and is one of the league’s best at the position. It was one of the few home run first-round picks Washington made in the 2010s.
