At this point, pretty much everyone involved accepts that no matter how much tape is watched, data is analyzed, and college coaches are consulted, the NFL Draft will NEVER become a perfect science—especially not when Mel Kiper is picking!
There are just too many factors that go into whether or not a player is successful at the next level: their passion for the game, their work ethic, their durability, how they fit into their new coaches’ schemes…
And, no matter how much better our methods for evaluating talent get – the mistakes will still happen, and players will still bust.
While it is frustrating when our teams miss, the coin is two-sided. Sometimes, our favorite teams end up landing a player that should have gone way earlier in the draft, who ends up being a game-changer for the entire organization, like when Aaron Rodgers fell to the end of the first round for Green Bay.
Besides, we also get the added benefit of watching all of the NFL “draft experts” try to sort out the madness, a process that involves a slew of mistakes displayed for the entire world to see.
Let’s take a look at a draft pick—good or bad—from every team around the league that these so-called “draft experts” were horribly wrong about!
What were the biggest blunders that Mel Kiper had in the NFL Draft?
Arizona Cardinals: Andre Wadsworth
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Andre Wadsworth was a great story. Despite only getting recruited to play at one mid-major college, Stony Brook University in New York, Wadsworth threw caution to the wind and went to Florida State as a walk-on, where he turned himself into an All-American performer. Heading into the ’98 NFL Draft, he was a surefire top 10 pick.
Emphasis on 10… Because, as talented as Wadsworth was, in a draft with bonafide stars, like Peyton Manning, Randy Moss, and Charles Woodson – maybe ranking Wadsworth the number one overall prospect was a mistake.
Atlanta Falcons: Thought drafting Julio Jones wasn’t sure-handed enough
Julio Jones has been on the short list of “best receivers” in the NFL ever since the Falcons traded up to take him sixth overall in the 2011 Draft.
He has led the league in receiving yards twice and was named to an All-Pro team five consecutive seasons… Not bad for a guy that Mel Kiper claimed was not “sure-handed” enough to trade up for…
Baltimore Ravens: Said Stats are for losers talking about Josh Allen, but criticized Lamar’s completion percentage
Okay, while many of Kiper’s snafus are understandable given the unpredictable nature of evaluating college athletes – this one was inexcusable. Kiper took to national television and used the exact same logic, Lamar Jackson’s accuracy statistics to critique him, but was quick to say stats are for losers, when analyzing Josh Allen.
Something’s gotta give here, Mel!
Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen
Obviously, there was just something about Josh Allen that had Mel Kiper hot and bothered.
Between the contradictory analysis we just touched on – and his willingness to declare Allen the number one talent in a draft loaded with quarterbacks, guys like Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and the aforementioned Lamar Jackson, it seemed odd that Kiper was buying so much stock in the University of Wyoming product.
While Allen has looked decent in his first few seasons, it is already pretty clear he should never have been a number one overall pick.
Carolina Panthers: Jimmy Clausen
Alright… This one is a little bit of low-hanging fruit, but it is too good not to use, as it may be the most dramatic, incorrect draft prediction of all time. Ahead of the 2010 NFL Draft, Kiper and Todd McShay were debating the future of former Notre Dame star Jimmy Clausen.
Kiper, unprompted, went out on a limb and said, “If Jimmy Clausen is not a successful quarterback in the NFL, I’m done. That’s it. I’m out.”
Well, its been 10 years and Clausen hasn’t played in the NFL since 2015. Hey Mel, does seven career touchdowns and 14 interception qualify as “success?”
Maybe you should join Clausen in early retirement!
Chicago Bears: Mitch Trubisky
This one I will never really understand, but somehow the hype train went all in on Mitch Trubisky – in a draft class that featured the likes of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes…
Sure, hindsight is 20/20 – and those two have had torrid starts to their NFL careers – but Trubisky hasn’t even come close to the bar that Matt Ryan, the comp that Kiper tirelessly made ahead of the draft.
Cincinnati Bengals: Akili Smith
“Akili Smith will be a great NFL player,” and “the passer they’d lacked since Boomer Esiason.” This was Kiper’s take on Smith, following the QB’s phenomenal season at Organ after an insane junior college career.
Not only did Smith go just 3 and 14 as a starter in the league, before flaming out after four seasons, he was also taken ahead of NFL greats, like Edgerrin James, Tory Holt, Champ Bailey and Ricky Williams.
And to make matters worse, Mel Kiper would later use Smith as a reference point for why Cam Newton, the former NFL MVP, shouldn’t go number one overall. Talk about only digging your hole deeper….
Cleveland Browns: Johnny Manziel
At first, he was destined to be the number one overall selection. Then, he couldn’t see him “sliding out of the top eight.” The year was 2014, and the player, none other than the man formerly known as Johnny Football…
Although Manziel is still young, he hasn’t played in the league since 2016, and it seems unlikely we’ll ever see the troubled quarterback get another shot.
Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott
Check out this list of names… 1. Connor Cook 2. Cody Kessler 3. Carson Wentz. 4. Trevone Boykin. That was the top four senior quarterbacks that Mel Kiper had heading into the 2015 season. You know who was number five?
Dak Prescott, the future Rookie of the Year and two-time Pro Bowler, has saved the Dallas Cowboys from entering quarterback purgatory in the post-Tony-Romo era.
Denver Broncos: Tim Tebow
Tim Tebow was one of the most polarizing NFL players in recent memory, so it shouldn’t be a surprise that Kiper had a take or two on him. And, well, they both ended up being wrong.
For starters, he predicted Tebow would end up playing tight end or halfback in the NFL, both of which he staunchly refused to do.
Secondly, he predicted he’d get taken in the second or third round, dozens of picks later than the 25th overall slot that he was taken at – as a quarterback, by Denver.
Detroit Lions: Take Brady Quinn over Calvin Johnson
“If the Lions pass on Brady Quinn, it would be yet another in a long line of questionable decisions.” That was Kiper’s position ahead of the 2007 NFL Draft – a hill he proved willing to die on even after the Lions ended up taking Georgia Tech star Calvin Johnson.
You know… The wide receiver who ended up going to six straight Pro Bowls and led the league in receiving yards back-to-back years.
Green Bay Packers: Matt Hasselbeck waste of a 6th-round pick
While Matt Hasselbeck was never Tom Brady, he did pretty well for a sixth-round pick, earning three trips to the Pro Bowl and even leading the Seahawks to a Super Bowl appearance in ’05.
It’s not bad for a late-round pick, which Mel Kiper referred to as “a waste of a pick.”
Houston Texans: David Carr would not be a bust/disappointment
Before Deshaun Watson, the Houston Texans seemed doomed, possibly for all eternity, to endure mediocre to downright awful quarterback play. Year after year, they would head into the draft looking for “their guy.”
And while it took them up until recently when they landed Watson, Kiper was pretty confident that had a surefire win when they took David Carr with the Number one overall pick back in ’02.
“Carr now becomes the cornerstone of the Texans’ franchise. He is a franchise-caliber quarterback with accuracy and velocity reminiscent of another No. 1 overall pick, Troy Aikman.” Kiper said.
Needless to say, when you end up getting released in favor of Matt Schaub, you are NOT a franchise quarterback…
Indianapolis Colts: Trent Dilfer
Let’s turn back the clock to an oldie, but a goodie – when Mel Kiper had one of his worst takes ever on the 1994 NFL Draft.
After Indianapolis passed on the lowly Trent Dilfer, Mel Kiper told Chris Berman, “I think it was a typical Colts move; the Colts needed a quarterback. To pass up a Trent Dilfer when all you have is Jim Harbaugh — give me a break.”
No matter how dire your quarterback situation is, Dilfer, who had more career interceptions than touchdowns probably isn’t the answer. Especially considering they took future Hall of Famer, Marshall Faulk, with that second overall pick, Mel Kiper wanted them to use on Dilfer….
Jacksonville Jaguars: Blaine Gabbert
Ahh, Blaine Gabbert… Where to begin with Blaine Gabbert, the quarterback who, somehow, in 2011, sent draft experts, Kiper included, into a frenzy, thinking that he and not Auburn superstar Cam Newton should be the first quarterback off the board.
Carolina, who took Newton first overall, had the common sense to go with the can’t-miss prospect, but Jacksonville wasn’t so lucky, as the Jags ended up wasting the number 10 overall pick on the Missouri product.
Kansas City Chiefs: Ricky Stanzi would have the best career of the 2011 QB class
For someone taken as recently as 2011, Ricky Stanzi has quickly faded into obscurity, much to the chagrin of Kiper, who confidently predicted would develop into the best QB taken in the 2011 draft.
You know, the draft that featured Cam Newton…
A bold prediction, considering he went IN THE FIFTH ROUND!
Oh, and if you are wondering why he faded into obscurity so quickly, it’s because he never ended up throwing a single pass in the NFL. Nice pick, Mel.
Las Vegas Raiders: JaMarcus Russell
“Three years from now, you could certainly be looking at a guy who is certainly one of the elite top five quarterbacks in this league. Obviously, he’ll need a little time. But you’re talking about a 2-3-year period. Once he’s under center, look out, because the skill level he has is certainly John Elway-like.”
Raise your hand if you know who this quote was about… None other than former Raiders bust JaMarcus Russell.
Not only did Russell bust, he busted bad, lasting just three seasons in the NFL, playing 31 total games and completing 52.1 percent of his passes for 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions.
Los Angeles Chargers: Ryan Leaf (attitude asset)
Ryan Leaf was another all-time miss from Mel Kiper.
This is not just because Leaf never amounted to much in the NFL, but also because of the now-infamous quote Kiper had on the quarterback, claiming that “His attitude will be an asset in the NFL and give him a mental advantage.”
Yeah, what an attitude that guy had. On his way to 14 career touchdown passes, he started out hot with that “attitude,” skipping a symposium mandatory for all NFL draftees and incurring a $10,000 fine. That is exactly who you want leading your franchise.
Los Angeles Rams: Ki-Jana Carter next Bo Jackson
Ki-Jana Carter was phenomenal at Penn State, during his final season in Happy Valley running for 1539 yards and 23 touchdowns. There’s no denying that.
But when you go on national television and declare someone the next Bo Jackson, you better be sure. And he better not net 14 total starts and 3.6 yards per carry for his career.
Miami Dolphins: Brady Quinn over Ted Ginn Jr.
Wow… I guess Mel Kiper really liked Brady Quinn, huh…?
Although Ted Ginn didn’t end up a superstar in the league, the former number nine overall pick has carved out a nice niche in the NFL, returning kicks and making more than his fair share of plays in space during his career which has spanned 13 years now.
Kiper was not pleased, however, when he saw the Dolphins pass on Notre Dame’s Brady Quinn for Ginn, saying “You get a chance to take Brady Quinn at No. 9, and you take Ginn coming off a foot injury — not real polished as a wide receiver — you’ve got to be kidding me.”
Well, considering Ginn is still in the NFL and Quinn hasn’t played since 2014, when the Dolphins signed him off the scrap heap, I’d say that they made an okay choice.
Minnesota Vikings: Randy Moss
Randy Moss is widely accepted as one of the top five wide receivers to ever play in the NFL and the Vikings might want to thank Mel Kiper for helping to land him with the 21st overall pick, as the Draft Expert was very low on him.
Mel Kiper didn’t even have him as a top 12 player available, claiming he needed to “develop the skills of getting off press coverage and route running” like Kevin Dyson, who he did have in his top 12.
Neither receiver went in the top 12 and, well, it Dyson and his 18 career touchdowns never quite had the success that Moss did in the league.
New England Patriots: Tom Brady
At this point, everyone knows Tom Brady. He is recognized as the greatest quarterback of all time, despite falling all the way to the sixth round of the 2000 NFL Draft.
Unsurprisingly, Kiper had doubts about the future three-time NFL MVP’s viability in the NFL, wondering if Brady could “overcome that lack of mobility….”
Uh, yeah. I think it’s safe to say he did.
New Orleans Saints: Was really high on Reggie Bush out of USC
The 2006 NFL Draft was easily one of the most hyped drafts in recent memory. It featured two college stars, Vince Young and Reggie Bush, who were both rumored to be going number one overall.
Kiper was all in on Bush, the dynamic playmaker out of USC, claiming that even if he quit playing running back and entered the draft as a wide receiver, he’d still be worth a first-round pick. While Bush did have a nice NFL career, he never lived up to the impossible expectations Kiper had for him when he entered the league.
New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins (Heir Apparent to Eli, best QB in Draft)
To say that Mel Kiper was high on Dwayne Haskins would be an understatement. Ahead of the draft, he said, “Haskins is the most accurate passer in this class, and he’s a natural touch thrower,” Kiper said. “He’s going to sit in the pocket and drop dimes.” Going as far as to say that he would surely be the “heir apparent” to Eli Manning in New York.
The Giants ended up passing on Haskins and going with the Duke product, Daniel Jones, instead – and Haskins had yet to prove he has the “accuracy” that Kiper was raving about.
New York Jets: Geno Smith
Ahead of the 2013 Draft, Kiper actually flip-flopped on this guy a couple of times, but once April rolled around, he felt he really had a grasp on it.
The draft expert predicted that former West Virginia Mountaineer, Geno Smith, would go number four overall to the Eagles, citing Smith as a perfect fit for Chip Kelly’s offense.
And while overhyped quarterbacks slipping in the draft is common, to fall 35 picks to the Jets is a pretty significant miscalculation.
Not to mention that the Eagles also held the 35th pick and passed on Smith a second time!
Philadelphia Eagles: High on Nelson Agholor
Nelson Agholor is one of the most consistently disappointing players in the entire NFL… It feels like every season is going to be his season, until it isn’t.
And for someone who Mel Kiper praised as a “hands catcher” and “versatile,” he has proven to be neither at the NFL level.
Pittsburgh Steelers: T.J. Watt
It is never easy on the second brother that makes it into professional sports, especially not when the first, like J.J. Watt ends up being a bonafide star. Even though there were striking comparisons between J.J. and his younger brother T.J., Kiper was not sold on him being worth a first round pick.
And well, he was almost right, as the Steelers picked him up with the 30th pick in the draft. However, considering that just three years in, he has already earned two trips to the Pro Bowl and a first-team All-Pro selection, I’d say he was worth a first-round pick.
San Francisco 49ers: Kentwan Balmer (he was close friends with agent Gary Wichard, who represented Balmer. So many thought he was hyping the Balmer pick because of that.)
Here’s a guy that some of our younger fans may not even know about: Kentwan Balmer. He was the 29th overall pick of the San Francisco 49ers back in 2008, and while his three-year career and zero career sacks were distinctly unmemorable, the controversy he and Kiper found themselves embroiled in certainly was.
Kiper was linked to a pay-for-play scandal with Balmer’s agent, Gary Wichard, which at least would explain some of his—erhm—let’s call them “questionable” picks.
Seattle Seahawks: Russell Wilson
Okay, here are a couple of stat lines, one of which is still pending.
11 seasons, 22 starts, 31 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions.
1 season, 16 starts, 31 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
The first was Seneca Wallace, whom Mel Kiper likened Russell Wilson to, entire career. And the second, well, that was just Wilson’s 2019 campaign. Throw in six Pro Bowls and a Lombardi Trophy… enough said!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jameis Winston (high football IQ and an ability to read, anticipate, and process at a very high level what defenses are trying to do.)
The jury is still very much out on how good Jameis Winston will be at the NFL level, as he has given plenty of reasons to both doubt and believe in him.
But even if he continues on to a successful career, I doubt he will ever prove Kiper’s assessment that he has “a high football IQ and an ability to read, anticipate and process at a very high level what defenses are trying to do,” like Kiper claimed before the draft, as Winston may be the single easiest quarterback to scheme against in the entire NFL.
Tennessee Titans: Derrick Henry Third round grade
Derrick Henry has been a beast in the NFL. Sure, his statistics have been up and down, but in Kiper’s words, “stats are for losers,” and he was platooned early in his career. 2019 showed just how devastating Henry can be if given the reins as the feature back, which probably doesn’t come as a surprise to anyone who watched him play at Alabama.
That is, besides Mel Kiper, who worried that he didn’t have enough “wiggle” to garner first-round or even second-round attention in the draft…
Washington Redskins: Said Connor Cook (went to Oak I think) would be better than Kirk for Redskins
Although his value has been debated nearly his entire NFL career – I think at this point we can all agree that Kirk Cousins is at the very least an above average NFL quarterback, right?
Well, back in 2016 when Cousins was still on the Redskins, Kiper was confident he had found his replacement in Connor Cook, the former Michigan State signal caller. Yes, the Connor Cook that was thrust into the starting role in Oakland after Derek Carr and Matt McGloin went down with injuries, and looked like a deer in headlights.
Maybe Cook will parlay his XFL stint into another go at the NFL, but considering he couldn’t even win the quarterback competition for the Houston Roughnecks, well, I wouldn’t get your hopes up.
